San Diego Housing Bubble News and Analysis

I think that sign is funny and should be kept in good repair.

What is probably more obnoxious is that there is a Justice of Peace in New Orleans, Louisiana, a real Homo Sapiens in flesh and blood, who refuses to marry interracial couple. Now that is an obnoxious old sign as bad as the old "Colored" bathroom signs.

i can see the humor in it. but i was looking at it more from the perspective of the sign poster. the sign is obnoxious, slightly condescending, and implies that the poster is smart while dissenters are dumb. After the sign poster is shown to be really, profoundly wrong, you'd think the kind of person who would've posted the sign would pull it down. but maybe not. dumb sign.

I don't find the sign even slightly obnoxious because in the end, over the long haul, the sign has been correct for about 230 years.

prove it, oh wise guru. like with numbers. adjusted for inflation. also, over 230 years, the picture should be of a dead guy, not an old guy!

aren't like 30% of fha loans over the last year defaulting? how could that be? oh wait, i get it, they just have to wait a couple centuries and they'll be all right!

Scaredycat, continue as a renter and put your money in the stock market, or gold, or silver... no wait... I can get you such a deal on derivatives.

The point is, if you are looking for investments then there are no sure bets.

If you are looking for a place to live and raise your family then I think it is better to build equity (slowly) than to flush rent money down the toilet each month. You must pay to live somewhere.

What does the FHA default rate, which is not 30%, have to do with this conversation?

No different than someone with an Obama bumper sticker. Freedom of speech.

Except in this case it is just a little advertising. See how you remember its a pumpkin farm rather than just some sign along the freeway.

Hey, it's better than the usual pumpkin with pants bending over mooning the spectators. har.

please guru, distingish for me why rent money is toilet money, but additional fees and PMI on an fha loan is not toilet money. shouldn't any financially responsible person who saved up some money avoid an fha loan if they plan to live in the place a few years? And if one hasn't saved up some money and doesn't plan to live in the place a few years, why the heck should the govt be giving you money to buy a place? I see the fha default rate as being relevant to the ability of the ponzi scheme to continue. Maybe the sign will someday read, "This is a picture of a young man waiting for his house to get back to break-even".

In your case, not the owner, rent money is toilet money because it only benefits the property owner who had the courage to own the space you inhabit, who can make you move and where you have no chance to gain equity... zero. You are only an observer not a player.

The FHA buyer is paying MIP because they did not have 10% plus closing costs is in the game and while there is no guarantee they will gain financially, history is on their side. In the meantime, they have a home, their special place.

My perspective has the advantage of many years and my many homes bought and sold never once at a loss. My almost 40 year perspective is based on personal knowledge of thousands of families who have used high leverage FHA and VA financing to buy their home, raise their families and then retired on their equity.

I cannot promise that when you leave for work you will not be crushed by a runaway bus or have an airplane fly into your head and I cannot promise, if you buy a home , you will make money.

All I can promise is while observers may be entertained they will never be winners at the game they watch.

Oy vey.

Kool-aid for sale! Get your fresh Kool-aide!

Now we know for a fact the bubble is back -- see the bull trolls, just like those trolls at the peak of the housing bubble who swore that prices could never fall, and that those of us who predicted ~50% declines were crazy.

It'll be fun to see how this ends... ;)

Arraya, isn't that cute, a one liner safely thrown like a mud ball from behind the crowd. Show a little courage.. step up and contribute something intelligent.

Re the "courage to buy" kool-aid:

Let's see, my choice is to continue renting my 2 bedrooms in a friend's house for $600/month, coping with a smelly washing machine and his dirty dishes, but saving up $1000/month and with the option to move at any time since I am renting month-to-month...

Or to buy a skeevy apartment conversion in a neighborhood with too much crime, paying $1000+/month for the privilege, and pretty much locked into it for years if not decades because (1) if prices go up again I can afford nothing better in this area and (2) if prices go down I will be upside-down in said skeevy condo with no chance to sell out and get into anything better.

These are my choices with my current finances.

"Courage" in this case looks like leaping off a cliff without a bungee cord. If this market does not go down any further and it is clear I will be priced out forever, I can always pack up my savings and move to the MidWest. I have a BSME, I should be able to find some job to live on, and I for damn sure will be able to find something decent to live in.

And if the decent housing does ever go down further, I am sitting pretty.

The trick is trying to see through all this fog of BS the legislators/banks/et al are blowing through this market. When both Rich and the regular Pigg realtors here on the board are confused, I know it's bad. So I'm just marking time on the side of the road for now.

Oh, Yeahhhhhhhh!!!!!!

I just read 'FHA' October 19, 2009 - 2:48pm comment in full.

Holy cow, the Kool-Aid Man is here, wearin' a smile.

