We were in Vegas recently and people were wearing Obama shirts everywhere! In the airport, in the casinos, at restaurants. Didn't see a single McCain shirt.
Submitted by TheBreeze on October 30, 2008 - 7:34pm.
svelte wrote:
lol - I take it you're an Obama fan.
We were in Vegas recently and people were wearing Obama shirts everywhere! In the airport, in the casinos, at restaurants. Didn't see a single McCain shirt.
Yeah, I think the old worn-out, discredited Republican philosophy of stealing from the middle class and giving to the rich has been banished forever. From now on, we're going to have a more fair society where everyone is given a chance to succeed.
asianautica, Obama must the The One. How do you otherwise, explain that all the political and economic events are lining up for him to be elected president?
It was just announced the 3rd quarter was in recession, another advantage to Obama.
Submitted by Butleroftwo on October 31, 2008 - 7:44am.
He will be the best President ever, to bash. He is easy. He is a Marxist, double speaking, racist, anti-Semetic, inexperienced, pandering, pick pocketing and crooked politician. He is the champion! Change will be fun.
Let’s just hope he doesn't get us into a pointless war. I was in Europe when Bush decided to invade Iraq. It’s funny how different the story was on the other side of the pond. They had a UN inspector in the country at the time. They wanted him to be allowed to finish his job. But the bush administration didn't allow him to finish his search for WMD. I wonder why. We looked like a bunch of war hungry idiots to them. That’s why most of the European countries didn't want any part of it. And McCain still stands by the war. We should never have started this. I can't imagine that McCain would be an better at making decisions about our national security. He would be more dangerous to our safety and economy.
Submitted by kicksavedave on October 31, 2008 - 11:43am.
He may not be the best President ever, but it's metaphysically impossible for him to be worse than our current president, so he'll be quite an improvement.
Obama would have to accidentally nuke London, Tokyo and Beijing to be worse than George W McCain.
He may not be the best President ever, but it's metaphysically impossible for him to be worse than our current president, so he'll be quite an improvement.
Obama would have to accidentally nuke London, Tokyo and Beijing to be worse than George W McCain.
I didn't know McCain won already? Wow, I must be living under a rock.
Submitted by Butleroftwo on October 31, 2008 - 1:41pm.
I forgot to add lazy to his traits.
BHO explains here that he needs to reduce his voter's expectations of his first term as President.
"Mr Obama himself was the first to realise that expectations risked being inflated"
My feeling is that his supporters are voting about 90% on their expectations, about 2% on qualifications and the rest other. He will be the first President that lets us down before the election.
That One said;
“The first hundred days is going to be important, but it’s probably going to be the first thousand days that makes the difference,”
Submitted by JPJones on October 31, 2008 - 2:06pm.
Obama will get credit for what he does, not what we hope he will do. I hope he turns out to be the best president in modern times, but I'm not holding my breath.
Submitted by meadandale on October 31, 2008 - 2:14pm.
I'm predicting that Obama is going to be Carter all over again. The country will flounder under his 'leadership' and a betrayed public will send him packing in 2012, along with his Democratic majority.
He's facing similar circumstances to those that Carter confronted when he took office: Economy was faltering, country was dispirited after Vietnam and Watergate and he promised a change from the status quo that had existed under Ford and Nixon.
The next President would have to be a miracle worker to successfully handle all of the challenges facing him and, in spite of his obvious intelligence, Obama is truly a neophyte when it comes to politics, especially the big league-type politics of the Presidency.
Bush had the same problems. He attempted to bluff his way through the job, but he had little to no actual experience, other than his time as governor of Texas. His business career, such as it was, was nothing to speak of and largely a function of Daddy's contacts and help. It was no wonder that he turned out to be the disaster he was.
gandalf: I think the Republican Party is going to have to spend some time in "the wilderness" and re-discover their core values.
McCain isn't representative of true Republicanism, nor is Palin. This ticket represents pandering to the Far Right and the lunatic fringe.
Another leader will eventually emerge (one always does).
BTW, the "new and improved" Gandalf is starting to frighten me. I miss the profanity and the retorts. Dude, if you've starting taking meds, dump 'em. It ain't worth it!
Submitted by Butleroftwo on October 31, 2008 - 3:45pm.
Your personal attacks keep me going, gandalf.
BHO is no where near the man you pretend that he is. Other than academia and community service his only job has been a politician. He spent very little time actually working as a lawyer. Do you think that he has ever made a profit on a job or has everything in his life come from a fund of some sort or another?
Submitted by meadandale on October 31, 2008 - 4:10pm.
gandalf wrote:
Obama can be a great President. Changes in energy systems would be huge. Peace in the Middle East. It's all related.
I certainly remember Carter promising both of those things 30 years ago. Perhaps most of you Obama koolaid drinkers weren't alive then? History is a fickle mistress.
Submitted by partypup on October 31, 2008 - 5:56pm.
LOL. Okay, Breeze, no secret that you're a major fan :-)
I'm surprised you're not even allowing for a narrow 273/265 McCain victory. I assume that is not even remotely a possibility, in your opinion? Even Intrade allows these odds.
