Predictions for 2008

User Forum Topic
Submitted by Jumby on January 6, 2008 - 7:25pm

Feel free to give your predictions for what will happen in 2008 with the housing market, financial markets, president, etc...and we'll dig up this thread this time next year...

Submitted by kev374 on January 6, 2008 - 7:33pm.

Home prices down 15-18%
Foreclosures reach record highs by Q2

Submitted by juice on January 6, 2008 - 9:01pm.

Economy tanks, housing market continues to slide and Obama wins the Presidency by a landslide. I am a Republican living in Iowa and watched the recent caucuses very closely. Young voters came out in masses to vote for him, and many Republicans I know - especially moderate ones - changed their registrations and voted for Obama. He's gone from tied w/Hillary to up 10% in one day in New Hampshire, and just wait for South Carolina where 50% of the democratic electorate is black.

The headlines between now and the South Carolina primaries will be the massive shift in the polls of the black vote that will swing to Obama from Hillary there. Prior endorsements aside, if you are black - leader or not - you don't want to be on the wrong side of history. On the GOP side, who's going to stop him? At a time when the electorate is fed up with the status quo, fed up with Bush, fed up with Congress, losing their jobs and houses etc. - Obama rides in with youth, vigor, intelligence, charisma and no real specifics other than 'hope', 'change' and and the 'dawning of a new tomorrow'.

The specifics will come once he takes office in the form of higher taxes, national healthcare and a radical liberal agenda to placate his base. He has never been in charge of anything in his life other than law review and his own campaign staff, so watching him run the largest, most powerful country on earth and negotiating eye to eye with the likes of Vladimir Putin should be interesting. 'Hope', 'change' - it is so intoxicating. He sounds just like Martin Luter King (ref his Iowa victory speech), is likable, and the last thing we need is another evangelical elected (ref Iowa coffee house chatter I overheard nearly every day).

And so begins a tsunami shift in political power that will be touted as a new era in politics - a day when the Gen Xers and Millineals grabbed power from the boomers and WWII generation (I can see the headlines already), and also a day when a quarter century of Republican coalitions built around social conservatives, economic conservatives and defense hawks offically collapsed.

As you may have guessed, I'm guessing this will not be a very good year:) To quote a more liberal relative of mine, "You can have all the experience in the world, and still not know how to run the White House." Faulty logic - but one that I believe will deliver the Presidency to Obama.

Submitted by Tuba on January 6, 2008 - 9:35pm.

Great piece Juice!

I am a Gen Xr and I am an Independent. I was going to vote for Giuliani when it looked almost certain that Hillary was going to be the Democratic nominee. But, you can't compete with "Obama rides in with youth, vigor, intelligence, charisma and no real specifics other than 'hope', 'change' and and the 'dawning of a new tomorrow'." I believe Giuliani is a take charge and get things done kind of guy, but Obama has peaked my interest with what you wrote. It will be a tough decision when it comes down to November, if your prediction is correct.

Submitted by bubba99 on January 6, 2008 - 9:37pm.

" "You can have all the experience in the world, and still not know how to run the White House." Faulty logic - but one that I believe will deliver the Presidency to Obama.

Not sure the logic is faulty. The learned, experienced leaders in Washington have started an un-endable war in the mid-east, led us to a housing disaster, let the dollar fall to new lows, while the American worker is losing jobs and wages to overseas global companies. The potential for their lax regulation of financial markets to lead us into a new depression has never been greater - how much derivative action does an efficient market need to hedge prudent transactions? The FDA and EPA have been gutted. Border security is a joke. Health is beyond 40% of Americans.

Short of leading us into WW3, how could an in-experienced leader do much worse?

Submitted by stansd on January 6, 2008 - 9:41pm.

San Diego Housing Market drops 15%.

Fed lowers interest rates to 3% by year end.

Recession is officially declared, but interest rate cuts cause the dollar to fall further and CPI inflation goes over 4%.

The Euro hits $1.45, the Yen hits 100/$, and gas goes over $4.00 per gallon.

Stock Market Drops 20% from 2007 End.

John McCain beats Obama in the national election as republicans flock to him in masse, and Obama's inexperience pulls enough independents into the McCain camp. If Bloomberg enters a three way race, Obama wins.

