San Diego Housing Bubble News and Analysis

now why isn't that happening here in South Orange County??? Prices here are still sky high and I don't see them coming down except for the very low end of the market.

Every local market is like a Mexican standoff between the banks right now.

Looks like someone pulled the trigger in Temecula.

It will start inland and work its way out. Have a beer and come check back a year or so from now and see where the market is.

Given the amount of $$$ the banks have written off, they may have a lot of room to price down in order to move inventory.

If it's close to 1999 priced isn't it also close to 1992 prices? That's be a helluva deal, picking it up for 92 prices. Lets show some bulls and realtards a ZERO appreciation home in 15+ years.

... and they won't show you the inside but how bad can it be?

Well, they could have stripped all the copper plumbing out of the walls, removed every light fixture and stripped wiring to sell for scrap, they could have poured concrete mix into the plumbing and covered every remaining surface with human feces. That's all I can think of off the top of my head based on other examples of foreclosures I've seen documented.

Well, they could have stripped all the copper plumbing out of the walls, removed every light fixture and stripped wiring to sell for scrap, they could have poured concrete mix into the plumbing and covered every remaining surface with human feces.

LOL.  I don't see why they wouldn't put that in the description.  They can call it a "modern art masterpiece".  Gives the house that "cozy, lived-in" feeling.

LOL. I don't see why they wouldn't put that in the description. They can call it a "modern art masterpiece". Gives the house that "cozy, lived-in" feeling.

:)

good idea, maybe they should even put a green spin on things ... "say goodbye to utility bills, low carbon footprint, organic wall coatings"

"covered every remaining surface with human feces."

I guess that's the proverbial and literal -

sh*t hitting the fan - and splattering the walls.

Are they urine-soaking the floors as well, rather than making payments on a place going under and p*ssing in the wind.

If it's close to 1999 priced isn't it also close to 1992 prices?

Jeepers, didn't think of that. If it overshoots then we may well see '89 pricing in some areas!

Detroit and Cleveland have already proven that homes in America can drop to essentially zero value; I wonder if the IE is next?

Guess they are doing all kinds of crazy sh*t:

http://themessthatgreenspanmade.blogspot...

Even if it is thrashed inside, it has already affected the others, here's a model match a block away that was just lowered to 329k and it is not thrashed.

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printa...

One trigger got pulled, now here go the rest.

Don't forget that the house could have been used for nefarious things like a Meth-producing operation...then it is virtually worthless...be vigilant!

MANmom

Maybe I am reading this wrong, but at 310K that would be about 120 per sqf, Heck you can find a new place with nice upgrades and a deck off the master for less than that in Temecula valley these days, maybe not a golf course view but I think that is overrated anyway, I prefer a nature view (no one behind) myself.

Hey TG,

That's a good one but last weekend we drove by this one in Harveston, and it doesn't seem to even need much work...

http://www.immobel.com/personal/1/listin...

We have an excellent realtor up there and she mentioned that there are the next round of REO's to hit the market in March! Like I said, it's getting interesting around there....

If it's close to 1999 priced isn't it also close to 1992 prices?

I remember looking at homes in Temecula in 90 or 91 and those 2500-3000 sq/ft houses were going for the high 200s to the low 300s. granted that was the peak of the last bubble but it would still be funny to show no change in value in 15+ years

Yep seems like a 2002 price to me, which looks a lot like a 1990 price.

There has been a little wage inflation since then I would think (I know mine has about tripled from 1990 and I owned a home back then).

One might start thinking we are coming up on the buying op of a life time, But that's just me maybe..

Nor- you are right $120 a sq isn't crazy but this is one of the pricier areas of the valley and six months ago I was getting frustrated that it wouldn't come down in price. Since I already waited for the prices to get to me rather than drive to the prices, no reason to reverse course now.

Cash, I dig that harveston house, excellent price for 2400+ and nobody behind you it appears, that is another of the price sticky areas that is falling finally. Interesting is a good word.

golf, not sure where you looked but in 1991 Redhawk was all just under 200k until about 1998 and then it started to rise montly, by 1999 things were in the 200's for the nicest ones and of course location and lot changes things slightly, after that it kept going up until last year and in the last six months has gone into a free fall. I never saw a 3 in the first number of the price of a tract home in this valley from 1990 until about 1999 or 2000. Semi-custom, custom or land would be the exception.

