San Diego Housing Bubble News and Analysis

ooops, "Bridgewalk" by SPH.

4s Renter

Pasado - As compared to the materials (Tile, Coutertops, carpet etc etc) used in Maybeck, supposedly its a lot worse but Maybeck is beautifully designed.. My wife walked them about a month ago (works with the builder). My wife has pretty hard standards, as she worked in design for quite some time so we are going to walk them when they open.

If that's the case we might be seeing "affordable" starter SFH going up on the ranch. Low 500's? Which means BMR might have also came down on land price.

Truth be told, I would rather have the house built well, and I'll put in the nice floors, the granite, and all the rest of the crap...over time.

However, that Maybeck sounds like it's coming down nicely as well.

laaaf,

I just toured these yesterday, their grand opening. It turns out the materials are the exact same standards of Maybeck.

The fantastic part is that they are comp killers like the Maybecks!

Plan 1 2047SF 535k Directly Across from the Del Sur / San Diego city park!
Plan 2 2165SF 560k Same location
Plan 3 2360SF 575k Same location

Lot sizes are from 3150 to approx 3700SF. So you do get tad bit more land with the Maybecks.

I was at the opening yesterday as well.

I was there at 4:30 after the opening was pretty much over. It was still pretty packed. The first two phases (if you want to call them that) are quite small with respect to the number of homes released per phase. The strategy is clearly to dribble them out quite slowly to keep demand up.

People can say what they want but I believe these will go pretty quick.

Since they are the cheapest SFH in Del Sur, AND at the perfect price point to get a FHA 30 year fixed loan, I too suspect these will sell pretty fast relative to the older projects. Standard Pacific is in deep poo...they are going to have to drop their PPSF by 50 bucks!

this is going to choke off Mandolin, the condos just starting out next door. they are still selling their phase 1. (forget when these got started, anyone know?)

here's their prices:

Plan 1 1643sqft 464k
Plan 2 1821sqft 492k
Plan 3 1878sqft 480k
Plan 4 2206sqft 514k
Plan 5 2302sqft 532k

so these condos with similar sqft are generally 45k less in comparison to Pasado. if you use interest rate of 6%, that's $270 extra each month to get a house instead of a condo. but wait, Mandolin's HOA is a freaking $280/month. how much is Pasado's?

ocr I saw the HOA but now the amount is not coming to me. I don't recall them being cheap. I view Pasado kind of like Madiera which is sold out. You have a point, Madiera went quick while Mandolin has languished. The same should happen when you view what happened with Madiera.

What about Mello-Roos in Bridgewalk and Pasado?

I like the direction where this is going, but 3100-3700 sf lots are crazy. I'd never buy a house like that. But I hope that enough people do to draw away buyers from Rancho Penasquitos.

I'll go check on my pumpkin patch in the backyard now.

Here's the HOA info:

$142 Now
$171 on build out in 3-4 years.

The Mello-roos is all the same in Del Sur. 1.8% (not to exceed 1.9%). Super high. Sure it's tax deductible, but that only whops off 3k off of a 9k tax bill.

mello roos across the board is 1.9% in del sur.

so at $170, that's $110 less than Mandolin. so now you ask your self, should I spend $160 more a month to get a detached home of the same sqft instead of a condo.

very hard decision indeed...

Speaking of Mandolin, Shea is going to have to whop off at least $30 PPSF to stay competitive. I'm sure Shea can absorb that...they are asking 500k for a unit
built for 200k and land they paid 100k for.

The Mandolins have 4 units left on the 2nd phase (which hasn't been built yet). The 3rd phase will start next month, I was told.

they still have 2 units from phase one. considering that each phase is only 6 homes, they're not doing very well.

Does anyone know how Avaron at Del Sur is doing? I was out there in April and they were selling their last two phases and the models? Are the two on the MLS the only ones left?

Padre,

The materials are not the same as maybeck used in the design scheme, therefore it looks "Cheaper". Materials as in options available. Maybeck is outfitted quite extensively and although most people wont "pimp" their homes like the models look, supposedly the offerings to "pimp" your home out arent available.

The cool thing I found out about WL is that you can ask for no flooring to go in if you want to do it yourself. So if you have connections on flooring or are a handyman type and want to make a trip to Lumber Liquidators, could save a bundle and customize your flooring yourself. You could probably also add the crown molding and other such options on your own to make the house less cookie cutter.

Ah, good point. I like the idea of doing the floors myself. I have done it before. Most builders force you to put down the default. ..cheap cheap carpet...then you have to rip it all out.

I asked a lot of questions over at Maybeck since I have a lot of customization requirements (Dad in a wheelchair so need 1st floor graded shower and entry). So I found out about the flooring option. Upstairs could be different with carpeting but they do have wood floors one of the models on the stairs and upstairs so who knows.

I may head over and check out Pasado today to see for myself. My wife just said they feel small, very cookie cutter-ish as compared to the bigger models in 4s. So I will report back hopefully this afternoon.

