San Diego Housing Bubble News and Analysis

Bella Pacific does have some pain. The condos are the hardest hit in PB. There are a TON of upside-down places in the Plaza and many NODs/foreclosures. Prices have really come down there and some just about pencil out for now, (as long as there are no future declines in rent prices, which there's discussion about that being likely).

Some of the listings are still high in the Plaza, but I suspect b/c they can't reduce b/c that's how much their loan is. In other words, how long can they hold out before they get a NOD/foreclosure. Lots of short sales going on there.

Also, just saw a studio close at Pacific Shores for 152k. That was a 52% drop from peak. Starting to see small drops in townhouses. Armstrong has been resistant in reducing, but recently closed one of the townhomes off Felspar in the 600ks. One of the posters on SDL offered that much last July and they refused to accept the offer. Only took them 9 months to reconsider that price.

The houses are still clinging. I suspect b/c OPP refuses to lower their prices. They've been trying to sell their multi-million dollar places for at least 2 years now, but their peak sales set the benchmark for the high-end.

I also think that the high-end just can't reduce. Those are the Alt-A and Option ARMs. They're trying to get out now while they can before the resets start to hit. Should be real interesting to see what happens.

Mission Valley starting to look opportunistic

6780 Friars Rd Unit 237
San Diego, CA 92108
Source: Public Records
SOLD FOR: $121,000 (02/11/2009)
BEDS: 2
BATHS: 2
SQFT: 957
STYLE: Condo/Coop
YEAR BUILT: 1972

roperty History
Date Event Price Appreciation Source
Feb 11, 2009 Sold $121,000 -24.7%/yr Public Records
Jul 29, 2005 Sold $331,000 16.9%/yr Public Records
Mar 15, 2001 Sold $167,000 19.8%/yr Public Records
Sep 28, 1998 Sold $107,000 >1,000%/yr Public Records
Aug 12, 1998 Sold $62,141 -4.1%/yr Public Records
Mar 13, 1991 Sold $85,000 6.2%/yr Public Records
Jun 15, 1989 Sold $76,500 -- Public Records

delete post

After looking at a map and seeing that this place backs up to the 5 and is close to the railroad track, I'm not sure it's fair to say this place is in PB. I mean, technically speaking it's PB, but I wouldn't say this unit is reflective of the rest of the area.

I haven't checked recently to see what condos in Crown Point are going for, but I'd be curious to find out.

I don't think you'd get cash flow from that property. Investment loans have different terms than owner occupied.

At 182 these would cash flow. My bet is tht the place sells for 250K+. Just a guess.

Anoter Cash Flow postve Property IF it actally sells at this price.

Oliver Ave, San Diego CA

$254,000 Notice of default
2 br 1 ba 806 sqft $315/sqft
Single-Family Home
Pacific Beach

If it's the one I'm thinking of, it was previously owned by a realtor, got the NOD, was scheduled for foreclosure. I think they split the lot?

No Cash Flow Indeed.
-2.7% Cash on Cash with 70%LTV, 6% Money, 30% expense ratio, rents at 1500/month. =(1700)/year in the red. Unleveraged return = CAP Rate = 6.3%. Disregard some of the timing things in here, I have been using this for intitial underwriting of all cash purchase and rehab deals. Cool that excel pastes in OK.

Want cash flowing san diego deals? Contact me. skeet [at] livinghabitat [dot] net (hope that is OK on this site?)

Cost Up Front
Purchase Price and Closing Costs 190,000
Rehab Cost 0
Total Cost 190,000
Rehab Time 0 mos

Operating Income and Expense
Rents
Unit 1 1,500
Unit 2 -
Unit 3 -
Unit 4 -
Unit 5 (bootleg) -
1,500
Vacancy 5%
Gross Operating Income 17,100
Expenses 30% Gross 5,130
NOI 11,970
Year 2 CAP Rate or return w/o financing 6.3%

Financing Month 6
Permanent Financing 70% LTV 6.00% 10yr fixed, 30 yr am
Appraised Value 190,000
Mortgage Expense 13,670
NOI 11,970
Cash Flow Year 2 (1,700)

Leveraged Returns
Financing Cost 3% 5,700
Cash Out 70% LTV 133,000
Cash Still In Deal 62,700
Cash Flow Year 2 (1,700)
Cash on Cash Year 2 -2.7%

I have not seen the property but I was thinking that 2 bedroom HOUSES in PB are renting more in the range of 1650 to 2000.

Make sure the HOA is good shape. People not bailing, no too many renters and the maintenance and reserves are in good shape to handle any unforeseen problems. HOA's can get sour very easily in bad times.

Not a bad deal.

4867 Bella Pacific Row UNIT 146, San Diego, CA (Pacific Beach)
Recently Sold: $240,000 Zestimate: $330,500
2 Beds2.0 Baths1,094 sqft
Built: 1987Lot Size: -- Sold On: 06/25/2009
Save E-mail alerts Similar sales

Searching craigslist for 'Bella Pacific' shows one 2 bedroom/2 bath that has dropped from $1675/month to $1650/month:

http://sandiego.craigslist.org/search/ap...

Good luck trying to rent a 2 bedroom in PB for $2000 in this economy.

Mission Valley is mostly a flood zone. I would not buy a place there.

http://www.voiceofsandiego.org/voice_spe...

That is the low tail of the deviation curve in that complex although with the number of foreclosures over there and buyers getting better prices it make it easier to rent out at a lower price and break even.