San Diego Housing Bubble News and Analysis

SDR I am not really concerned about the preciseness of the numbers on foreclosures.
Just so you know I appreciate the way you are handling the scrutiny about selling. I have a client who wants to sell and buy, so on the one hand I am telling them about the problems of waiting(to sell) and the problems with jumping in (to buy)! I thought about something after reading your response to JWM. If the really "bearish" guys like me are wrong our reputation for being savy Realtors gets creamed, not to mention we will have squandered lots of business. So it makes sense that a Realtor would not go too far out on a limb for self preservation resons. I am sticking to my guns but I think I will get more open to the clients we have been talking about who just want to or are somewhere in the process of making a house swap. Average first time buyers need really strong counseling towards being patient and getting themselves in the best position the can be in. The risk is, and it has happened to me over and over,that they just go buy with someone else. I am learning to counsel people without losing them and I am getting a list of buyer clients that will be loyal to me when ever they buy.

Hi Rustico -

As an electrical engineer I am anal about data and numbers. So the link to the foreclosure website was cool but man, the NODs and REOs varied by like 40% compared to the info I was getting from my title officer. So I need to raust my title officer and see why they are not getting me all of the recording information. I was curious to see if others who have connections with title companies are getting correlated data.

I guess somehow I have given the posters an impression that I am not bearish on the market. I am most likely as bearish as you it is just that in some cases I guess I am more... forgiving.. (for lack of a better term) to some people considering making a purchase as long as some of the basic caviots for which I have repeated ad nauseum are adhered to.

What you said is really true, average first time buyers REALLY REALLY need serious counseling and all you can do is give them guidance but you cannot watch them 24 hours a day. I told this story many months ago on Piggington... First time buyers down in Eastlake of all places. I worked with them for about 3 months, showed them a zillion properties, begged them not to buy, went to the credit union with them many times to work with the loan officer, set a limit on the prices they should offer, did an entire financial spread sheet of their monthly budget, the whole 9 yards.. made 5 or 6 lowball offers on places, offered them a smoking rebate... Did everything I absolutely could to counsel them to not buy, or at least if they were gonna buy to drive a hard bargain. In the end they got tired of all the lowball offers being rejected, went out one day and put a full price offer on a home that had PREVIOUSLY expired and was back on the market 1 day. The worked directly with the listing agent who held the open house...

What can ya do... I expect to see the house getting foreclosed on in another year or two...

As you have seen people will buy. I don't get it, I don't agree with them, and it confounds me. However they are out there. Shoot I will be one of them as I will end up buying before I want to... Of the clients I have had recently that have sold, many of them have been smart enough to sell and then rent...A few of them though, did end up buying. I told them my thoughts, ran through some projections of depreciating scenarios (up to 10% a year for 4 years from now) and they still moved forward.

SD Realtor

SDR devils advocate here. Since the last trough we have had some years of 30% appreciation interspersed with mostly relatively more moderate years. Why do you rule out the potential for drops bigger than 10% per year? On another thread I gave an example of a place that is already at 38% of the purcahse price and that was a market sale that occurred well before what people typically call the peak. It is in an outlying area and I doubt it is what anyone here wants but if it can happen there I am of the opinion it can happen here adn I have a educated hunch that it is about to.Also, although the revisonist history of the 1991 bubble burst doesn't show it, the market did in fact implode for the most part.I don't buy that "long and slow" has been reasoned out here yet?
I have been working my title contacts over about easements lately. That's a pain. I have never asked them about forclosure data. Do they give you addresses and loan information or just tallies? I am sure they
can give you that information but do they give it to you for all foreclosures in the county just like that?

Another thing people might want to take into consideration on this blog is how long ago the last bust was. Even Realtors that were working back then have to adjust to this market. For many Realtors it is the first time dealing with a down cycle. I would imagine that most the people that don't have the integrity and skill to deal with a down cycle have already left the business or will be leaving soon.
One more question, Do you do property mangement?

Hi Rus -

I do not rule out more then 10% drops annually. I to have seen many many cases where we have already exceeded that rate, bigtime... I just use that value as a possible outcome with the explanation that it could be better (not likely) and it could be worse. The probability for which depends (IMO) on the type of property and the location. I think every title officer is different. For the one I work with, he gave me a login to their system which covers all of SoCal. I type in zips, and date ranges to get NODs, NOTs and REO.