Foreclosures skyrocket, social acceptability of walking jingle mail is cemented, and banks start to voluntarily write loans down and freeze interest rates rather than foreclose.

Unemployment hits 6%, and $50K in the bank becomes as fashionable as a hummer was 2 years ago.

Stan

Submitted by sdrealtor on January 6, 2008 - 9:54pm.

My prediction is that someone else starts a thread asking for people's predictions by the end of February.

Submitted by lendingbubbleco... on January 6, 2008 - 9:58pm.

I predict my landlord loses one of their houses in foreclosure.

Submitted by kev374 on January 6, 2008 - 10:09pm.

Fed lowers interest rates to 3% by year end.

Recession is officially declared, but interest rate cuts cause the dollar to fall further and CPI inflation goes over 4%.

I agree with this. I think Fed will cut interest rates, like it or not!! Runaway inflation is too scary but what are we going to do about it? I feel so sorry for the middle class in this country that is literally being raped by this government and it's fiscal policies!!

Submitted by jimklinge on January 6, 2008 - 10:56pm.

30-year fixed rates under 5.25% for conforming loans by May 1st.

Jim the Realtor

Submitted by DWCAP on January 6, 2008 - 11:59pm.

"I agree with this. I think Fed will cut interest rates, like it or not!! Runaway inflation is too scary but what are we going to do about it? I feel so sorry for the middle class in this country that is literally being raped by this government and it's fiscal policies!!"

Runaway inflation is scary, but a slow bleed. Stock market falling 200+ points in a single day is seen by the general public as an artery poping. Problem is the government doesnt want to be seen as doing nothing, so they choose the slow bleed that MAY get them reelected. The problems can always be addressed later. The middle class doesnt understand the problem, and doesnt want to. I know, I and all of my friends are middle class (atleast right now). BTW this is the same reason Obama wins, IF he takes NH. People know things arent good, just dont know what to do about it. Since they dont know the problem, it is ok that he doesnt have an answer.

Predictions for 2008,
Stocks are only down alittle overall, maybe 5%. Not because the ecomony is good or anything, but because there is a boatload of cash floating around the world looking for somewhere to go. As a poster on here posted, the lending spigets are on full blast, if your assets are good. This isnt a lending crunch, it is a crappy asset crunch (over-priced housing included). As such, housing falls another 10% and FED rates touch 2.5%. Suddenly housing, while not good, isnt such a bad asset anymore and banks wont be taking in the ass with so many forclosures. Recession is finally recognized, but since that which is pulling us down is patched up, things dont ever get too bad.

Submitted by Dukehorn on January 7, 2008 - 12:33am.

The irony of seeing someone complaining about Senator Obama being on the Harvard Law Review after that poster probably voted for an alcoholic who scraped by with Cs during his academic career and also lied repeatedly to the American public about critical foreign policy issues (as opposed to sex) is too rich (and depressing).

I bet teaching real science as opposed to creationism is part of that scary radical liberal agenda?? Seriously after the last 8 years and all that botched spending in Iraq, you're going to complain about wasted spending and taxes in the upcoming administration?

Submitted by Enorah on January 7, 2008 - 12:40am.

The shift in consciousness that is already underway greatly accelerates. By year's end it is even more obvious that we must perceive ourselves as Earthlings first, here on this beautiful planet, and begin taking care of each other.

Everyone will manifest more and more quickly externally what it is they feel and think.

Submitted by snail on January 7, 2008 - 11:44am.

stansd wrote "The Euro hits $1.45, the Yen hits 100/$, and gas goes over $4.00 per gallon"
Its not a prediction if these already the rate:
Euro is 1.46 already, Yen 109.... and I just don't remember paying 4.00/gallon for gas but probably that's already happened too. Come on Stan....get with program, would you.

Submitted by poorgradstudent on January 7, 2008 - 1:21pm.

Home prices will continue to fall nationwide. I'll put San Diego at overall -10% from the start of the year. The NRA will call bottoms almost monthly, especially when prices flatline (or slightly uptick) during the Spring buying season.