I say this not because I think Obama will lose, but because this race, statistically speaking, seems to be a lot closer than anyone in the media seems to care to acknowledge. Given the margin of error in the polls I've been seeing (generally 3.5 - 4%), the large number of undecideds (as much as 8%), and (dare I say it) the Bradley/Wilder Effect, it would appear that there is at least 10% possibility that McCain could win.
“The new registrations thrown out, the existing registrations scrubbed, the spoiled ballots, the provisional ballots that were never counted — and what you have is millions of voters, more than enough to swing the presidential election, quietly being detached from the electorate by subterfuge.
"Jim Crow was laid to rest, but his cousins were not," says Donna Brazile. "We got rid of poll taxes and literacy tests but now have a second generation of schemes to deny our citizens their franchise." Come November, the most crucial demographic may prove to be Americans who have been denied the right to vote. If Democrats are to win the 2008 election, they must not simply beat John McCain at the polls — they must beat him by a margin that exceeds the level of GOP vote tampering.
Seriously I'm surpised about the victory laps being run here. I plan to bet a little money down at intrade.
Basically we need to watch where Obama spends his time. McCain has a good chance at Ohio and FL, and Obama has fiercely defended PA lately. This thing has the feel of tightening up and let's not forget the Bradley/Wilder effect.
Submitted by partypup on October 31, 2008 - 9:56pm.
"Seriously I'm surpised about the victory laps being run here. I plan to bet a little money down at intrade.
Basically we need to watch where Obama spends his time. McCain has a good chance at Ohio and FL, and Obama has fiercely defended PA lately. This thing has the feel of tightening up and let's not forget the Bradley/Wilder effect."
I think that where Obama and McCain spend their time is definitely telling. As I said above, Obama will likely win. But there are variables that can and may change that. Frankly, this is all entertainment to me. But while I am entertaining myself, this is the way I see the map now:
STATES THAT ARE *TOSS-UPS*, BUT REALLY AREN'T:
MO, AZ and MT: Realclearpolitics has these listed as "toss ups" because McCain has narrow leads. But it will be a cold day in hell when a man who wants to take away gun rights wins any of these states.
STATES MCCAIN WILL PROBABLY LOSE:
VA, CO and NM - Obama has decent leads outside the margin of error. Very likely that he will take all of these.
STATES THAT MCCAIN IS WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE OF:
NV and NH - It will be tough for McCain to win either one, no doubt. But I expect Obama to take one, McCain to take the other. McCain doesn''t have a shot unless he takes one of these states. But IMO, unlikely either candidate will take both.
STATES THAT ARE TOO CLOSE TO CALL, BUT TRADITIONALLY GO GOP:
North Carolina - this race is very close, but given the margin of error and the fact that there are probably no undecided black voters, and most undecided white voters will doubtless go for McCain, I'm going to say McCain takes this by a narrow margin.
GENUINE *TOSS-UPS*
OH - also very close, within the margin of error. And subject to tremendous amounts of fraud by both parties. History tells us that this state only goes to white Democrats by slim margins, so when the undecideds make their move, it's hard to see them tipping the scales in Obama's favor in a race this close in this state. If he hasn't sold them yet, doubtful he can do it at this late stage. But it's an economically savaged state, and that helps Obama. We're going to find out whether pocketbook matters more than race here.
FL - too close to call; a statistical tie. And like OH, this state is always a hard-win for even white Democrats. Anyway, it all comes down to turnout here.
THE STATE THAT WILL DECIDE THIS ELECTION:
PA.
If McCain loses FL and/or OH, PA s irrelevant. He loses the election. If McCain takes OH and FL, PA becomes critical. The fact that McCain and Obama are both spending so much time in PA makes me think that McCain believes OH and FL are his, if only by a narrow margin. He may very well be wrong.
But if he is right, PA will be the decider. PA is hard core redneck territory, esp Western PA. There are a good chunk of bitter Hillary voters, and it has one of the oldest populations in the country. Obama got slaughtered here during the primaries. And Murtha is suddenly in trouble -- polls are not favoring him. I think PA is much closer than the media is saying.
If McCain wins OH, FL and PA, the count is 273/265. If Obama wins OH, FL and PA, the count is 286/252.
Submitted by larrylujack on October 31, 2008 - 10:12pm.
I hate to be cynical, but don't get yer hopes up. the deregulated wild west US financial system has tossed the US economy and taxpayers a lead life preserver in the ocean that will sink us for many years, Palin's pseudo populism and Obama's hope nonsense notwithstanding. So much for the free market, I say round all the CEOs of AIG, Ctywide, Goldman, etc., and take em to Guantanamo and give em a taste of their free market wisdom.
Its also rather sad that the issues during the presidential campaign have turned into something that borders on the absurd with the smears and guilt by association (Case in point: Socialism? Pardon me, taxes are by definition redistributions, are MCsame/Palin suggesting getting rid of taxes altogether? Must be catering to the low information "dumb bots" that have not quite realized this yet and appear to be a sufficient proportion of the US idiot population.) The irony is that the MSM does not even question the premise of the bogus socialism accusation, particularly given that Palin's home state of Alaska lives on socialism from oil company largess and fees from Exxon et al.? Unfrickenincredible!!!
