I watched Louise early in the year on CNBC and she made a convincing case for a major worldwide market downturn from a technical perspective and was dead on. In all honesty I hope she is wrong here. Basically she is saying next support levels are S&P 600 if that doesn't hold we could see 400. Everything....EVERYTHING....is falling right now.
Submitted by peterb on November 22, 2008 - 6:32pm.
Where's Schiff's fund at right now? I heard it's down 50%. And he got "decoupling" completely wrong. He was right about the market top, but he was not the only one saying it. Just the only one on BubbleVision. For that he deserves credit, but that's about it.
Submitted by Eugene on November 22, 2008 - 8:10pm.
LA_Renter wrote:
I watched Louise early in the year on CNBC and she made a convincing case for a major worldwide market downturn from a technical perspective and was dead on. In all honesty I hope she is wrong here. Basically she is saying next support levels are S&P 600 if that doesn't hold we could see 400. Everything....EVERYTHING....is falling right now.
S&P 600 and especially 400 is unlikely. Most blue chips are already trading at single-digit P/E.
Submitted by SD Realtor on November 22, 2008 - 9:44pm.
I cannot comment on where I think the S&P will go to. However making the support level calls of 400 and 600 doesn't take to much rocket science. When the S&P pushed through 2002 support levels that was very significant from a technical point of view. Through the past 3 weeks we had touched it but bounced off it. On Thursday however we busted through it and Friday it was not until the miracle last 90 minutes that we recovered. Note however this "recovery" only brought us UP to that level. The 600 support level was a minor retracement from July of 1996. Not sure if I would even call it a support level but I don't know much about technical analysis. The stronger support in the low 400's, actually 375 is found back in 1991.
Just to put things in perspective in a matter of months we have seen the S&P fall to levels not seen since 1997.
However after more then 3 years we have seen a much more modest depreciation in housing. Those who think we will see a quick move down in housing, or that the bottom will be within a year or so are sadly mistaken.
Now do I think the S&P will find 600? Do not know at all. I think there sure the heck is alot of money on the sidelines right now though.
Gold is setting up a major short sale right now, if it can just rally a bit more and have the commercials go to the short side, it will be about as good a sell signal as there can be. Gold has never been a hedge against market declines and never will be. Just study what it has done historically during stock market declines. It is in a downtrend so selling rallies is the correct trade. I could care less about his opinion, as a trader his track record is not good even though he has been right occasionally. Remember he was about 4 years early on housing.
SP 500 600 I do think will happen before this decline is over, but do not know the timing of that. I am hoping for a sharp rally to short. The PPT last hour move on Friday means nothing big picture.
Submitted by peterb on November 22, 2008 - 10:58pm.
Agree with Chris on this one. Every rally we'll see for the next year, is a short set-up opportunity. Gold has done well to hold it's level of decline from $1045 this year. So in relative terms it is doing very well. But to see it actually make a new high and hold it in US$, would be counter to vitually every historical recession/depression event on record.
Submitted by wannabe2077 on November 25, 2008 - 9:52am.
Gold prices are a function of supply and demand. If people lose all their money in stock market and lose their jobs buying gold is the last thing on their mind.
Gold will rise only if the government floods the market with $$$. The Feds are stingy with cash - they did back out the initial program to buy troubled assets. Of course they reversed course with Citicorp.
It is not like the banks are freely lending money.
Submitted by wannabe2077 on November 25, 2008 - 9:52am.
Gold prices are a function of supply and demand. If people lose all their money in stock market and lose their jobs buying gold is the last thing on their mind.
Gold will rise only if the government floods the market with $$$. The Feds are stingy with cash - they did back out the initial program to buy troubled assets. Of course they reversed course with Citicorp.
It is not like the banks are freely lending money.
Here is Louise Yamada from that same episode.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/27829390
I watched Louise early in the year on CNBC and she made a convincing case for a major worldwide market downturn from a technical perspective and was dead on. In all honesty I hope she is wrong here. Basically she is saying next support levels are S&P 600 if that doesn't hold we could see 400. Everything....EVERYTHING....is falling right now.
Where's Schiff's fund at right now? I heard it's down 50%. And he got "decoupling" completely wrong. He was right about the market top, but he was not the only one saying it. Just the only one on BubbleVision. For that he deserves credit, but that's about it.
I watched Louise early in the year on CNBC and she made a convincing case for a major worldwide market downturn from a technical perspective and was dead on. In all honesty I hope she is wrong here. Basically she is saying next support levels are S&P 600 if that doesn't hold we could see 400. Everything....EVERYTHING....is falling right now.
S&P 600 and especially 400 is unlikely. Most blue chips are already trading at single-digit P/E.
I cannot comment on where I think the S&P will go to. However making the support level calls of 400 and 600 doesn't take to much rocket science. When the S&P pushed through 2002 support levels that was very significant from a technical point of view. Through the past 3 weeks we had touched it but bounced off it. On Thursday however we busted through it and Friday it was not until the miracle last 90 minutes that we recovered. Note however this "recovery" only brought us UP to that level. The 600 support level was a minor retracement from July of 1996. Not sure if I would even call it a support level but I don't know much about technical analysis. The stronger support in the low 400's, actually 375 is found back in 1991.
Just to put things in perspective in a matter of months we have seen the S&P fall to levels not seen since 1997.
However after more then 3 years we have seen a much more modest depreciation in housing. Those who think we will see a quick move down in housing, or that the bottom will be within a year or so are sadly mistaken.
Now do I think the S&P will find 600? Do not know at all. I think there sure the heck is alot of money on the sidelines right now though.
All I can say if Gold hits 2000 is
YEA !!!! WHOOO !!!!
Get my gold dredge out I am heading NORTH !!!!
Gold is setting up a major short sale right now, if it can just rally a bit more and have the commercials go to the short side, it will be about as good a sell signal as there can be. Gold has never been a hedge against market declines and never will be. Just study what it has done historically during stock market declines. It is in a downtrend so selling rallies is the correct trade. I could care less about his opinion, as a trader his track record is not good even though he has been right occasionally. Remember he was about 4 years early on housing.
SP 500 600 I do think will happen before this decline is over, but do not know the timing of that. I am hoping for a sharp rally to short. The PPT last hour move on Friday means nothing big picture.
Agree with Chris on this one. Every rally we'll see for the next year, is a short set-up opportunity. Gold has done well to hold it's level of decline from $1045 this year. So in relative terms it is doing very well. But to see it actually make a new high and hold it in US$, would be counter to vitually every historical recession/depression event on record.
I would have to agree with Chris as well. Especially the statement about gold.
Gold prices are a function of supply and demand. If people lose all their money in stock market and lose their jobs buying gold is the last thing on their mind.
Gold will rise only if the government floods the market with $$$. The Feds are stingy with cash - they did back out the initial program to buy troubled assets. Of course they reversed course with Citicorp.
It is not like the banks are freely lending money.
Gold prices are a function of supply and demand. If people lose all their money in stock market and lose their jobs buying gold is the last thing on their mind.
Gold will rise only if the government floods the market with $$$. The Feds are stingy with cash - they did back out the initial program to buy troubled assets. Of course they reversed course with Citicorp.
It is not like the banks are freely lending money.