San Diego Housing Bubble News and Analysis

When I looked at the picture of the children room in that house, it gave me a very sad feeling. People with dreams and love and family and especially kids are going to be ruined by this downturn of real estate.

f*** all the liars who contributed to this mess.

KIBU, (these) people can live in homes without owning them. That's what the rest of us do.

Patient renter in OC

That should sell well.

It's another no money down, paid too much, variable intrest rate story.

Wow. On one tiny street (50-ish homes) we have:

1271 Silver Hawk Way (2,963 sf) - $750k to $791k, original sale $608k (??)
1304 Silver Hawk Way (3,096 sf) - $650k, original sale $911k
1308 Silver Hawk Way (3,381 sf) - $610k to $626k, original sale $1.06m
1315 Silver Hawk Way (3,136 sf) - $700k to $725k, original sale $918k
1316 Silver Hawk Way (3,080 sf) - $686k, REO
1319 Silver Hawk Way (3,381 sf) - $775k, REO
1327 Silver Hawk Way (3,136 sf) - $625k to $650k, original sale $894.5k

1260 Silver Hawk Way (2,565 sf) - REO, currently unlisted
1328 Silver Hawk Way (2,909 sf) - was foreclosed and sold as a REO to a knife catcher for $740k

BTW I'm willing to bet twenty bucks that
* It's a short sale for at least $200k below their loan balance
* They haven't talked to the bank recently
* If you make them an offer for $610k, bank will decline the short sale

esmith, I agree with you. But in my opinion, it's the trend that is our friend here. This particular low list price might be rejected, but the important part is that another lower plateau has been breached. That means many more will follow and some of those will sell thereby setting the new comps and continuing the downward spiral.

Would you have even dared to hope for such a listing even 1 year or 2 years ago? No way. This is more pressure in our favor (and good news for all regular families, actually).

When I looked at the picture of the children room in that house, it gave me a very sad feeling. People with dreams and love and family and especially kids are going to be ruined by this downturn of real estate.

f*** all the liars who contributed to this mess.

When I look at the pictures of that house, I saw a relatively new Mitsubishi Eclipse parked outside, really nice upgrades inside (nicer than my own home), lots of new toys for the kids that probably cost a fortune, and a buyer that paid $1million to live in Chula Vista . I can't fathom too much sympathy here, because it appears there was overspending by these folks across the board. I do feel sorry for the kids.

The interesting thing will be if this family qualifies for any bailout, if they are even going to think about taking the bailout plan, given a $400k+ shaving on the value...Not to mention that in Chula Vista, it's probably going to get even worse than better better.

One slightly off topic question: I see so many new home buyers buy a new car right after they move in. Why is that? I would think that after one makes such a large purchase, that one would want to be more financially conservative the first year or so- just in case he/she underestimated expenses. But more often than not, I've seen several new home buyers trade in their cars for a new one just a few weeks after they move in. Possible kickbacks?

I think it's because they are intoxicated by the high that spending brings, and they are also trying to keep up appearances like everyone else in the neighborhoods. And let's not forget, the mortgage folks tell you not to dork with anything that will affect credit ratios until after closing. When you think about the expenses associated with buying a new home, the last thing I'd want to spend money on is a car! Window treatments, landscaping, furniture, etc...it's a fortune!

2 years ago some people says prices might go down 30-40% and I laughed at them. Wow.

Would you have even dared to hope for such a listing even 1 year or 2 years ago? No way. This is more pressure in our favor (and good news for all regular families, actually).

What really amazes me is that people really paid 900k-1m for those houses a year or two ago. In 2005, you could have gotten a new 3000 square foot house in 4S Ranch for high 700's. Yes it's a different part of town but come on. Even the climate is better in 4S Ranch. Especially if you have kids. Would you rather have your children rub elbows with illegal aliens and kids from Chula Vista ghettos, or send them to a school with good demographic in Poway school district?

From my experience, mortgage brokers generally ask their clients if they are planning on buying a new car anytime soon when they qualify them. At least the good mortgage brokers I know do. They tell them to hold off until after closing because it will improve the rate they get as their FICo and debt ratios will be better. So its probably a matter of folks deferring new car purchases not intoxication.

"Would you rather have your children rub elbows with illegal aliens and kids from Chula Vista ghettos, or send them to a school with good demographic in Poway school district?"

Chula Vista is not ghetto, National City (which borders Chula Vista), South Bay, City Heights, these are ghetto. Get your facts straight esmith.