Cheers

heh, have fun. But, yeah they are smaller, more for an entry level family. The Maybecks are definitely a step up the housing ladder.

Stopped by and took a look.

Nice houses but I'm completely at a loss understanding why they use such tiny lots. Sales office parking lot looks like it's in the middle of nowhere. Nothing but empty land for miles in every direction. Why do they have to stack these house almost on top of each other if there's so much free land available? No need to mention that there's no room for my pumpkins, no grass for kids to play on, and no privacy.

All houses are 4 br max and there's no option to add a loft/office if you go with 4 bedrooms. (Is it so hard to find room for an office in a 2300 sf house?) For me, it means a computer in the bedroom (again). No, thank you, not for 550k.

Property tax is 1.9%, plus HOA, plus something called "sub association fee" that's not to exceed 0.125% of purchase price. By my calculations, mello-roos effectively add 80k to the purchase price.

Their only appeal is that they're new. Mid-600's buy you a much nicer house in Park Village (equally good schools, similar footage, much bigger lot). In 20 years Park Village will still be valued and Del Sur will become high-density housing for low income Mexicans.

Of all new houses I've seen in San Diego this summer, Quintessa plan 1 remains my favorite. Overpriced but very nice.

Del Sur

just in case ppl are afraid del sur might be running out of land...

yellow area is the high end portion, including avaron

the red area is finishing up after 2 years of building

they are just getting started with the green portion

then there's the orange area which will also include shops and some commercials that they haven't even touched on yet

they are cramping in as much house into the land so they can maximize profit. simple as that.

Went by this afternoon and I basically agree with the poster that also went by today (I was the guy in the flops and orange shorts - not sure if we were there at the same time). The materials are cheap (cheap countertops and backsplash, flooring looked cheap and the houses looked small.

Went by Sentinel by John Laing - those are some nice houses with nice big lots (7K i think) but high priced.

ocrenter wrote:

Del Sur

just in case ppl are afraid del sur might be running out of land...

yellow area is the high end portion, including avaron

the red area is finishing up after 2 years of building

they are just getting started with the green portion

then there's the orange area which will also include shops and some commercials that they haven't even touched on yet

they are cramping in as much house into the land so they can maximize profit. simple as that.

Question on the red area - there is an area that has gone undeveloped in over a year and some months. There have been lightposts there since Jan 07 but no building. The area hugs camino on the north east end near 4s..

laafterhours, yeah, you're right, that's why I said they are "finishing up" and not "they are done." there's still some vacant land in the red area they haven't gotten to. I'm not sure if they at least have been spoken for (as in deposit placed by buyers).

Does anyone have any idea who the builder is over there in the red with the lampost empty lots?

The half of the red that is empty and not sold to builders is just more of the same models that are in the bottom portion. So Standard Pacific, Shae, and Lang, and Donaldson. When that land was developed Black Mountain Ranch thought by now all the lots would have been sold. lol. The good news it looks as if BMR reduced the lot prices to builders. But, yeah it will still be another 4-5 years before even the existing land is filled. Then another 10 on top of that to fill the rest.

Can you elaborate - I think you said that the lamppost empty lots that are in the red have not been sold to the builders that built houses in the red already but will be later? So am I to assume that someone will build another release of the homes that were built in the red? 4-5 years before existing land is filled - are you speaking of the entire Del Sur community or lots for builders that have models and plots avail? another 10 years for the entire Del Sur community?

Thanks

BMR is almost as good as Irvine Ranch when it comes to making money. Lots are sold in small chunks to developers. Developers like it because they don't have to carry a large loan for 100 lots. They only have to carry one for 15 at a time. BMR likes the strategy because they NEVER have to worry that a builder that just bought 200 lots just went bankrupt and the land will be sold to the next developer NOT by BMR but by the bankruptcy judge and the bank for pennies on the dollar. Thus the new developer reduces the lot price by 1/2..which reduces all of BMR lots! What BMR/Irvine want is total control of the lot price. That's how they make money.

Even though BMR developed (graded, road, utilities) doesn't mean the lots are sold yet...only plotted for a certain sized house and whether it's alley loaded or not.

So yes, ANY builder can buy the remainder of the red lots.

As for why Pasado was placed by the city park all by it's lonesome is most likely that's where BMR had the free land that wasn't reserved AND had the best price. Lots over looking the park is a big bonus...Even though residents will have to walk farther to get to the community pools.

Thanks for the explanation.

On your comment about the Pools, according to the Sentinal SalesRep, there is a pool going in somewhere off to the right of the Sentinal models. I wish there was a land spec map (whatever they are called) on the web of Del Sur (Kind of like one on 4sranch.com).

Thanks for the PDF - I had no idea that another golf course was in the plans and its public. Also looks like a middle school is supposed to go in next to the high school but one already exists for the 4s kids so I guess this will be for the Del Sur homes..