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Now that Cramer has called bottom, can I retract my call?User Forum Topic
Submitted by temeculaguy on June 16, 2009 - 3:39pm
The kiss of death, like being on the Madden cover (sorry, sports reference, athletes on the cover of the madden football video game usually get hurt or have terrible seasons immediately after being selected to be on the cover, it's referred to as the "madden curse"). This might be the Cramer curse for my prediction that 2009 is the bottom for my little corner of the world.
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TG is a Madden guy? When buying my place I turned down a many home that did not feature a sufficient loft for the daily Madden match-ups here...
Eclipxe: As a youth football coach, the favorite part of my season happens when all these 10 - 12 year old "coordinators" bring me plays that they've designed on Madden. Some of them actually aren't bad and we ran one particularly zany play for a touchdown once, using an unbalanced line and four men in the backfield.
Wish I had Madden when I was a kid... Well, we did, but he was coaching the Raiders!
Cramer's an idiot. But we knew that.
Unfortunately, the financial media seems to be focusing on very short term things.
The article linked says that there is a 17% increase in housing starts compared to last month. It fails to state that it was down 45.2% from May 2008. That is NOT good news.
It's like all the focus on the 2nd derivitive... the economic indicators are contracting at a slower rate... They're still contracting but if you listen to CNBC, Bloomberg, etc crowing aobut it you'd think we had growth rather than contraction.
Cramer's one of the leading idiots... but there are plenty of idiots following behind him.
Unfortunately, the financial media seems to be focusing on very short term things.
The article linked says that there is a 17% increase in housing starts compared to last month. It fails to state that it was down 45.2% from May 2008. That is NOT good news.
It's like all the focus on the 2nd derivitive... the economic indicators are contracting at a slower rate... They're still contracting but if you listen to CNBC, Bloomberg, etc crowing aobut it you'd think we had growth rather than contraction.
Cramer's one of the leading idiots... but there are plenty of idiots following behind him.
Actually I cannot figure out why any builder is building anything in the T.V. if they cannot turn a profit (or at least not enough to make it worth all the head aches).
Building in Socal is way down so I look at this as a positive for home prices in the future (here, near or not so near). They should (or I would at least) be building zero homes at the moment I would think.
If they want to lose money they could build schools for free or something but I digress.
At current rate of production we will soon be in a housing shortage in a lot of Socal area’s within say 5 or so years (I know that is hard to think about currently)
I am still sticking with close enough to the bottom for all of T.V. myself.
This is just my Opinion of course.
Crammer might be right about some markets, but others have 5-20% more to go to get back to 2000 pricing (pre-dubya).
Cramer has made the wrong call so often about banks and mortgages why does he make any calls?
Here is a clip of Cramer talking about WaMu and Downey S&L; only Greenspan was not laughing when he made these statements: http://www.pluggd.tv/audio/channels/cram...
"Oh, and that big jump in May housing starts? It is due to a 62% surge in multi-family homes — apartments, high rises, etc. — and not houses. If you want to read anything into it, the Home Builders are showing LESS CONFIDENCE in the Housing market, not more, as Jim asserts in the video. Rather than building to sell, they are building to rent. Hardly a broad endorsement."
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/06/cra...
I stole this from Soot and Ashes because it fits in so well with your thread, showing why someone would want to distance themselves from a Cramer call:
Jim Cramers call of the housing market bottom on national TV, July 25, 2008 on the Regis and Kelly Show:
Regis Philbin: These are tumultuous times.
Jim Cramer: ...I’m a buyer! I’m a buyer! I’m a buyer!
Regis Philbin: Is this the time to buy a house?
Jim Cramer: I want to buy not one house. I want to buy 2 houses. I wanna go…I’m going out to California in another month and a half. Prices were up very big there; looking at the Palm Springs area. Prices down 2/3rds. When are we gonna wait until we are down 100%?
Kelly Rippa: Isn’t it time for Regis to buy Joy that vacation home she’s dreamed of on the Florida beach? Isn’t it time for Regis?
Jim Cramer: Well, no. On the west side it’s already moved up. It’s too late. Can you believe it? East side, east side is there, 50% down. East side, I want you to go down with me and we go buy a couple. Go buy a couple!
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Jim Cramer, the liar, the hypocrite, the buffoon.
He'll be correct one of these years LOL
Even a broken clock is right twice a day.
Denninger has a great article today, it fits nicely too.
Japan inching closer.
What people like Cramer are missing:
Deflation.
From Bloomberg:
Ten-year yields will probably drop to as low as 1.5 percent over the next two years, Mizuho Asset’s Takei said.
The only way that happens is if The United States is gripped by a bone-crushing deflationary spiral.
It can happen. It probably will happen, despite The Fed's attempts to stop it, because in fact The Fed has done all the wrong things to stop it over the last ten years, and once you try to use bubble economics to get out of another bubble you have sealed your fate.
See, debt deflation cannot be avoided once you blow asset bubbles supported by debt - it simply can't. That cycle must end and when it does you wind up with the debt service sucking all the oxygen out of room and prohibiting growth. Once that condition asserts itself asset prices collapse and defaults go parabolic.
Put simply:
Once you start borrowing to pay current costs and interest - that is, you start "rolling forward" debt such that the amount outstanding increases as a percentage faster than GDP increases and this "rolling forward" shows up in asset prices, you are doomed to a deflationary credit collapse.
