San Diego Housing Bubble News and Analysis

Well, the "better" markets are the last to fall. And they generally don't fall as hard. So, we'll see.

On a slightly different topic, I believe you mentioned in a different thread that you were seeing foreclosures that would cash flow. I haven't seen this, although I am now seeing properties - mainly in south San Diego - in which the rent would cover the mortgage (and HOAs) with conventional financing (20% down). In fact, there are more than a few of these now. But this is relatively recent, as in within the last two months.

But I still haven't seen anything anywhere that would cash flow after taking into account maintenance, vacancies, etc. But at least rents that cover the mortgage is a step in the right direction.

Have you seen specific properties where the rent would cover the mortgage AND all operating expenses (including vacancies), which generally eat up 25%-35% of rents?

The properties I have seen were attached with HOA fees that cover alot of the maintenance. They are in areas that rent well. The rent of the units would be on the low end of rents for comparable size properties so that should help them stay rented also. I think 25 to 35% for maintenance is a bit high but maybe I'm wrong.

The units that I like are selling at least 100,000 below peak prices and these units sold that high a few dozen times. My thought is if you are sitting on a bunch of cash getting 4 or 5% in the bank these units are starting to look good. At current prices they will provide 4 to 6% returns to a cash buyer, a tax loss annually and potentially a 6 figure upside in 10 years or less.

Foreclosureradar.com agrees with your assessment, sd:

http://www.foreclosureradar.com/free-for...

That site shows only six 4-bedroom, 2500+ sq. ft SFRs in the 92024 zip code that are in various states of foreclosure.

My understanding is that smaller residences were purchased by subprime borrowers. Those mortgages began to reset in earnest in 2006. The bigger residences in more posh areas like Encinitas were purchased by 'prime' borrowers using pay option ARMs. Those mortgages begin to reset in earnest this year. Thus, my guess is that we'll see places like Encinitas start to take a hit later this year. And since these places were purchased using Pay Option ARMs, you'll see massive mortgages as compared to the value of the associated homes.

A pretty decent article on Pay Option ARMs can be found here:

http://www.toomre.com/Pay_Option_ARM_Wor...

This LA Times article suggests that the second tide of the mortgage defaults are about to start. After reviewing data from mortgage industry data trackers, the author concludes that Pay Option ARM borrowers -- "most of whom boast respectable and often top-tier credit scores and appear to have substantial incomes and home equity" – are having severe delinquency problems that are tied to the loose lending practices that inundated the sub-prime business. Pay Option ARM loans often were granted on the basis of stated income, not proof of a borrower's income, giving rise to their nickname, "liar's loans."

davelj,

I'm not sure I would feel too comfortable buying a rental in South San Diego. I just read an article describing how illegals are leaving their rentals with no notice and heading back across the border due to the lack of construction work. Additionally, as we head into a recession and more of the vacant pre-foreclosure homes come back on line, I would expect rents to decline. Of course, folks who buy rentals now will be a heckuva lot better off than those who bought 'investment' properties two to three years ago.

Breeze,

Not to worry. I'm not really interested in buying rental units in south San Diego. I only mentioned south San Diego because things are further along the way to making sense there from an investment perspective than other parts of the county. Your observation about Mexicans heading back to Mexico makes sense to me, but a friend of mine is seeing something completely different. He's a partner in a company that owns two large apartment complexes in Chula Vista (more than 400 units between the two of them). They have zero vacancies and are raising rents 8% as new tenants come in. They're seeing an overflow from people losing their homes and needing to rent. He thinks rents will eventually flatten out as the REOs get sold to investors but that could be a couple of years off. Anyhow, just an interesting data point.

sdrealtor,

25%-35% of rent for maintenance and vacancies is an industry standard. New paint, carpet, etc. plus vacancies really adds up, especially in a rental where then tenant generally doesn't care too much. I'm not saying that there aren't properties worth buying right now as rentals. I'm merely saying that I doubt there's anything that "truly" cash flows out there after taking into account all of the operating expenses. But we'll get there. There were plenty of them around in '96-'98. We'll see similar relative pricing again.

My guess was that people would dig in and stop trading houses like cars. To date that is what seems to be happening

Patience, my young Jedi, patience.

It will happen, but it will take some time...

Spot on old chap :-)

http://c21wright.idxco.com/idx/2374/deta...

This is one of many homes out there and there are many 1.1mil to 1.2 that will meet your criteria sdrealtor with a 20% drop over the next few months. There is a lot of inventory at higher prices on Redfin and some have been there for a while. The 2400 sq ft criteria is more than a decent home size - it's above average it appears. The home above is older but in turnkey condition with established landscapes - very little needs to be done imo.

The above home is desparately in need of help and hardly in turnkey condition. Its 34 years old and has never been updated. It is located in a relatively run down part of the area with a below average elementary school for the district. This is not the kind of home young professional families are looking for.

As for the higher priced homes, sure they will come down a bit but not 20% en masse. Its gonna take time and for the time being its not looking great for bargain hunters around here. As proof of this I just saw a house go in escrow in this area well above what I ever imagined it would sell for. I spoke with the agent and she attributed it to, surprise...the lakck of available inventory in this range.