San Diego Housing Bubble News and Analysis

Temecula Parkway traffic can be heavy at times, but never awful.

Quality of Life: Subjective of course, but keep in mind there are a lot of rednecks and more and more flatbillers in an around Temecula. Quality of life is pretty good though overall.

Anyone know what the current plans are for the sand pit that was proposed for the Rainbow area, just south of Temecula off interstate 5 ? If that thing every gets built, the afternoon breezes headed into Temecula could get a bit dusty.

Check here:

www.nogravelquarry.com

I'll answer your qestions but let's not make this another "I hate temecula" thread and stay with the specific tracts vs others. I'm only saying this because that seems to be the inevitable direction of these things.

1-not bad, at 7 am, you have to wait through a couple light cycles to get onto 15 south, they are going to make one of those clover leafs so it will be easier. It used to suck, but they went from 2 lanes to six in the least few years, so it's ok now.

2-The overall quality of life in the temecula parkway corridor is as good as it gets in the valley (this includes both north and south of the parkway), as far as vail ranch goes, it's one of my least favorite developments. It's quality of life is good, it's schools are good, actually among the best, strike that, they are the best in this county, they share schools with redhawk, morgan, wolf and the other adjacent developments, but to be honest, vail is the weak link.

3-vail has three things working against it vs. the other choices: AGE (most of it is at least ten years old), SIZE (most of the houses are small, there a few exceptions but a 1200-1900 sq ft 3/2 or 4/2 with a 2 car garage is the average house. And NO HOA (it is one of the few large developments in the area that lacks an HOA.

If it only had one or two of the three, it might be fine, but the trifecta is a recepie for disaster. It also has a higher percentage of rentals than the other developments because most are starter homes, most were built during the last downturn and most were built when margins were very thin so they built them as cheaply as they could. The lack of uniform fencing bugs me, i guess I'm picky, but everyones fense seems to be a different color, material and stae of disrepair. This may sound trivial, but it casts of a yucky curbside feeling and i know I'd be the guy with the vinyl fence next to the guy with the dilapidated, burned out untereated balsa wood thing, propped up by milkcrates and random patches.

It's equal in size would be paloma del sol, which I think is a better choice because the hoa has kept it looking better and it has ammenities (like pools and more landscaping). Paloma is just as old and the house size is similar (there are exceptions in both), but head to head, paloma is just nicer.

vail doesn't compare really to redhwak, it's very different. Redhawk is just as old if not older in some cases but the homes are in most cases about twice as large, it has an hoa and most houses have nicer hardscape, landscaping is kept up and improved more. keep in mind these are broad strokes I'm painting, each place has about 5000 people, more than a dozen tracts each, so there are some pockets of nice big homes in vail and some small ones in redhwak. There is a fill in tract in redhawk called bridlevail (off via cordoba) that isn't in the redhawk hoa and the homes are small, but it is accessed via redhawk and almost every listing for one says "redhawk beauty." I don't know if realtors realize it or hope the buyer won't. It's still decent, it has it's own hoa and a pool but it's a little different, a little more vail ranchish.

The trouble with vail is that since most the homes are smaller, people tend to use their garage as living or storage space and it seems like every car is on the street (and the number of monster trucks seems to be higher, and as paramount alluded to, it's more rednecky).

It's not bad, but it's no redhawk. Of the four main developments south of temecula parkway, morgan and redhwak attract a higher demographic, wolf is an enigma, it's proximity to the casino and flatland location bothered me, but I like the actual houses and vail has a good location but has those three strikes I mentioned and would be my last pick. I had a girlfriend that lived in vail at one point and one that lived in paloma at a different point, so I am vaugely familiar with both and they were about the same sized (the house, not the girlfriend), I'd pick the paloma house, both the women were crazy so there's no pick there, actually the vail one was.......that's another story, but the paloma girl had a better neighborhood and a better built house.

You can label me a snob, but I considered the other three and a few places on the north side of the parkway, each has it's plusses and minuses but I never considered vail for the reasons stated above, I've owned two and rented two places south of the parkway on the 11 years as a southie, none of which were in vail but most were within a mile or so. It is cheaper, but there are cheap places that are better in my never humble opinion.

This is what I just don't get, and it does appear to be true: "Ten years old" is a strike against Vail Ranch?

A house is old after only 10 years? It's part of the absurdity that is California.

Also, I have a 1500 sq ft house, and it still costs me a lot of money to keep our house going...I can't see why a 1900 sq ft house would be a detriment. But in California it seems to be the case.