Q1 will see a barely positive, nearly flat growth of the economy (think +0.1% or so). Q2 will go negative, and by Q3 we'll officially be in recession. By the end of 2008 the recession will be almost over.

Despite rampant inflation, the nominal value of the dollar vs. other currencies will stabilize as Europeans continue flocking to the US for tourism and buying up cheap goods.

Obama will win the Democratic nomination and defeat whoever emerges from the muddled Republican group, as none of them can carry both fiscal and social conservatives. The Democrats will also pick up a couple seats in the Senate, and make modest gains in the house.

The new administration will have their work cut out for them; an expensive war in Iraq that continues draining our nation's coffers, Stagflation, and the ticking time bomb that is Baby Boomers retiring and straining Social Security. Still, 2009 will likely bring a return to Bill Clinton-style economics, gradually leading to a return to prosperity for the Middle Class, and general grumbling by the Very Rich.

Submitted by stansd on January 7, 2008 - 5:24pm.

Its not a prediction if already the rate:

Snail: Start by constructing a sentence that has all of the necessary parts of speech.

Many on this board think the Euro will advance further, so a Euro that holds is a prediction. If you don't think a 8% change in purchasing power on the yen or a 20-30% change in the price of gas are predictions, then you need to check your head.

If you want to be a wise-ass, put your own predictions up for others to scrutinize.

Stan

Submitted by Bugs on January 7, 2008 - 6:07pm.

I'm thinking 2008 will bring a solid 10%-12% decline in average values, sales volumes will drop to their lowest levels in 20 years, and standing inventories of must-sell listings will increase to historical highs.

I'm also predicting that I'll spend most of 2008 in a constant state of nausea as a result of overabundance of political pheremones that will contaminate our environment.

As far as I'm concerned, our nation deserves the government it elects. Those of you who are so inclined are welcome to interpret that comment however you wish.

Submitted by gold_dredger_phd on January 7, 2008 - 6:51pm.

I predict the weather in 2008 will be very much like the weather in 2007, except different.

Submitted by HiggyBaby on January 7, 2008 - 10:35pm.

I predict a 20% drop in the overall Case-Shiller numbers for home values (Averaging low, medium, high targets together).

Price of regular gas peaks at $4.25 in San Diego.

I predict that I'll continue to rent..... ;-)

HiggyBaby

Submitted by sdworker on January 7, 2008 - 10:43pm.

Nicely said Enorah. Glad that I am not the only real estate / financially oriented person that also is into the evolution of the human consciousness. I second your prediction and add that we will see millions more experiencing Oneness and seeing the total and utter connection of everything in the universe. This will create a tipping point of moving a large chunck of humanity away from the state of mental torture that we subject ourselves and others to, including the planet, and to a place of more love. See "Awakening Into Oneness" by Arjuna Ardargh for more details.....

Submitted by Jumby on January 7, 2008 - 10:48pm.

pass me some of the stuff you are smoking on...puff puff give

Submitted by SD Realtor on January 7, 2008 - 11:38pm.

I predict Indy covers the line over the chargers on Sunday.

I sincerely hope I am wrong and that the bolts pull the upset.

SD Realtor

Submitted by nostradamus on January 7, 2008 - 11:53pm.

I would have said the same thing until I saw the Titans game. If Gates' turf-toe injury isn't too bad I think our boys can do the job. This past Sunday was a good proving ground. I think if any team can do it this one can. Gates, LT, and Rivers are playing well together. The D is playing an awesome game too, they've had some nice interceptions. I thought they were gonna get a safety or two in that last game.

Submitted by snail on January 8, 2008 - 8:29am.

Stan,
I pass, as I sound like Pat Robertson when I make predictions.
Curious why you think the Euro not going to advance further, do you think there will be intervention by the European Union or that the european economy would more be affected by the US slowdown (compared to the Japanese, asian market in general)

Submitted by Enorah on January 8, 2008 - 9:27am.

Submitted by sdworker on January 7, 2008 - 9:43pm.

Nicely said Enorah. Glad that I am not the only real estate / financially oriented person that also is into the evolution of the human consciousness. I second your prediction and add that we will see millions more experiencing Oneness and seeing the total and utter connection of everything in the universe. This will create a tipping point of moving a large chunck of humanity away from the state of mental torture that we subject ourselves and others to, including the planet, and to a place of more love. See "Awakening Into Oneness" by Arjuna Ardargh for more details.....