Arraya is consistently courageous and offers intelligent discourse and links. Speak for yourself Mr. Spam.

ya gotta expect some level of guff when you call yourself the guru of anything.

isn't paying property tax (minus the tax deduction percentage over and above what i woulda gotten with the standard deduction) throwing money in the toilet?

maintenance? isn't hat throwing money into (literally) the toilet?

isn't putting money into a depreciating asset throwing money out the window?

all that said, we're trying to buy a damned house. but that doesn't mean I don't think I'm trying to throw money out the window.

but guru -- isn't the whole fha program kinda like the govt throwing money down the toilet?

There the RE machinery goes again.

What if rent is less for the same house? You can rent, safe the difference, invested then pay pay cash for a house later.

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Here's the info on this bull. Decide for your yourself.

License Type: BROKER

Name: Ladewig, William James

Mailing Address: 12338 NACIDO DR
SAN DIEGO, CA 92128

License ID: 00968137

Expiration Date: 09/22/11

License Status: LICENSED *** RESTRICTED ***

Broker License Issued: 08/09/99 (Unofficial -- taken from secondary records)

Former Name(s): NO FORMER NAMES

Main Office: 12338 NACIDO DR
SAN DIEGO, CA 92128

DBA NO CURRENT DBAS

Branches: NO CURRENT BRANCHES

Affiliated Licensed Corporation(s):
01263932 - Officer Expiration Date: 09/22/11
Malan Financial Alliance Corporation
**THIS OFFICER IS RESTRICTED. THIS CORP IS RESTRICTED.**
OFFICER CANCELED AS OF 04/10/08

01160503 - Officer Expiration Date: 06/13/01
American Home Lenders Corporation
EXPIRED AS OF 06/14/01

Comment:
03/08/03 - H-2823 SD

09/23/03 - REVOKED-RIGHT TO RESTRICTED LICENSE

01/02/09 - PETITION FOR REINSTATEMENT OF BROKER LICENSE WITHOUT RESTRICTIONS DENIED

03/02/89 - CONDITIONAL LICENSE SUSPENSION. EDUCATION REQUIREMENTS NOT FILED.

08/28/91 - CONDITIONAL SUSPENSION REMOVED. EDUCATIONAL REQUIREMENTS MET.

>>>> Public information request complete <<<<
http://www2.dre.ca.gov/PublicASP/pplinfo...

Well said scardy...
Guruguy , please - go advertise elsewhere.

briansd1 - thanks for the disrobing. who are you...CIA?

disimilar1, all public records. You can check yourself.

You buyers out there, check the license info of your agent before you buy the bull.

I personally would buy from someone who is pleasant, helpful and is willing to show me the houses I want to see, without all the bullshit. I don't care if that person is successful or nor. I would actually like to help an honest person just starting out.

Now, if someone is going to be a financial adviser, or a wise man guiding you on the path to real estate success, he's better put up or shut up.

I just hate the strong-arm sales tactics.

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The business address of that broker is really a residential address owned by DEWITT GAYLE K REVOCABLE TRUST 06-28-06.

So Mr. William James Ladewig is renting? That would be a surprise!

Check the Recorder. Plenty of tax liens.
https://arcc.co.san-diego.ca.us/services...

Brian, Where do you find these things?

people can get licenses suspended for all kinds of unimportant technical reasons, failing to pay fees, not doing relatively meaningless continuing education requirements. guru, why was yours suspended, if it was? It doesn't mean you cannot enlighten me, but it's just kind of interesting.

i cannot figure out what all those tax liens are, though? Are all those pages of liens from the IRS? wouldn't it just be one lien for each tax year?

but i don't understand. how can there be all these tax liens if he bought and sold so many homes over 40 years and has so much wealth and experience in financial matters? Some disciples believe he has been alive for 230 years. I for one believe it.

guru -- what -- I --- please, tell me. How is this? is it all part of the plan? Or are the non-believers mocking the all-knowing guru without any basis?

Twilight of the Gods...

.

I apologize, that was rude. I've developed a condition similar to the boy in the movie the The Sixth Sense. Instead of seeing dead people, I see bullshit. It's everywhere.

fhaguru = financial advisor.

in fact, you're giving financial advice on the largest investment anyone here is likely to make.

home ownership not repugnant.

looking to get a good deal.

why is an fha loan a good financial move, fha guru?

most tax protestors have kookier world views than even me and i think tend to be naive and undereducated.

Nice shooting Brian. Would love to have ya on the conservative right side though ;) ...someday you'll see the light!!!

Most new people here dont understand how not only we already won the debate on rent vs own years ago on here but dont understand who was really throwing money away. I remember when the houses we wanted were 600-700k and knuckleheads were telling us to buy because we were renting in the same area for $1600 a month. Do the math over 5 years and I won by hundreds of thousands while only "throwing away" 20k a year in rent (and still lived somewhere). It was the best choice I ever made. At some point it will be throwing money away but in most areas it is not there yet. Glad my area made more sence but I am not trying to buy in SD thank god.