What a ...joke, does anyone wonder why we have become what we are?.
Frankly, the only difference between Oman and McSame, other than SCOTUS is that McSame will probably end it all with Nukes flying over some petty dispute with Russia or some other type of nonsense as rash decisions are his bad habit (see, Palin again). With Obama, at least my kids stand a reasonable chance of surviving until they are teenagers, albeit with Chinese overlords...
No one, including Obama, can save this ship when the creditors stop buying T bills, that is when the S... will really hit the fan.....
Happy Halloween.
Partypup, Obama has spent a lot of time in PA for a state that he is supposed to be comfortably leading. My guess is that they are fully aware that the good poll numbers are not enough. I mean don't get me wrong you'd rather be up 10, but that there are still so many undecided's in some of these states that it could break late either way.
The big question is do the fence sitters break Obama? The big energy Obama supporters are likely already with him.
Zogby released a poll with McCain pulling ahead 48-47 (national) in his 3-day tracking poll. I don't put a lot of stock in that poll either but this things seems to be tightening to me. Rumors of a Reagan-Mondale beatdown I just don't see happening. Two weeks ago I might have thought it possible. Today I think Obama was in Nevada for instance. Luckily for them they are well-funded.
Socrattt, you call lots of people ignorant. Now I don't like Breeze. He calls me a tard and I call him many nasty things during therapy sessions.
But honestly, just calling people ignorant because you disagree with them is a pretty weak argument.
I hope you have something better to bring.
Usually your arguments are a little more cogent but lately you sound like casca or maybe gandalf off his meds.
Or maybe Allan on angeldust. Now THAT would be a rad debate. (yes I said rad)
Submitted by urbanrealtor on November 1, 2008 - 1:20am.
CardiffBaseball wrote:
Rumors of a Reagan-Mondale beatdown I just don't see happening. Two weeks ago I might have thought it possible. Today I think Obama was in Nevada for instance. Luckily for them they are well-funded.
Okay but who seriously sees McCain being as crappy a politician as Mondale?
I like Mondale. I am a liberal. But come on. the man is almost as animatronic as the old Chuck E. Cheese or maybe Steve Forbes.
Submitted by equalizer on November 1, 2008 - 1:54am.
hard to believe that obama has gone from up 12 to down 1 in last week in zogby poll, most accurate right before election? not really, I said month ago why dems would lose. I was bashed, who is crying now? 273 for the win for mc. Note that MO winner wins WH for last 100 years. mc easy win in mo, so will win WH. Next time dems pick white male from south who has I love usa tatoo on his forehead, a solid gold cross on his neck aka Mr T and a socialists suck bumper stick on his Chevy pickup truck.
Submitted by equalizer on November 1, 2008 - 2:14am.
stock market will have huge rally with mccain win on wed. so buy SSO (double S&P) on mon or tues and you could have 20% gain on wed. if seas part and obama wins, market flat since market has factored in the obama depression with huge drop already. anyone see flaw in this trade? this is not a joke, this could really work, with limited downside, no?
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/ is now giving McCain a 2.8% chance to win. It's run by Nate Silver, a dude who got famous predicting baseball results for fantasy leagues based on nothing but numbers and statistics. Yeah, he's a self-proclaimed Obama supporter, but his methods are all there in the FAQ and open for scrutiny if you disagree with his results.
Submitted by partypup on November 1, 2008 - 12:51pm.
"http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/ is now giving McCain a 2.8% chance to win. It's run by Nate Silver, a dude who got famous predicting baseball results for fantasy leagues based on nothing but numbers and statistics. Yeah, he's a self-proclaimed Obama supporter, but his methods are all there in the FAQ and open for scrutiny if you disagree with his results."
I agree that by any statistical (and historical) measure, Obama is the overwhelming favorite to win. Bush had Obama's lead going into 2004, and he won. Granted, by only one state (OH), but he did win.
I think what bears repeating here is that this is no historically *ordinary* election. There are a lot of factors at play that should not allow one to presume victory for Obama. His leads in most battleground states are within the margin of error, and there are still an uncomfortably high number of undecided voters in those states. As Equalizer said, it is quite possible, even likely, that Obama has already persuaded most of the voters he will be able to persuade. If they have not come to his side of the tent by now, after all of the money, man power, media and Palin-bashing that has been amassed against McCain -- not to mention the financial meltdown -- you simply have to wonder what these people are waiting for. They have every reason to jump to Obama, but they haven't. That's the wild card here.
Also, Obama needs major youth turnout to put him over the top. Rachel Maddow admitted on MSNBC yesterday that in FL, at least, the young folks simply aren't showing up for early voting. Will they come out on November 4th? It's certainly possible. But the youth are notoriously flaky. And the fact that the media has been pounding a steady drumbeat of inevitability for Obama and defeat for McCain may tempt these slackers to stay home and attend to more *pressing* matters, like updating their iPhone with latest version of iTunes. Evangelicals, on the other hand, may be more fired up than ever by the prospect of an Obama victory. Don't forget, these folks will stand in line until the Rapture takes them.