Although I do agree with the fact that the closer you get to the border, the uglier and dirtier some areas get, I disagree that Chula Vista isn’t just as good as some of the neighborhoods further up North. Chula Vista happens to have very nice areas and good school: Rolling Hills, Eastlake, Bonita, and some areas in old Chula Vista which happen to be very nice as well. I think it’s unfair to judge Chula Vista in a negative manner just because there are a higher percentage of immigrants. I have been a resident in old Chula Vista since we moved from Tennessee 8 years ago. We sold our condo back in May in old Chula Vista, and currently we rent in the nicest part of Chula Vista hoping that prices will fall even more so that we may purchase our home – target area—Rolling Hills/Eastlake.

Just out of curiosity, are you familiar with the nice areas of Chula Vista, have you ever visited esmith?

"Chula Vista is not ghetto, National City (which borders Chula Vista), South Bay, City Heights, these are ghetto. Get your facts straight esmith."

Otay Lakes and Eastlake are not ghettos, but some areas further to the west are lower-middle-class neighborhoods, especially west of 805.

One way to look measure "ghetto"'ness is the percentage of free/reduced price lunches (i.e. percentage of poor/ghetto kids in a school). In 4S Ranch and RB it's something like 5-8%, in Eastlake it goes up to 15-20%. Although, even that is much better than district averages of 40%-ish in Chula Vista and Sweetwater districts.

Also the demographic does not help. Not that I'm a racist (I'm an immigrant myself) but I'm not sure if my kids would fit in well in a school where only 20% of kids are white.

they took it back without firing a shot

I'm missing the pun joebaduba, do you mean that its no longer listed?

Are there any realtors from Chula Vista area that can comment on this street/neighborhood? Would SD/sdrealtor peruse few listing to check sales prices from 2005? Thanks

Just curious, I did a property tax search on 1308 SILVER HAWK.

Tax records says the assessed value is 850,000, and was 9/1/06 (perhaps it was reassessed down). Also, according to the tax records, this is no home owner exemption on this property (maybe an investement property???)

Rules for qualifying are that you get out of all payments before you buy and then load up afterwards because you're IN!
In 1990 I moved from the midwest and a 9 buck an hour job to San Diego and lived in a North Park 1 bedroom. It sucked but I got rid of the payments and was in a house within a year. Then I bought all the toys. San Diego rules are the real estate pays for the toys. It's always been that way....just don't get caught when the music stops.

pun is... California once was a part of Mexico. I'll leave it at that.

I live in the "older but nicer" part of Chula Vista west of 805, but it slips as every year goes by.

Sure, this house is in a nicer part of eastern CV, but unless it is really some impressive spread, which this is not, I can't believe homes went for 7 figures anywhere down here.

Reduced to 579,900 :-O

And it looks like he has some competition:

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printa...

Will one of them have the honor of being the first Eastlake/Otay Ranch McMansion to break $150/sf barrier, or will some knife catcher (or two) jump in and stop the race to the bottom?

Or maybe it'll be this one?

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printa...

Not quite a McMansion (measly 2107 sf) but very aggressively priced and it's a REO so we know that the price is "real".
At $351,500, it's very close to breaking another important barrier - the first house to sell for 50% off the peak...

Thanks for posting this esmith!

I notice that they had the money for a massive (looks to be 65-70") flatscreen and what looks to be some nice furniture. Apparently the house payment was an afterthought.

I love it!

price range lowered to $579K-$596K. How about Half price?

"Would you rather have your children rub elbows with illegal aliens and kids from Chula Vista ghettos, or send them to a school with good demographic in Poway school district?"

Wow!! and you are not a racist you say?? I wonder how you talk when you are with your friends and family. Damn! The sad part is, many of the people in this blog probably agree with you.

De Niro, you can't win any arguements here. The racial overtones run rampant and yes many other people on this blog are of the same ilk. As soon as you throw it back in their face, first, they get all defensive, then they team up and go on the offensive. Same old same old. Try to get past the racist morons and read the site for what it is intended. That's what I do. There are many good folks that post on the site with some great input, then you get the racists who try to substanciate their racist comments with a bunch of double -talk. No sense arguing with a fool. Porkman

Enough dropping the race card. It's no secret that Chulajuana is full if illegal alians, of course so is all fo SD and the entire country for that matter. I don't know anyone who is not concerned about the illegals all over the place and I'm not even a Republican. I guess we're all racists.

I rest my case. Porkman

It's just funny that he asserts he is not a racist. I wonder what esmith considers a racist... I don't think he realizes all of the assumptions in the comment he posted.

Okay porkman, where do you live since you are so open minded? If you are going to label people on this board anything, it would be elitist, not racist. We are generally successful, educated and make good money. It is common sense that we would not want to live in neighborhood full of poor people, trailer trash, etc. would you?? It just so happens that the poor areas of SD are full of illegals. Get a clue dude.

Need I say more? They will do anything to get a rise out of you. I learned along time ago to get past the rhetoric and focus on the purpose of the blog. Don't play into it. Pretty soon the rest will crawl from their holes to chime in , wait and see. Porkman