San Diego Housing Bubble News and Analysis

My neighborhood is not moving, because the sellers are listed too high.

One listing was for sale 6 months, and taken off the market, as the owners accepted they could not get the asking price they needed to make the move to their new home in Temecula.

One unit has been listed since February, and has its 3rd reduction. Another Open House this weekend with no cars....

The only unit that sold was the smallest one, range listed starting at $399K, and it sold in a few weeks. I don't know what the buyers paid for it.

Another unit has been listed 3 months, with many Open Houses done by the owner. I stopped by this weekend and suggested that she lower her price.

However, I see lots of Sold signs in Poway, which prompted my other post asking if Poway is still in high demand for its supposedly better schools. Between December and February 1 saw 1 sold sign, and now I see about 10 or 15. They seem to be everywhere, and some houses sell within one week. I know of 1 house that sold in 3 days, according to the owner.

I just checked and your observations about 92120 are correct. In March/April, there were 59 sales. In May/June, there were only 32 sales of which 19 are still in escrow. About 3 months ago after spending an hour or two analyzing my local market I woke up in the middle of the night and realized something very scary. The question is rapidly changing from "What can I sell my house for?" to "Can I sell my house at anything close to a reasonable price given previous sales?"

Here's my own observation in my area, Mira Mesa, 92126: I generally keep an eye on single family homes that's less than 10 years old. Which means, most of them are around the Compass Point dr. area, on the east end of Mira Mesa by the 15. About a year ago, I know someone who bought a 1480sq-ft house in that area for $565k. That was the average going price for that size around that time. The smaller houses which is in the 1300sq-ft range were listing and selling for $540-550k range. The last 6 months, I've seen prices of those 1300sq-ft houses drift down to $480k and most of them are not selling. This past week, another 1300sq-ft house listed for $460k-$475k, then 2 days later, dropped to $450k-$465k. It's still not sold. So I'm not sure what's the going rate for those houses in that area is right now, but it seems like it has to be less than $450k.

I don't have much faith right now in the accuracy of the median price info that we get from Dataquick and CAR and others, real-time observations that we share with each other currently have more impact with me.

The monthly stats we get from DQ and CAR are dated, such that the info that we'll get in the next week for June activity from Dataquick, for example, will reflect offers made on homes back in April and May.

I've seen home sales in my area hit a brick wall, even with significant price reductions. But today's market conditions will not show up in the numbers until roughly mid-September. Many potential homebuyers in September will be basing their decisions on today's market conditions.

That's why I get my current market data from piggington and Bob C. I speak with him regularly about the market. You really need to work with a good realtor like Bob to keep yourself in the know. The media lags by one year. The DataQuick and NAR reports lag by 3 months. And they don't give you the whole story.

DataQuick was showing median price rising until just last month, whereas I knew from Bob C. that the low end stopped rising in 2004 and the mid and high end in 2005. When the market turns back up, the realtors will know. The media will still write that RE is dead for one year after the market has turned.

Look at inventory, DOM, HAI (home affordability index), and stay in touch with a realtor to help you figure out the proper market price and make good negotiations. A good realtor is worth their fee. I am now convinced that a good realtor is essential in structuring a good deal. Unless you have your own MLS access and can make the necessary research. Two big IFs.

One correction that you got backwards. I was selling homes in 2003 and 2004, lots of homes. The high end generally peaked in 2004 while the low end continued to rise through 2005. What is happening now is the high end folks have recognized this and are pushing all the prices down below them.

AsianNautica
I know the Compass Point area pretty well. A year ago the smaller units were selling between 500 and 525. While there were a couple higher sales the market was really at 500 to 525. In the last 6 months there were 2 sales at 480 in March but there have been 3 sales at 495 to 500 April, May and June. I Just checked and prices seem to be somewhere between 450 and 500 which would correspond with the 5 to 10% decline I am seeing most places. There are currently 6 on the market with none pending. It looks like the new one (only 5 days on market) is trying to grab the next sale. As I mentioned previously it is not a question of at what price anymore as much as it is a question of can you sell with low demand.

sdr, I can see that representing both buyer and seller helps to increase sales volume, since the $1.25 mil counts twice, once for buyer side, once for seller side. So good for you. I hope it goes through. But what do you think about dual agency?

Here's one from a neighborhood I've been watching for a little over a year now in Rancho Bernardo (SD County)...MLS#066034540.

Per Zip:
Price Reductions:
5/22/06 $760,000 to $724,900
6/20/06 $724,900 to $699,000
7/10/06 $699,000 to $684,000

From ZipRealty:
"Description:
Check out this price! Huge reductions! Motivated seller! Two homes just like this sold for $775,000 and $800,000 earlier this year! Pride of... more"

This is a pretty nice house, too. Listings in the entire meighborhood appear to be chasing the market down, too, with price reductions. More coming on the market soon, too. Sooooo glad I didn't buy in here last year. What would make a prospective buyer pull the trigger NOW, when all he sees around him is prices being reduced every couple of weeks/months?

Patience, grasshoppa.

Places where my frined was looking into 92131 townhouse's Nob Hill:

Saw that 1000-1090 Sqft town homes (2 bed/bath/2 car garage) on sale for a range from 370-405k (there was a total of 4 homes, took 3-5 months to sell) have not checked it lately, a couple were pulled(not sure if in excrow or relist).
1150-1400 sqft townhomes (2 bed/bath/2 car garage) rnaged from 415k-455k.

sdrealtor, thanks for clarifying. I guess it was lower last year than I thought. Which would definitely lower the the % decline. I agree with you that the new is definitely trying to grab the next sale since it's listed @ 450-465, while most others have been on the market for several months in the 480-500 range. If this house does not sell in the next week or 2, I would definitely say that the "market" price of those houses are under 450. We'll just have to wait and see.

When are the RE companies goint to start charging to list homes, with 22k homes on the market just hanging a sign must be expensive. That is the business to be in, RE signs, a growth market.

PS,
I dont like dual agency as its impossible to represent the best interests of two individuals with competing interests. I have never sold anything as a dual agent.

AN,
My pleasure. I think its a great location with relatively afforbable homes. I had a client that looked extensively there 1 year ago but he decided to buy a townhome in the UTC area instead. If it was me, I would have bought there. Hopefully, it will get more affordable there for you.

That was the area I was interested in and still keep an eye on. But now, I'm more interested in the house w/ big lots on northern side of Mira Mesa & Sorrento Valley, along the Calle Cristabal Blvd. Our price range will be between 500-600, so, we'll see what I can get at the bottom of this cycle.

Have a friend who lives there on the canyon. Some great locations. Good luck, I suspect you'll get what you want and more.

Have a friend who lives there on the canyon. Some great locations. Good luck, I suspect you'll get what you want and more.

That's exactly the location that I'm looking at too. In fact, I just got back from mountain biking in the canyon (it's a huge preserve) and was taking a look at the houses up on the hill.

sdr, do you think the buyers at Arroyo Vista in Carlsbad got a good deal? (The one at Avenida de Sueno) Nice house...

There are two in escrow there and both were on the market for several months. I'd expect both buyers were able to negotiate good prices given current market conditions and considering there are 3 or 4 others for sale on that street. We'll have to see after they close.

Thank you. They are beautiful homes, and I dream of owning one like that someday.

They are beautiful homes, and I dream of owning one like that someday.

Surely, you mean renting, Powayseller? ;)