On a curious side note, the famous "Obama Girl" (from the viral video) did not even vote in the NY primary because she had a manicure appointment.
Submitted by Shadowfax on November 1, 2008 - 8:39pm.
Butleroftwo wrote:
Your personal attacks keep me going, gandalf.
BHO is no where near the man you pretend that he is. Other than academia and community service his only job has been a politician. He spent very little time actually working as a lawyer. Do you think that he has ever made a profit on a job or has everything in his life come from a fund of some sort or another?
what have the other presidents done that anyone can hold up as perfect job experience? Reagan was an actor, Carter a governor, GW--ditto, HW--Chair of the CIA (probably the best qualified out there). HW failed at a lot of businesses (on daddy's dime). McBush divorced his sickly wife, crashed 5 planes, got caught by the enemy, didn't make admiral so ditched the military to become a senator. So where is the perfect resume for president?
If you believe liars and frauds are the best, than Obama will be the best ever.
You folks have no idea about this man's background. I'm from the south side of Chicago not far from where Obama lived. He moved after his politically connected felon friend (Rezko) helped him get a new home.
The man is trash. His friends are trash. Those buying Obama as an agent of change are buying a bill of goods. The only change will be whose pockets get the $. Those buying a new type of politics need only look at his record of partisanship (He nevers bucks his party leadership), flip-flopping (He said he would opt for public funding of his campaign) or non-commitment (He voted present instaed of taking a stand in the Illinois House)and lying (Despite attending Wright's church by his own estimates over 500 times in 20 years he claimed not to know of Wright having radical views when they were even posted on the Churches' website. He claims Ayers is just a guy who lived in the neighborhood but Obama was appointed to and sat on boards with this unrepentant terrorist and even started his political career in his living room. Ayers is a man for whom "whatever means necessary" is a life creed.)
This is the man many of you don't know but are about to vote for.
Take a look at the cesspool that is Illinois and Chicago politics. Is that where you think reformers come from? We've probably lead the nation in felons who were former elected officials. In my life 4 governors have gone to prison and a 5th may soon and he has extensive ties to both Rezko and Obama. Obama isn't a reformer. He wasn't an agent of change. He is the same old, same old backroom politician that takes from the rich and the poor to line his own coifers.
Felix: Well said. My dad and uncle are both from Chicago and my dad used to joke about Chicago politics and the Daley machine when I was a kid.
I remember him talking about the voter rolls being padded and dead people voting and stuffed ballot boxes and that sort of nonsense. "Vote early and often" was how he characterized Democratic politics in Chicago.
I opined earlier that I thought Obama's Rezko connection should be explored in more detail. Here you have two attorneys (Obama and his wife Michelle) involved in a very questionable real estate deal with Rezko and both claim ignorance when it came to reviewing and "understanding" the actual details (which were very fishy).
I agree with your sentiments about both the Ayers and the Wright relationships. Both go to the issue of character, as both Ayers and Wright have expressed fiercly anti-American views and, in Ayer's case, have acted on them. Ayer's famously said following the 9/11 attacks that he wished he exploded more bombs during his terrorist days in the 1960s and 1970s. And, yes, he is a terrorist. He has been whitewashed as of late as an "activist", but his involvement with the Weather Underground is well documented, as well as his activities with them, including the murder of a policeman.
It's funny how Obama is being sold as an "agent of change" and "post-partisan" politician, when a simple reading of his voting record completely belies both. But, people are ready for a change after eight years of the feckless Bush Administration and the Dems very adroitly packaged Obama for the job.
As the old adage goes: "Be careful what you wish for: You just might get it."
McBush divorced his sickly wife, crashed 5 planes, got caught by the enemy, didn't make admiral so ditched the military to become a senator. So where is the perfect resume for president?
Butleroftwo,
When you say... "got caught by the enemy" it sure implies that you think that POWs are somehow inferior soldiers because they got caught?
I think your little liberal brain needs to find another country to live in until you can show POWs some well deserved respect.
Submitted by gandalf on November 2, 2008 - 12:25pm.
larry, good post. Obama isn't the messiah, and problems we're facing are HUGE. But Obama's a step in the right direction -- away from the ideological right-wing and back towards a pragmatic center.
McCain, meantime, is borderline dementia, possible due to brain tumor. (I'm not joking. Check out his left eye next time.) His campaign has been all-slime and no-substance.
Palin? She's just a freak. She should go back to being Governer of that socialist oil-state up north.
urban, I might border on 'blunt' from time to time, but the arguments I've made on this board are substantive and direct. The GOP ran the bus into the ditch. Nobody to blame but themselves.
And just so you know I'm not on any sort of medication, Bush Apologists and GOP partisans are brainwashed SHEEP-fuckers.
In fairness, I'll think of something to say about democrats when they run the bus into a ditch of their own 10 years from now. That's just how American politics works.
lol - I take it you're an Obama fan.
We were in Vegas recently and people were wearing Obama shirts everywhere! In the airport, in the casinos, at restaurants. Didn't see a single McCain shirt.