No generally I do not do property management. I think getting a qualified property manager is essential for certain types of landlords, (out of state, or hands off) but I manage my own rentals without a manager. For the most part I would refer people to a qualified property manager.

SD Realtor

I try not to get too wound up by any one piece of data (datum?). We should be looking for trends as demonstrated by a preponderance of data - the rule, not the exception.

Most of the time when I see a really heavy loss it becomes apparent that the conditions of the sale prior to that resale/loss scenario is what supersized the subsequent loss. Usually that preceding sale was really dumb and should have been caught at the lender's level, if nowhere else.

We're so busy looking at burning trees that it may not be apparent that the entire forest hasn't yet caught fire. Some areas are in full retreat, but there are still a couple areas and price ranges where that retreat is not so apparent to the naked eye.

Thanks SD R
I want to see if the title co. will give me a "binder" on properties I might want to buy at auctions in the future.I stayed off the court house steps last time for fear of clouds on title.

I am going to have to find a property managers I can refer to that won't work my clients. I don't want to do property mangement all over town either and my clients are generally "all over town".

BUGS
As always you make good points. I trust you as much as anyone here. We think the same things about the market and that makes me happy so it is O.K. if you keep me on track from time to time!
Thanks

Having a good relationship with a reputable TO is SUPER helpful. Especially if you are looking for yourself. That way prior to the auction you will already have had your TO run a prelinary report AND send you all recordings on the property. Right now I have a client in Oceanside and she has been running my TO (through me) ragged getting prelims, and stacks of recorded docs on the foreclosures she is interested in.

SD Realtor

I haven't logged in for some time because I didn't have anything to contribute. I read this thread and was concerned I somehow posted info on foreclosures that is confusing people. So this email is just to maybe (hopefully) clear up a question.

When I posted foreclosure data from RealtyTrac, the numbers for OC, LA and SD they were "raw" numbers. The NODs can sometimes include a piece of property that has more than one default against it so that might be the cause for elevated numbers.

There, now I go back into silence and watch the world turn!

DD

"Rustico said on May 21, 2007 - 12:20pm.

although the revisonist history of the 1991 bubble burst doesn't show it, the market did in fact implode for the most part.I don't buy that "long and slow" has been reasoned out here yet?"

Interesting, I wasn't paying attention to real estate at that time. My impression was a slow esculator ride down. But it was peaks and valleys? Or falling off peaks then valleys, then falling, valley, falling. Or falling, dead cat bounce, falling, dead cat bounce.

Ya, I'm on the sidelines watching. Would be nice to see a chart of the last housing decline. So I could know what to expect. Would be nice too if I quit spending so much time reading Piggington's because I don't think I will be buying for a long time (happy/bitter renter/investor) ;). But I can't stop reading Piggington's.

I think I might have to call myself on lack of data before some one else does :)! An implosion was my street level perception and I would even say experience of what was happening. I do know that foreclosure and other data alone does not support what I am saying about a great early 90's bust on a county wide level and I shall make a mental note to remember that.I think that would show a slide,county wide, through the 90's with some extreme lows spread around in each year and then growing strength since around 98'. I am still tryin to figure out why the union tribune would have us believe that the median price decrease was something like 15% peak(89) to trough (98) I mistrust that and call it " Revisionist" But I think I am starting to see the light as to why I could have seen what I did and a number like that isn't a lie or at least not as big of a lie as I have been in the habit of believing it was. If my perception is not completely on track it may be skewed by the fact that I was of a "Bargain Hunting" mentality in general and more familiar with areas at that time that did in fact have some very large and broad price declines early on . It is that old logic problem of using the exceptions for the rule.It was ugly though!But that is about the last cycle and I can be wrong about this new one until proven otherwise!Faster and deeper it is!
Best wishes

Hi, been lurking a while and enjoying the reading. Rich has a couple nice charts with Case Shiller valuations, both nominal and real, right here:

http://piggington.com/historical_home_pr...

J

Hi Jonny,
Yeah that's ths story. Thanks for putting it up.
I "lurked" for close to 1 1/2 year before posting. I wonder what the record is?
Best Wishes