The longer you let it go on (or try to force it to go on) the worse the collapse will be.
This is mathematically certain - it is no more subject to avoidance than is the fact that you cannot "get" energy - you can store it, transform it or use it but each and every transformation will lose some of what you started with.
Likewise, once debt is taken on there are only two alternatives: PAY IT DOWN OR DEFAULT IT.
We have tried to "cheat death" for too long. Greenspan tried to avoid this deflationary collapse in 2001. He bought us how long? Seven years? Sounds good, right, except that the previous attempt was after 1987, and lasted 13 years, and this latest try required a bubble several times larger than the previous one!
Such is the nature of exponents.
Unfortunately in order to "blow a new bubble" to take the place of housing you'd have to find something that was $10 trillion in size or more.
There isn't any such thing, which is why all of these "alphabet soup" games aren't working and won't.
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/2008/04/off-reservation.html
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Denninger a year ago was sometimes viewed as a radical thinker. Now he has been shown to be probably the most accurate predictor of whats coming, IMHO.
His audit the Fed call seemed like "never gonna happen" rhetoric a year ago. Not in this country. But, now we have Ron Paul actaully gaining a little traction:
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A plan to open up the Federal Reserve to congressional audits received enough support in the House of Representatives this week to guarantee that it will receive a full hearing by lawmakers. Congressman Ron Paul (R-TX) has been the driving force behind H.R. 1207, the Federal Reserve Transparency Act, which would give the Government Accountability Office (GAO) authority to examine the Fed’s books and report to Congress on the performance of the national bank.
The bill now has 222 co-sponsors, most of whom are Republicans, but 52 of whom are Democrats, and it was a Democrat, Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich, who provided the 218th co-sponsorship for H.R. 1207 that allowed it to move out of committee and be debated on the House floor
http://www.allgov.com/ViewNews/Ron_Pauls_Audit_the_Fed_Bill_to_be_Debated_in_the_House_90615
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May you live in interesting times:)
I request you all please delete this post. We don't have to publish and consider Cramer' voice as one of expert. He doesn't know what he speaks, he simply speaks about 'Mad... n Money' but doesn't speak about worth of money at all. If we publish his voice then eventually people think that he is an expert.
If he is expert ... where the heck of his predictions about this much turmoil that ever happened in the history?..
TemeculaGuy is saying that Cramer is soooo aweful that he'd like to recant his (TVG's) previous prediction as to not be allied with a dumbass Cramer call.
I think he's calling Cramer the opposite of an "expert".
Crammer, the contrarian indicator. If you think things arent about to get a lot worse for the economy, take a quick read from Nate's latest analysis:
http://economicedge.blogspot.com/2009/06...
Krugman today:
Rt.66 is correct in his assumption, sorry if it seemed confusing 5year, perhaps i should have linked my reference point.
http://www.snopes.com/sports/football/ma...
I thought all San Diegans would know about the madden curse, Ladanian Tomlinson was scheduled to be on it last year and San Diegans went nuts (LT ended up refusing). Vince Young ended up on the cover, and within a few months he was finished.
With regards to cramer, I highly doubt any piggies would suddenly think we are endorsing him, he's usually wrong and that is why I was unhappy he came to the same conclusion I did, making me doubt myself.
Here's a non sports analogy, imagine you are the smartest kid in class, next to you sits the dumbest kid in class. You are taking a test, you come up with the first few answers, casually look over at dummy and he has the same answers. You know he's wrong, he's always wrong, so are you wrong or did he copy you. You hide your answers for the next batch, look over and he's got all the same answers again, CRAP!
Wrong or right, there are certain people you never want agreeing with you, they make you want to do your research over, cramer is one of those people. He makes so many predictions that he's bound to get some of them right, he has called the bottom or the top for every market so many times that I can't tell if he's just lucky (like the broken clock being right twice a day) or if my prediction is now cursed. If my watch says it's 3 o'clock and the broken clock says the same, I'm going to have to call time on the phone because now I don't trust my watch.
Former govenor/current attorney general Jerry Brown said and did some things recently that I agreed with when I read them, Raiders owner Al Davis has made some off season player moves that I would have also done, but these guys are crazy people, so does that make me crazy too, do crazy people know they are going crazy when they do, is the first symptom of losing one's mind when you start agreeing with known crazy people, now cramer? What's next? Will I give out copies of David Lereah's book for Christmas?
I cut my wine down to just a couple nights a week a few months ago and started jogging 5 days a week (in preparation for thong season), I think I'm going to abandon this health kick, it's screwing me up.
"in preparation for thong season"
I hope that won't be you in the thong!
I think he's calling Cramer the opposite of an "expert".
I understood what TG is saying. What I am asking is better to delete this entire Cramer's thread and don't even publish whatever Cramer express hereafter - so that from now folks wouldn't even think about Cramer's voice as an expert voice. Just aksing IGNORE to publish even this kind of cramer's Weather Cock slogans :-)
I think he's calling Cramer the opposite of an "expert".
I understood what TG is saying. What I am asking is better to delete this entire Cramer's thread and don't even publish whatever Cramer express hereafter - so that from now folks wouldn't even think about Cramer's voice as an expert voice. Just aksing IGNORE to publish even this kind of cramer's Weather Cock slogans :-)
But where would be the fun in MOCKING Cramer, then?