We were in Vegas recently and people were wearing Obama shirts everywhere! In the airport, in the casinos, at restaurants. Didn't see a single McCain shirt.
Yeah, I think the old worn-out, discredited Republican philosophy of stealing from the middle class and giving to the rich has been banished forever. From now on, we're going to have a more fair society where everyone is given a chance to succeed.
He's beaten Ford and Carter hands down already, and he's not even been elected yet!
Workers of the World Unite!
Workers of the World Unite!
LOL
<
He has talked the talk alright.. lets see what happens when he actually has to make a decision regarding our national security(yikkkeesss).
You actually spent time constructing this poll?
You missed "Obama is THE ONE!"
asianautica, Obama must the The One. How do you otherwise, explain that all the political and economic events are lining up for him to be elected president?
It was just announced the 3rd quarter was in recession, another advantage to Obama.
Jesus Christ was Black, you know. ;)
He will be the best President ever, to bash. He is easy. He is a Marxist, double speaking, racist, anti-Semetic, inexperienced, pandering, pick pocketing and crooked politician. He is the champion! Change will be fun.
Let’s just hope he doesn't get us into a pointless war. I was in Europe when Bush decided to invade Iraq. It’s funny how different the story was on the other side of the pond. They had a UN inspector in the country at the time. They wanted him to be allowed to finish his job. But the bush administration didn't allow him to finish his search for WMD. I wonder why. We looked like a bunch of war hungry idiots to them. That’s why most of the European countries didn't want any part of it. And McCain still stands by the war. We should never have started this. I can't imagine that McCain would be an better at making decisions about our national security. He would be more dangerous to our safety and economy.
I hope this poll isn't representative of Obamocracy. Somebody's been watching the new Jim Carrey film :)
That George Washington guy wasn't so bad.
Someone's been brainwashed...
You got your poms poms on TB?
Will the national debt (general fund, currently 10.5T+) exceed GDP (currently 14.5T+) by the end of obama's first term?
oops-- pretend I didn't post the above until Tuesday/wednesday next week.
He may not be the best President ever, but it's metaphysically impossible for him to be worse than our current president, so he'll be quite an improvement.
Obama would have to accidentally nuke London, Tokyo and Beijing to be worse than George W McCain.
Obama would have to accidentally nuke London, Tokyo and Beijing to be worse than George W McCain.
I didn't know McCain won already? Wow, I must be living under a rock.
I forgot to add lazy to his traits.
BHO explains here that he needs to reduce his voter's expectations of his first term as President.
"Mr Obama himself was the first to realise that expectations risked being inflated"
My feeling is that his supporters are voting about 90% on their expectations, about 2% on qualifications and the rest other. He will be the first President that lets us down before the election.
That One said;
“The first hundred days is going to be important, but it’s probably going to be the first thousand days that makes the difference,”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/wo...
Obama will get credit for what he does, not what we hope he will do. I hope he turns out to be the best president in modern times, but I'm not holding my breath.
I'm predicting that Obama is going to be Carter all over again. The country will flounder under his 'leadership' and a betrayed public will send him packing in 2012, along with his Democratic majority.
Of course, I hope I'm wrong...
He's facing similar circumstances to those that Carter confronted when he took office: Economy was faltering, country was dispirited after Vietnam and Watergate and he promised a change from the status quo that had existed under Ford and Nixon.
The next President would have to be a miracle worker to successfully handle all of the challenges facing him and, in spite of his obvious intelligence, Obama is truly a neophyte when it comes to politics, especially the big league-type politics of the Presidency.
Bush had the same problems. He attempted to bluff his way through the job, but he had little to no actual experience, other than his time as governor of Texas. His business career, such as it was, was nothing to speak of and largely a function of Daddy's contacts and help. It was no wonder that he turned out to be the disaster he was.
Wow. Did he just say that?
Not sure how anybody could look at Obama's career to date and suggest he's 'lazy'. Maybe in an alternate reality, racist neo-republican world.
George Washington was the greatest President.
Eisenhower is my favorite President because he built roads.
Obama can be a great President. Changes in energy systems would be huge. Peace in the Middle East. It's all related.
The key to failure is the Republican Party, and whether the GOP decides to go 'apeshit-partisan' at the expense of the country. My guess is they will.
gandalf: I think the Republican Party is going to have to spend some time in "the wilderness" and re-discover their core values.
McCain isn't representative of true Republicanism, nor is Palin. This ticket represents pandering to the Far Right and the lunatic fringe.
Another leader will eventually emerge (one always does).
BTW, the "new and improved" Gandalf is starting to frighten me. I miss the profanity and the retorts. Dude, if you've starting taking meds, dump 'em. It ain't worth it!
Your personal attacks keep me going, gandalf.
BHO is no where near the man you pretend that he is. Other than academia and community service his only job has been a politician. He spent very little time actually working as a lawyer. Do you think that he has ever made a profit on a job or has everything in his life come from a fund of some sort or another?
Oops. I hit the button twice.
I certainly remember Carter promising both of those things 30 years ago. Perhaps most of you Obama koolaid drinkers weren't alive then? History is a fickle mistress.