Here is what 230k bought you in 1998 in redhawk's rancho serrano (the most expensive at the time) http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printa...

Feb of 1999 in Augusta at redhwak 236k got you this http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printa...

May of 99 redhawk's gated rancho madera 265k got you 3600 6br http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printa...

look near the bottom of each link to see the historical prices. I'm starting to think that Bearvine's prediction of $75 a sq has some legs. So how do we tell if we are in the flat part or the overcorrection part, these knives are looking good enough to catch, with the only exception being that each week I find one that makes the previous week's pick look overpriced.

Somebody make the itallic thing stop, I forget how

I tried to stop the italics.

I tried and failed. :(

Sold in 2006 for 715,000 now 331,000, you do the math (hint its over 50% off)
http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printa...

Model match same tract 649,000
http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printa...

Sold in 2006 for 999,999 now 484,900
http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printa...

Things are getting interesting

Italics off.

After golf and Pechanga, tomorrow I will go check out a couple of those properties asking low 3's with my in the area realtor buds, and will offer $50g less than the asking and see what will happen.

Even with a counter, and even though $ per sq ft is higher than we would like, the Redhawk property TG mentioned and the Murrieta property pizzaman mentioned will rent with positive cash flow, and are in decent enough neighborhoods.

Once the banks start taking the low ball offers, it's on and $75 sq ft in Morgan Hill will be around the corner in 2010.

The trickle down effect in Temecula will become Niagra Falls.

I know the area, and the local economy cannot support the flood of homes that are on and will hit the market. The outside buyers the area relied on, do not need to buy there. If you work in SD, why buy Temecula, pay a bit more and live in 4S. If you work in OC, you can buy Chino Hills now at a deal, and soon in HB, FV, and the other old areas.

If you live out of area, there is no need to move there for affordable housing.

If you are a Marine, Oceanside will soon be affordable again.

FYI, 40 homes in the OC went to auction at the courthouse last week and only 2 sold.

IE will drop faster, but the rest of SoCal will follow.

Ok, somebody sing with me, "Happy days are here again..." :).

Bear, do you think the rental market will hold. I have to admit it's as tight as it has ever been right now. There is very little for rent so. of 79, 1500 gets you a condo in Auberry and 2000 will get you one of those houses I linked. With a purchase price of 250k and rent of 2k, it's a 125x ratio, the townhouses can be had for 200k, similar ratio. The gamble is will the rentals stay rented. I had to pay double rent for two weeks just to make sure I got a place where I wanted it because of the limited supply yet every tenth house is vacant. The people moving out almost had to be pushed because their new place wasn't vacant yet. Are the current rents and vacancy factor artificial because so many people were being foreclosed on and are essentially tying up two houses (one they rent, the other in the slow foreclosure process)? When this squeezes through will the rental market get tough for landlords? And do you think some of the forclosees are just hanging around in their rental until their kids finish the school year? It just seemed to me as I was rental shopping that if I didn't have the roots I have here, I would rent somehwere else, I would think the average commuter would move on since rents are similar in S.D. and O.C. Then again, you are the mogul, I'm a hobbyist.

Your comment about the banks taking lowballs, I think that cherry is about to pop. look at these listings that are bank owned all listed for more than four months and notice near the bottom of the page the listing price drops, seems they drop 10-20k a month like clockwork, they have got to be getting tired of that. Some have reduced their price 30%, just wait sixty days and they will take the 50k off themselves. Now that football season is over I have something to replace it with, it's like checking standings every week to see who is in the lead.

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printa...

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printa...

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printa...

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printa...

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printa...

actually don't buy that last one, save it for me, it's dropped 6 times in the last eight months for a total of 164k in drops, thats over 20k a month, in six months it will be 270k, it's a little old school inside but check out the sattelite photo, that's the golf course parking lot and I can walk home drunk from the golf course bar. I like that Euro feel of being able to hoof it to the pub.

