If we or Israel attack Iran it would take maybe 5-8 million barrels of oil off the market. It would send the price so high it would essentially seize up global commerce. There would, with out a doubt, be huge diesel shortages, very very long lines at the gas station and are market crash of some magnitude. Given the current condition of the market, quite huge in my estimation.
Out of our three biggest supplier's, Mexico's production is falling at an alarming rate, Canada can't ramp up and Venezuela is slowly declining. This has caused a bottle neck with shipping since we now have to go a much further distance for oil thus needing more tankers to keep up with demand. Also, add the fact that tankers are in short supply and moving slower to be more fuel efficient makers the matter worse. Basically, if demand does not precipitously drop, they will not even get us oil fast enough to keep up with a slightly declining demand. The question is what is the number to knock the middle class on the bus, if they are lucky enough to have one where they live?
Attacking Iran is quite literally insane and the market is reflecting that by just the mention of the possibility.
I don't disagree with your assessment of attacking Iran, it would most likely lead to WWIII. But if a very targeted attack were to happen (as is Israel's MO in the past), the oil production would not stop completely. Iran depends on oil just as much as we do, if not more so. Matter of fact, they are a huge importer of gasoline since their refining capacity isn't much better than ours. Israel would attack their military, not the oil production. And their productions is just over 3 billion barrels/day, and while this is a large amount, it's bump if taken totally off-line would be about $10 per barrel. I'd worry more about the impacts of pissing off China and Russia.
The rumor that Israel is going to attack Iran is gaining ground.
More than a rumor...................
Israeli official says attack on Iran 'unavoidable'
Olmert deputy tells newspaper sanctions not slowing Iran's nuclear work
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24998146/
Also some analyst from Morgan Stanley "predicts" oil will hit $150/barrel by July 4th weekend. Of course, when analysts speak, wall street listens...
baaaa bahh bahhhhhhh.
selfportrait
----- Sour grapes for everyone!
If we or Israel attack Iran it would take maybe 5-8 million barrels of oil off the market. It would send the price so high it would essentially seize up global commerce. There would, with out a doubt, be huge diesel shortages, very very long lines at the gas station and are market crash of some magnitude. Given the current condition of the market, quite huge in my estimation.
Out of our three biggest supplier's, Mexico's production is falling at an alarming rate, Canada can't ramp up and Venezuela is slowly declining. This has caused a bottle neck with shipping since we now have to go a much further distance for oil thus needing more tankers to keep up with demand. Also, add the fact that tankers are in short supply and moving slower to be more fuel efficient makers the matter worse. Basically, if demand does not precipitously drop, they will not even get us oil fast enough to keep up with a slightly declining demand. The question is what is the number to knock the middle class on the bus, if they are lucky enough to have one where they live?
Attacking Iran is quite literally insane and the market is reflecting that by just the mention of the possibility.
I don't disagree with your assessment of attacking Iran, it would most likely lead to WWIII. But if a very targeted attack were to happen (as is Israel's MO in the past), the oil production would not stop completely. Iran depends on oil just as much as we do, if not more so. Matter of fact, they are a huge importer of gasoline since their refining capacity isn't much better than ours. Israel would attack their military, not the oil production. And their productions is just over 3 billion barrels/day, and while this is a large amount, it's bump if taken totally off-line would be about $10 per barrel. I'd worry more about the impacts of pissing off China and Russia.