Post deleted
LOL. Okay, Breeze, no secret that you're a major fan :-)
I'm surprised you're not even allowing for a narrow 273/265 McCain victory. I assume that is not even remotely a possibility, in your opinion? Even Intrade allows these odds.
I say this not because I think Obama will lose, but because this race, statistically speaking, seems to be a lot closer than anyone in the media seems to care to acknowledge. Given the margin of error in the polls I've been seeing (generally 3.5 - 4%), the large number of undecideds (as much as 8%), and (dare I say it) the Bradley/Wilder Effect, it would appear that there is at least 10% possibility that McCain could win.
You disagree?
Post deleted
I think there is a good chance it won't be decided on election day...
http://www.gregpalast.com/block-the-vote/
“The new registrations thrown out, the existing registrations scrubbed, the spoiled ballots, the provisional ballots that were never counted — and what you have is millions of voters, more than enough to swing the presidential election, quietly being detached from the electorate by subterfuge.
"Jim Crow was laid to rest, but his cousins were not," says Donna Brazile. "We got rid of poll taxes and literacy tests but now have a second generation of schemes to deny our citizens their franchise." Come November, the most crucial demographic may prove to be Americans who have been denied the right to vote. If Democrats are to win the 2008 election, they must not simply beat John McCain at the polls — they must beat him by a margin that exceeds the level of GOP vote tampering.
Seriously I'm surpised about the victory laps being run here. I plan to bet a little money down at intrade.
Basically we need to watch where Obama spends his time. McCain has a good chance at Ohio and FL, and Obama has fiercely defended PA lately. This thing has the feel of tightening up and let's not forget the Bradley/Wilder effect.
"Seriously I'm surpised about the victory laps being run here. I plan to bet a little money down at intrade.
Basically we need to watch where Obama spends his time. McCain has a good chance at Ohio and FL, and Obama has fiercely defended PA lately. This thing has the feel of tightening up and let's not forget the Bradley/Wilder effect."
I think that where Obama and McCain spend their time is definitely telling. As I said above, Obama will likely win. But there are variables that can and may change that. Frankly, this is all entertainment to me. But while I am entertaining myself, this is the way I see the map now:
STATES THAT ARE *TOSS-UPS*, BUT REALLY AREN'T:
MO, AZ and MT: Realclearpolitics has these listed as "toss ups" because McCain has narrow leads. But it will be a cold day in hell when a man who wants to take away gun rights wins any of these states.
STATES MCCAIN WILL PROBABLY LOSE:
VA, CO and NM - Obama has decent leads outside the margin of error. Very likely that he will take all of these.
STATES THAT MCCAIN IS WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE OF:
NV and NH - It will be tough for McCain to win either one, no doubt. But I expect Obama to take one, McCain to take the other. McCain doesn''t have a shot unless he takes one of these states. But IMO, unlikely either candidate will take both.
STATES THAT ARE TOO CLOSE TO CALL, BUT TRADITIONALLY GO GOP:
North Carolina - this race is very close, but given the margin of error and the fact that there are probably no undecided black voters, and most undecided white voters will doubtless go for McCain, I'm going to say McCain takes this by a narrow margin.
GENUINE *TOSS-UPS*
OH - also very close, within the margin of error. And subject to tremendous amounts of fraud by both parties. History tells us that this state only goes to white Democrats by slim margins, so when the undecideds make their move, it's hard to see them tipping the scales in Obama's favor in a race this close in this state. If he hasn't sold them yet, doubtful he can do it at this late stage. But it's an economically savaged state, and that helps Obama. We're going to find out whether pocketbook matters more than race here.
FL - too close to call; a statistical tie. And like OH, this state is always a hard-win for even white Democrats. Anyway, it all comes down to turnout here.
THE STATE THAT WILL DECIDE THIS ELECTION:
PA.
If McCain loses FL and/or OH, PA s irrelevant. He loses the election. If McCain takes OH and FL, PA becomes critical. The fact that McCain and Obama are both spending so much time in PA makes me think that McCain believes OH and FL are his, if only by a narrow margin. He may very well be wrong.
But if he is right, PA will be the decider. PA is hard core redneck territory, esp Western PA. There are a good chunk of bitter Hillary voters, and it has one of the oldest populations in the country. Obama got slaughtered here during the primaries. And Murtha is suddenly in trouble -- polls are not favoring him. I think PA is much closer than the media is saying.
If McCain wins OH, FL and PA, the count is 273/265. If Obama wins OH, FL and PA, the count is 286/252.
I hate to be cynical, but don't get yer hopes up. the deregulated wild west US financial system has tossed the US economy and taxpayers a lead life preserver in the ocean that will sink us for many years, Palin's pseudo populism and Obama's hope nonsense notwithstanding. So much for the free market, I say round all the CEOs of AIG, Ctywide, Goldman, etc., and take em to Guantanamo and give em a taste of their free market wisdom.