Rental Observations-

The thought pattern is that the rental market will stay strong, and get stronger in better markets. This applies only for residences that fall into the general area of affordability for the masses. For example, in the heart of Irvine, an IAC 2br 2ba townhome will cost one close to $2500 mo. Small from a sq ft perception, yet great amenities, landlord security, and an easy lifestyle. And the townhomes rent fast. On the other hand I am in a 4000 sq ft rental at $5k month for a $2m home on the hill. These don't rent easy because it doesn't make sense to pay so much. BTW, a neighboring home near me in foreclosure, that didnt sell at the aforementioned auction, the owners are squatting and refuse to leave.

So how does this apply to Temecula? Good points about the tight market now, yet the double home occupancy effect. Right on about commuters simply moving out of the area.

I think the rental market in Temecula will take a hit. Where it will stay strong, is a newer, 2000 sq ft home will rent fast at $1700, and the closer to 3000 sq ft around $1900. One could get more, but that's the fast rental zone.

There will be job growth however, but not be higher scale, which is good for the rental market.

Right now, if you buy right, there should not be a negative, and if there is, the overage would cost one less than $5k a year. Now if I'm being to bearish on rents, and the market is stronger, than you are making money. Best to prepare for the worst case.

So why buy? Just as Temecula is dropping like a rock, at the next cycle it will take off like a rocket. The area is nice, will improve, and more people will need to live there.
If you can make some money annually or at least break even, come 2014-15 you'll see the big jump right then and there.

That being said, right now is still not a great time to buy, especially from the rental standpoint. Why now when drops will be bigger?

The key IMO, is cherry picking, buying in the right neighborhood, finding the every now and then steal, etc. Of course the right price matters, but neighborhood is key. The only older tract homes I would consider are in Redhawk. The golf course, feel, location are all key.

I know I've bashed Wolf to death, and there is more about the area that I can't share. If you have a family absolutely avoid it. Different story if you don't. Great buys as rentals when they get into the low 2's, proximity to Pechanga and Pala make it a great area to rent out.

Why buy now? If you find your dream home, meets all your needs, rent would cost you more, in a better area of Temecula, less than $300k, pay around $100 sq, why not.

Why would one start buying now to use as rentals? We believe we will be able to command a rental premium by giving the tenant piece of mind that we have the financial stability and won't foreclose, as there is that issue right now for renters. Additionally, even if we are higher now, dollar cost averaging as the market continues to plummet will protect us. And once we establish with banks in the area that we are buying properties, we can negotiate sweetheart deals directly before they bring it to market. So we have to start somewhere, and it is beginning to look more interesting.

Last note, in regards to the fixers, remember contractors in the area are dying and the updating wont be as expensive.

Thanks TG

You piggies make me sick. Vultures is more like it. Just circling and circling from above looking for the weak down below. Looking for financial deaths. Cant wait to feed off of poor homeowners can you?

Cant wait to turn homes over to renters.

And how many of you have links to the speculators, brokers, lenders, realtors, appraisers, underwriters and mortgage backed securities that helped create this mess?

Your greed is ugly.

Yes, shame on all you people who didn't buy assets they couldn't afford like everyone else. How dare you act responsibly!

Your greed disgusts me also. Those poor homeowners losing their house since they couldn't flip their 'investment' properties weren't greedy, they were looking to get ahead.

shame shame shame

OK here's a question. I'd love to participate in the next housing price re-bound....where else can I get an asset where the bank will leverage 80% of the money and it generates a cash-flow that covers my investment from day one?

But I don't want to be a landlord - been there done that, it's a pain in the a**. Every week something goes wrong, every week hassle of fixing this, doing that.

So who can I buy shares in that professionally manages property and where the value of the company increases with the value of the property owned? I want to buy shares in a property management company that is smartly investing as we hit the low point of the cycle, not buy and manage property myself.

Thoughts?

I know the guy who bought the first home that TG listed. He is a great guy who can easily afford the home and has a great job, income, and down payment. The second listing is smoking crack.