I just have such a disconnect from California reality because I partially grew up in a conservative democratic area. Most people had modest homes, drove modest cars, etc...maybe it's just the NWO.

Recently my utilities were as follows (per month):

$95 for SCE (electric)
$65 for water
$95 for cable
$45 for gas
$100 for HOA

+ maintenance, etc...

After a while the bills will wear you down.

I know it was wordy and maybe I didn't explain it properly, but the age alone is not a strike, nor is the size, nor is the lack of the hoa. It's the combination of the three that creates the the problem. It's like the fire triangle (heat, fuel, oxygen), on their own they are harmless, remove any of the three and you won't have a fire, combine them and it's dangerous.

I have no way of disputing your opinion of the new world order or of Southern Californians, because my frame of reference is too finite, I was born here, as were my parents. I have lived in three counties but they were all in so cal, I am what I am and it is what it is, hopefully the Op who had a question will take my reply for what it is, just my opinion, even if it is superficial and shallow. In reality, real estate is about the buyer and the market, and many of the buyers are like me, right or wrong, democratic or republican, fruits or nuts, most buyers of southern california real estate are southern californians and it is important to understand them even if you aren't one of them.

paramount, I agree with you more often than not, and bills do wear people down (i would love to trade, I've always maintained that you have an eviable financial situation and are way too hard on yourself because youy live well within your means, btw), but the question posed was about the comparison of two master planned developments and I did my best to compare and contrast them. I refuse to take responsibility for expressing my opinions and preferences, I give them freely and everyone is entitled to a full refund if they dont like them, I should be taken with a grain of salt if not a full shaker.

If anyone lives in vail and takes offense, my apologies, it's still a damn nice place, but when asked to compare it, I cant help myself.

I agree with TG that Vail Ranch is a least desirable place to live if you're south of Temecula Parkway.

I'd be fine over there of course since I enjoy snobbing among beer drinkin, foul smelling tow truck drivers :)

(Actually, I'd be fine renting a small room anywhere as I once did during my college days.)

However, my wife is very discerning and she would never live in Vail Ranch for exactly the reasons TG cited. We drove around there recently looking at houses and, yes, the variety of fences took on the semblage of a patch quilt. Add to that the inconsistent front lawns, fading paint, etc and Vail Ranch would be our last choice.

Coming from OC, Redhawk was our first choice. We kind of like the Stepford quality of life in Redhawk - where the boobs are bigger and the lawns are greener:)

I agree with TG's point #2. 79S (Temecula pkwy) is probably the best suburban area in the valley.

Traffic is not too bad, and much better than anything of 79N (Winchester), which can be horrendous at peak times.

I'm in Crowne Hill, which means I often travel the entire length of the developed part of 79S. It always flows well, even at rush hours.

Like TG said, schools are very good (our kid's school has some of the highest scores in the state).

It's nice to be on a hill in the summer, as we get breezes that cool down the house in the evenings.

The quarry is not dead yet, but momentum is building against it. The city council's stated position is that they will prevent it, and they would lose a lot of credibility if they didn't stop it now.

Thanks for all of your helpful info, guys. I suspected some of the things mentioned above but wasn't completely sure. I'd take Vail Ranch over French Valley or Murrieta any day though.

So, in summary Vail Ranch is the Ghetto of Redhawk.

I was driving by Vail Ranch last time, and there were an average about 2 trucks/3 household. Some on them also have more than 6" lift, that's just not a sign of good neighborhood :P
In a serious note, lets not be snob about an area. Call it a ghetto just not right. I don't live in Vail, and not even the supporter for Temecula area. My wife loves it here, I am only neutral about the place. Lets be reasonable, it might be the less desireable area compare to Redhawk but its still okay in my book.

Hi TG, I have one specific question I probably need your help. Do you mind send me an email to tigerpaybill [at] yahoo [dot] com so I can have the email address to ask you? Thanks.
Kibu

kibu, my e-mail is temeculaguy [at] hotmail [dot] com and for anyone else with a specific question they want to ask off the boards, feel free.

snail, you are right, it is o.k. in my book as well, just comparing the different places and pointing out some characteristics. The OP started a different thread about the houses accross from wolf creek and when I thought about those compared to vail, I realized vail does have a few things going for it that will keep it afloat, it has a good location, some nice elevation and is surrounded by some of the best tracts, not close to the casino and nowhere near any apartments, so it will probably never be too bad.

TG: A bit OT, but as far as your So Cal NWO I would say it will bust eventually, but I'm sure I'd be wrong.

I moved to Pt. Loma in 1980 but I also had the great fortune a partially growing up in the south, which has always helped to keep my two feet on the ground with the virtues of "Southern Sensibility."