Its also rather sad that the issues during the presidential campaign have turned into something that borders on the absurd with the smears and guilt by association (Case in point: Socialism? Pardon me, taxes are by definition redistributions, are MCsame/Palin suggesting getting rid of taxes altogether? Must be catering to the low information "dumb bots" that have not quite realized this yet and appear to be a sufficient proportion of the US idiot population.) The irony is that the MSM does not even question the premise of the bogus socialism accusation, particularly given that Palin's home state of Alaska lives on socialism from oil company largess and fees from Exxon et al.? Unfrickenincredible!!!
What a ...joke, does anyone wonder why we have become what we are?.
Frankly, the only difference between Oman and McSame, other than SCOTUS is that McSame will probably end it all with Nukes flying over some petty dispute with Russia or some other type of nonsense as rash decisions are his bad habit (see, Palin again). With Obama, at least my kids stand a reasonable chance of surviving until they are teenagers, albeit with Chinese overlords...
No one, including Obama, can save this ship when the creditors stop buying T bills, that is when the S... will really hit the fan.....
Happy Halloween.
Breeze, you are as ignorant as they come. You are so ignorant you are funny.
I think I heard you on the Howard Stern show the other day, you sounded very educated:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vhbH9IYirD0
Partypup, Obama has spent a lot of time in PA for a state that he is supposed to be comfortably leading. My guess is that they are fully aware that the good poll numbers are not enough. I mean don't get me wrong you'd rather be up 10, but that there are still so many undecided's in some of these states that it could break late either way.
The big question is do the fence sitters break Obama? The big energy Obama supporters are likely already with him.
Zogby released a poll with McCain pulling ahead 48-47 (national) in his 3-day tracking poll. I don't put a lot of stock in that poll either but this things seems to be tightening to me. Rumors of a Reagan-Mondale beatdown I just don't see happening. Two weeks ago I might have thought it possible. Today I think Obama was in Nevada for instance. Luckily for them they are well-funded.
I think I heard you on the Howard Stern show the other day, you sounded very educated:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vhbH9IYirD0
Socrattt, you call lots of people ignorant. Now I don't like Breeze. He calls me a tard and I call him many nasty things during therapy sessions.
But honestly, just calling people ignorant because you disagree with them is a pretty weak argument.
I hope you have something better to bring.
Usually your arguments are a little more cogent but lately you sound like casca or maybe gandalf off his meds.
Or maybe Allan on angeldust. Now THAT would be a rad debate. (yes I said rad)
Rumors of a Reagan-Mondale beatdown I just don't see happening. Two weeks ago I might have thought it possible. Today I think Obama was in Nevada for instance. Luckily for them they are well-funded.
Okay but who seriously sees McCain being as crappy a politician as Mondale?
I like Mondale. I am a liberal. But come on. the man is almost as animatronic as the old Chuck E. Cheese or maybe Steve Forbes.
I think I heard you on the Howard Stern show the other day, you sounded very educated:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vhbH9IYirD0
Here's another one:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7zsr0UpVjoE
I think this post's author may have been one of the Obama shills on the beach that day.
hard to believe that obama has gone from up 12 to down 1 in last week in zogby poll, most accurate right before election? not really, I said month ago why dems would lose. I was bashed, who is crying now? 273 for the win for mc. Note that MO winner wins WH for last 100 years. mc easy win in mo, so will win WH. Next time dems pick white male from south who has I love usa tatoo on his forehead, a solid gold cross on his neck aka Mr T and a socialists suck bumper stick on his Chevy pickup truck.
stock market will have huge rally with mccain win on wed. so buy SSO (double S&P) on mon or tues and you could have 20% gain on wed. if seas part and obama wins, market flat since market has factored in the obama depression with huge drop already. anyone see flaw in this trade? this is not a joke, this could really work, with limited downside, no?
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/ is now giving McCain a 2.8% chance to win. It's run by Nate Silver, a dude who got famous predicting baseball results for fantasy leagues based on nothing but numbers and statistics. Yeah, he's a self-proclaimed Obama supporter, but his methods are all there in the FAQ and open for scrutiny if you disagree with his results.
"http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/ is now giving McCain a 2.8% chance to win. It's run by Nate Silver, a dude who got famous predicting baseball results for fantasy leagues based on nothing but numbers and statistics. Yeah, he's a self-proclaimed Obama supporter, but his methods are all there in the FAQ and open for scrutiny if you disagree with his results."
I agree that by any statistical (and historical) measure, Obama is the overwhelming favorite to win. Bush had Obama's lead going into 2004, and he won. Granted, by only one state (OH), but he did win.
I think what bears repeating here is that this is no historically *ordinary* election. There are a lot of factors at play that should not allow one to presume victory for Obama. His leads in most battleground states are within the margin of error, and there are still an uncomfortably high number of undecided voters in those states. As Equalizer said, it is quite possible, even likely, that Obama has already persuaded most of the voters he will be able to persuade. If they have not come to his side of the tent by now, after all of the money, man power, media and Palin-bashing that has been amassed against McCain -- not to mention the financial meltdown -- you simply have to wonder what these people are waiting for. They have every reason to jump to Obama, but they haven't. That's the wild card here.
