San Diego Housing Bubble News and Analysis

You may also want to consider that at $42/bbl, most of OPEC's competitors cannot make a profit and thus will cease to operate if this maintains for too long. This may not be the bottom for oil, but I bet it's dang close. Maybe it could drop another 10%? But of course, the next question is, "what's out there to cause it to rise?" Look at oil performance for most recessions. Not too good. But it could be good for a 15% pop over a few months.

All I know is I filled up for $1.69 a gallon @CostCo yesterday and it was *awesome*.

Can some explain to me why cheap gas and housing is bad, again?

It's bad because it pretty much portends a depression. One that may effect you. Inflations a pain, but at least you have a job. Deflation starts off being great because your see the leading edge as things become less expensive, then all of the sudden you get unemployed and then it aint so great. But if you've got cash reserves, it's a party!!

$1.69 @ costco? I paid 1.75 there and was doing cartwheels in the parking lot. I've still got half a tank and I'm heading over to fill up. Its full filling your tank for less than $20 again!!!

I heard on the KPBS this AM that oil will drop to around $25 a barrel by the end of next year. This was based on a merril lynch study.

Heck, anything right now is possible. No one knows where things are going with the global economy. Not even the best economic advisors int he world.

This could be the sunset of the grand old USA too. Rome fell, Egypt fell, and many other giants have falling..

I think it very possible oil could go lower.

However, for any investment there is a value point where you start dollar-cost averaging into a long position, because the price is already so low. It if continues to go lower, you just keep buying more and more.

Don't forgot the long view: Oil will likely be 200/bbl within five years.

Starting today, I am dollar-cost-averaging back into gold. This time I'm trying some leverage: started today with 3%-of-portfolio nibble on "UGL" (PROSHARES TR II PROSHARES ULTRA GOLD)

You see, I'm not sure we'll see $700/ounce again. I think we will but I'm not sure.

You may want to take a close look at some of the better gold mining companies that are producing gold right now. As gold holds and other expenses keep dropping, mining gets very profitable. And gold is now behaving far more like money than just another commodity. It's relative strength has been second only to the US$ and the JPY in the last 2 months. And the gold miners have been beaten into the cellar in this last sell-off. Look at Homestake mining for confirmation from 1929 to 1939.

Don't forget, a mere six months ago all the news was that oil was going to continue going up, gas was going to $5/gallon the the end of last summer, and we'd reached peak oil. I have stopped believing in extremes (except as a response to an extreme: i.e., the housing drop as a response to the absurd bubble).

No doubt!

I remember about 15 years ago filling up for 87 cents a gallon at an independent station in New Jersey. I figured I would never see that price again in my lifetime.

Now, who knows.

I filled up yesterday and got change back for my $20. That felt great. I remember post 9/11 I got fuel in Bakersfield for 0.96 a gallon and I can see it getting that low again the way things are going. However, I'm still glad I have a fuel efficient car because we all know that $5 a gallon is possible

I hope to God we collectively wake up as a country and realize that deflation isn't a bad thing.

The government can always put unemployed people to work or feed them with food stamps.

Can you imagine what would happen if unemployment hit 15% *and* oil was $5 a gallon? Game over man. Mass civil unrest. Riots in the streets.

"I think it very possible oil could go lower.

However, for any investment there is a value point where you start dollar-cost averaging into a long position, because the price is already so low. It if continues to go lower, you just keep buying more and more."
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Yup.

I don't know about $200 barrels in 5 years - maybe - but I feel pretty good about $75 barrels in 3 years. That's an easy 2 bagger from here and a potential 3 bagger if we do in fact keep sliding to $25 barrels. Even more if you juice it with Proshares.

And yes, gold sure does look tempting in the $700 oz range, doesn't it?

Right now is a race between declining demand and declining availability. Declining demand is decidedly winning. On the flip side oil projects are getting shut off left and right because of economic feasibility. This is a problem because we needed these projects to ease the decline of peak oil. Now we are headed for a cliff. Eventually declining availability will pull ahead. This may be a year plus. I don't think Opec will cut enough to make a difference.

OTOH, today Bush threaten Iran again so maybe oil will get a new years surprise from Israel.

I think oil is going lower short term, and when it hits $25 a barrel, I will look to by the ultra oil ETFs.

FYI the middle east producer's cost is about $2 a barrel. And I have read the incremental cost can be as low as 40 cents.

How the heck do you think they built Dubai anyway.

I would be cautious if you think it is a no brainer at $40 think it is going to snap back to $80 for a quick profit.

Now here's where I ASK FOR ADVICE.

I'm fairly weak on knowing which big cap oil players are the better positioned for stock price increases, once oil price starts to recover.

So who on this forum has done good research, and can advise us which are the oil sector companies to invest in for long-term? Tell us why you like the companies you recommend?

Exxon?
Petrobras? (Brazil play)
PTR? (China Play)
BP? (more diversified?)
COP?
MRO?

Others?

I don't mean to beat a dead horse but read up a little on the Steve LeVine's background. oilandglory.com is his blog that he created to promote his last book on the oil businees (He still updates it). Don't know about Petrobras or PTR, but BP, Exxon are not in good long term shape because their bookable reserves are declining. He writes extensively on Eurasia, and oil business/politics. Fun read as well imho.