Long Live the South!

BTW, I will and have always maintained that the most prime real estate lies north of Temecula Parkway and South of Rancho California - in other words Central Temecula.

South of Temecula Parkway and you deal with casino traffic and also Redhawk Parkway which many people speed around at speeds approaching 65MPH or more.

The best primary schools are also in Central Temecula - Abbey Rinker, Crowne Hill and Paloma Elementary.

And speaking of Elementary schools in Temecula I heard a rumor that Sparkman Elementary, off of Margarita and Temecula Parkway behind Albertson, will not be opening in the Fall. That should help to increase the value of the homes surrounding Abbey Rinker, Crowne, Paloma and Tony Tobin.

Too bad for the people who live near Sparkman Elementary. I expect their house values to decline somewhat.

paramount, It's just a different definition, I consider Rancho Cal as the dividing line or everything in 92592 it as being "south." I guess I never broke out a "central" region, that's why I refer to it as the temecula parway corridor, two miles either way from the parkway. I agree that wolf and rainbow deal with some added casino traffic but not so much as you move further out, it never bothered me when i lived in redhawk, however it kept me from ever looking seriously at wolf because it would require using pechanga parkway a lot. When I lived in redhawk i just didn't go that way very much and never on a friday night.

As far a the schools, here are the scores

http://api.cde.ca.gov/AcntRpt2008/2008Gr...

You are right, the schools you cited did very well, but the elems all do pretty well. All but one of the twenty elems are over 850, this year's leader is actually in the far north, towards french valley, go figure. Those four schools you cited got between 900 and 910 (which is fantastic) but in the same area is sparkman 855 and vail 864 (I know it makes no sense but the elem on pauba road is called vail, while the elem in vail ranch is called pauba valley, I have no answer for this, they failed to consult me in advance, despite my self appointed title as the V.P. of common sense), morgan's elem dropped from a 900 to 896, the vail ranch/redhwak elems got 875, 882 and 897.I'm not so sure if we aren't splitting hairs here, but I don't have kids in elem right now so I can't say either way.

What is significant and confusing is the 40 point difference between high schools and the highest scoring elems are in the boundary for the lowest scoring high school, which defies logic (great oak's 812 to tem valley's 772, once again I'm not sure if that makes one all that much better than the other, is 39 pts on a 1000 scale a big deal?, probably not). I do know that most of the schools allow intra district transfers, there are usually 5 elems within 3 miles of anyone's house, the high schools are only a couple miles apart so there may be some picking and choosing going on. Purely anecdotal, but my kids play various school sports and often i am asked to drive their friends home from practice or take them to or from a team party and very often the kids dont live within the h.s. boundary, I don't ask questions as to why, so once again, I got nothing.

The rumor is true, they were going to close more, they just have too many schools, they make the delopers pay to build them but as the kids get older in a neighborhood, they aren't as full, so they took a few 75% full schools and consolodated them to cut down on secretaires, principals, janitors, etc. as a way of closing the budget gap. I don't know if it will hurt the houses nearby that much because there are other schools in walking distance and that one wasn't in the middle of a neighborhood like the others are, it was at the edge of the residential area, next to commercial stuff and a busy road. Plus the hospital is supposed to be built accross the street, they may do well just selling the land in the future if they don't ever need it.

It's a difficult task to plan schools, when a development springs up, everyone has little kids. over time, less and less are little, people don't always move away just because their kids grew up. I go jogging on a 5 mile round trip and I go by 4 elementary schools, that's just silly. The trap for someone living nearby, is what will it become down the road when it's not opened back up? Certain uses can have a negative effect on prices, but these are some of the biggest nimbys in the world so I dont ever worry that much, some of these local folks passionately fight hospital and church construction, so someone wanting to open a drug treatment center or something is in for a big suprise. I've given up my dream that we get a strip club someday.

Interestingly, if you recall about 4 years ago there was a drug treatment center just to the south of Sparkman. It has since been torn down.

I do remember it, I was actually thinking about it when I was trying to figure out what they would do with the school and writing that post, and that place was just an outpatient place. Now that I think of it, that would have made a terrible location for a strip club, but how about in the industrial park, seriously it's like 50 miles to the nearest one, you'd think elsinore would have one by now, I'm all for keeping the residential areas residential but sometimes when you get the posse together for a night out, it's nice to have that option, I'm just saying. I know the wine country would never get one but I already have thought up a bunch of cool names. "grapes and garters," "Grape string divas," "poles and vines" I can go on and on, I've had crazier ideas, this could work.