Excellent!

I completely agree

Submitted by flu on January 8, 2008 - 9:52am.

Prediction for 2008:

 

1) Brittney Spears checks into a mental ward...again.

2) Lindsay Lohan smacks up another supercar, while still denies she's a drug addict, and finally gets her license revoked...permanently...

3) Hulk Hogan makes his son drive a Yugo for a year.

4) Borat makes a sequel

5) Knight Rider, as come-back tv series, is as disasterous as the original series, especially with the producer choosing a Ford GT500KR to play KITT instead of something from the GM..WTF??

6) Abercrombie and Fitch, in a bid to boost sales, launches yet another provocative apparel like it has done so in the past.

 

7) Elections in Taiwan will be a joke again.

 

8) Japan will still piss of China for visiting the WWII memorials.

 

9) One of the Big 3 automakers will merge with one of the other two.

10) GM will finally release a Camaro

11) Toyota and Honda will continue to build nice appliances

 

And we never hear about any of the above as a top news story again on CNN..Oh but one can dream...

 

 

 

selfportrait

----- Sour grapes for everyone!

Submitted by cr on January 8, 2008 - 11:22am.

Piggington.com
I predict we will see another politically charged "contributor" to these forums who misses the point of most topics, derails each post into political hot-button issues, then accuses the rest of us of being ignorant, bitter, and wrong about everything in the world, then in a parting post asks for advice, while further insulting us.

Politics.
Obama will not win, and if the democrats don't start offering solutions and a better candidate the republicans will. Democracts and their finger-pointing followers will continue to blame Bush for everthing that's wrong in their life and the world.

Economy.
Housing down 15%, stock market up negligible, FED lowers rates to start, then raises them as in/stagflation and a weak dollar cripple spending. Saving money no longer laughed at.

Sports.
China wins the gold in gymnastics, and Clemens continues to deny he ever did steroids, even after it's proven with an newly discovered bloodtest that he did. Patriots lose, and the '72 Dolphins continue to blab, even though the '07 Dolphins would destory them.

Submitted by andymajumder on January 8, 2008 - 2:02pm.

Well so far this year,

Dow is down more than 5% and NASDAQ is down nearly 8% in 5 business days. Probably one of the worst starts to a year in recent history.

Submitted by FormerSanDiegan on January 8, 2008 - 3:21pm.

My predictions ...

San Diego real estate will "Party Like It's Nineteen-Ninety-Three."

Early in the year the real estate industry will produce a mantra such as ...
"We'll be fine by 2009"

By fall the mantra will become...
"We'll be up again in 2010"

Eventually they will be correct

Submitted by k_pip_k on January 8, 2008 - 3:30pm.

Nice post, I concur with most everything you said, but...

"He has never been in charge of anything in his life other than law review and his own campaign staff, so watching him run the largest, most powerful country on earth and negotiating eye to eye with the likes of Vladimir Putin should be interesting."

Are you referring to Bush, the worst, most corrupt, incapable, most unintelligent president ever here. I would say Obama is much, much better than that. Bush led Texas to last place in education, healthcare. Worst president for environmental policies. Biggest administration EVER, going against the Republicans own platform for fiscal responsibility. Biggest deficit EVER, from a surplus.

Why do we forget certain things are remember certain things, but we let our emotions control our logic?

I just don't get it.

K

Submitted by gold_dredger_phd on January 8, 2008 - 9:32pm.

Politics is about wish fulfillment. Tell people anything they want to hear and if you are likable, you will get elected. Tell them that they can have their cake and eat their neighbors' too. Just say, "Hope", "Change", "Prosperity" and see which is a hit with the focus groups.

Carter was the worst president in recent history. Worst in the sense that he spared no opportunity to betray the interests of America every chance he got. A ten-part special in the Investor's Business Daily was done just to review all of his errors.

Profile in Incompetence:
http://www.ibdeditorials.com/Special3.aspx

Carter was an idiotic, phoney, inexperienced, mean-spirited, treasonous anti-American politician if there ever was one. His behavior since has been treasonous.