Also, Obama needs major youth turnout to put him over the top. Rachel Maddow admitted on MSNBC yesterday that in FL, at least, the young folks simply aren't showing up for early voting. Will they come out on November 4th? It's certainly possible. But the youth are notoriously flaky. And the fact that the media has been pounding a steady drumbeat of inevitability for Obama and defeat for McCain may tempt these slackers to stay home and attend to more *pressing* matters, like updating their iPhone with latest version of iTunes. Evangelicals, on the other hand, may be more fired up than ever by the prospect of an Obama victory. Don't forget, these folks will stand in line until the Rapture takes them.
On a curious side note, the famous "Obama Girl" (from the viral video) did not even vote in the NY primary because she had a manicure appointment.
Going to be a very interesting Tuesday.
BHO is no where near the man you pretend that he is. Other than academia and community service his only job has been a politician. He spent very little time actually working as a lawyer. Do you think that he has ever made a profit on a job or has everything in his life come from a fund of some sort or another?
what have the other presidents done that anyone can hold up as perfect job experience? Reagan was an actor, Carter a governor, GW--ditto, HW--Chair of the CIA (probably the best qualified out there). HW failed at a lot of businesses (on daddy's dime). McBush divorced his sickly wife, crashed 5 planes, got caught by the enemy, didn't make admiral so ditched the military to become a senator. So where is the perfect resume for president?
Urban,
Piggington's is therapy. Save your money.
If you believe liars and frauds are the best, than Obama will be the best ever.
You folks have no idea about this man's background. I'm from the south side of Chicago not far from where Obama lived. He moved after his politically connected felon friend (Rezko) helped him get a new home.
The man is trash. His friends are trash. Those buying Obama as an agent of change are buying a bill of goods. The only change will be whose pockets get the $. Those buying a new type of politics need only look at his record of partisanship (He nevers bucks his party leadership), flip-flopping (He said he would opt for public funding of his campaign) or non-commitment (He voted present instaed of taking a stand in the Illinois House)and lying (Despite attending Wright's church by his own estimates over 500 times in 20 years he claimed not to know of Wright having radical views when they were even posted on the Churches' website. He claims Ayers is just a guy who lived in the neighborhood but Obama was appointed to and sat on boards with this unrepentant terrorist and even started his political career in his living room. Ayers is a man for whom "whatever means necessary" is a life creed.)
This is the man many of you don't know but are about to vote for.
Take a look at the cesspool that is Illinois and Chicago politics. Is that where you think reformers come from? We've probably lead the nation in felons who were former elected officials. In my life 4 governors have gone to prison and a 5th may soon and he has extensive ties to both Rezko and Obama. Obama isn't a reformer. He wasn't an agent of change. He is the same old, same old backroom politician that takes from the rich and the poor to line his own coifers.
Best ever?
Felix: Well said. My dad and uncle are both from Chicago and my dad used to joke about Chicago politics and the Daley machine when I was a kid.
I remember him talking about the voter rolls being padded and dead people voting and stuffed ballot boxes and that sort of nonsense. "Vote early and often" was how he characterized Democratic politics in Chicago.
I opined earlier that I thought Obama's Rezko connection should be explored in more detail. Here you have two attorneys (Obama and his wife Michelle) involved in a very questionable real estate deal with Rezko and both claim ignorance when it came to reviewing and "understanding" the actual details (which were very fishy).
I agree with your sentiments about both the Ayers and the Wright relationships. Both go to the issue of character, as both Ayers and Wright have expressed fiercly anti-American views and, in Ayer's case, have acted on them. Ayer's famously said following the 9/11 attacks that he wished he exploded more bombs during his terrorist days in the 1960s and 1970s. And, yes, he is a terrorist. He has been whitewashed as of late as an "activist", but his involvement with the Weather Underground is well documented, as well as his activities with them, including the murder of a policeman.
It's funny how Obama is being sold as an "agent of change" and "post-partisan" politician, when a simple reading of his voting record completely belies both. But, people are ready for a change after eight years of the feckless Bush Administration and the Dems very adroitly packaged Obama for the job.
As the old adage goes: "Be careful what you wish for: You just might get it."
Butleroftwo,
When you say... "got caught by the enemy" it sure implies that you think that POWs are somehow inferior soldiers because they got caught?
I think your little liberal brain needs to find another country to live in until you can show POWs some well deserved respect.
larry, good post. Obama isn't the messiah, and problems we're facing are HUGE. But Obama's a step in the right direction -- away from the ideological right-wing and back towards a pragmatic center.
McCain, meantime, is borderline dementia, possible due to brain tumor. (I'm not joking. Check out his left eye next time.) His campaign has been all-slime and no-substance.
Palin? She's just a freak. She should go back to being Governer of that socialist oil-state up north.
urban, I might border on 'blunt' from time to time, but the arguments I've made on this board are substantive and direct. The GOP ran the bus into the ditch. Nobody to blame but themselves.
And just so you know I'm not on any sort of medication, Bush Apologists and GOP partisans are brainwashed SHEEP-fuckers.
In fairness, I'll think of something to say about democrats when they run the bus into a ditch of their own 10 years from now. That's just how American politics works.