The number of NOD's in CV for SFR's is so negligible at this point it is rather amazing. You can always pull out a few but I wouldnt take this as anything meaningfull. Not that it wont be, but for now the trend is not your friend in Carmel Valley these days.
As the late great Chick Hearns, voice of the LA Lakers, would say..."looks like the mustard fell off the hotdog!"
On the other hand there are a lot more than 50 houses in CV. I am not sure late taxes should count for more than .25xNOD distress. Who knows? It ain't looking good...even in some instances in "Americas Wealthiest zip code".
I think CV is following right in the footsteps of 4S Ranch. We saw a trickle of distress sales in 4S in 2006, then they picked up in 07 and continued to gather momentum in 2008. We saw that trickle in CV start last year and continue this year in an ever increasing manner... slow but increasing. It will continue through the next several years. However in my book, even the distress sales are way overpriced. Hopefully in the next few years the pricing will come down substantially but those who think it will happen tomorrow are sadly mistaken in my opinion.
It seems you might have missed Jim the Realtor's recent acticle entitled "How Many Motivated Sellers." In particular his (and others) follow-on dialogue in the Readers Comments section. See:
There are currently 84 properties in default in CV (30 detached, 54 attached). Sorry, but this isn't pulling out "just a few." 84 is far from "negligible". I think it is time to stop "perfuming the pig", things are getting significantly uglier just beneath the surface.
New_Renter, as you pointed out, 30 are detached and 54 are attached. There are 200 houses for sale right now and 73 condos. So, if all the distress houses are on the market right now, that's only 15% of total SFR inventory. While, it's 74% of the condo's inventory. Hence the price strength differences. I don't know if 15% is big or small, maybe a historical data might able to give a clearer picture.
Sorry I dont read his blog. In the tax records I couldnt find 30 detached properties in default. I specifically addressed dettached properties as condos in CV are an entirely different market.
I'm not saying it isnt coming but its not here yet. As for OCR's claim of late tax payments, I've seen homes with 5 years of tax payments in arrears. Late/unpaid taxes arent the same thing as an NOD. The fuse on then is much longer longer and alot can happen in a few years vs. a few months.
Submitted by New_Renter on May 31, 2008 - 10:16am.
sdrealtor: ForeclosureRadar.com is the best source I have found for NOD/NOT's (recommend it over Foreclosure.com for it's better u/i). Jim the Realtor easily found them as well, so I'm not sure why you are having trouble. It is clearly highly accurate, as you can see the full public record (i.e. names, loan amts...everything)
Sorry asianautica, but this is beyond what has ever been seen in CV, and the difference recently is that the NOD's are in "PRIME" developments. Currently there are active NOD's in: Meadows Del Mar, Private Collection, Promontory, Vista Santa Barabara, Santa Barbara, Monte Claire, Triple Crown, Steeplechase, Collins Ranch, Santa Rosa, among others. All scheduled for future auction on the courthouse steps. Now, not all of these will actually be foreclosed on, but a high percentage will. I could throw the addresses of these properties up here right now, but if your really curious, get a trial to ForeclosureRadar and see for yourself. It is easy to do.
I am really tired of the "but, but, but" (i.e. but, but 54 are attached, but, but there were strong Pendings last month, but, but CV is great....). Be clear, I'm not cheerleading what is happening, I'm simply telling it like it is. I'm tired of the sugar-coating, I'm tired of the Realtor industry gloming onto a single positive stat and then cheerleading and grandstanding it to death without informing people of the big picture. I'm tired of the RE industry pulling the wool over everyone's eyes.
For the record: I do agree with sdrealtor and SD Realtor that buying right now is a purely personal decision and that there are ALWAYS going to be people deciding to pull the trigger for a myriad of reasons, no matter the market conditions and how poor the outlook. It's emotional. You can't argue that, but while a personal decision to buy now may be the right decision for an individual, it doesn't mean it was a smart decision financially, or free from significant risk.
Submitted by SD Realtor on May 31, 2008 - 10:31am.
Well I would agree there is alot of cheerleading in the industry, that is sure the truth. I don't think any of the regular realtors who post here fall into that category though. Yeah we get the trolls who divebomb in from time to time.
Before bed last night I went into the Realist search and did the foreclosure search within Realist. Indeed 84 properties did come up in Carmel Valley. I did not parse through them individually to to figure out attached verses detached but I know Jim's work is accurate and I do read his posts. While not all of these distressed properties are on the market it is more then likely that most of them will be eventually. I find that there is a high rate of recidivism for people who fall behind in mortgage payments.
Again, my read is that CV is doing what CV should do. Similarly the properties that get priced even a tad aggressively seem to get scooped up pretty quick. There is no argument that even those that get scooped up have depreciated so that is an encouraging trend to see. So in short it will happen, or shall we say, it IS happening and it will continue to do so. More raindrops will come in the form of more distressed properties and in a few years we will be able to look back and hopefully find some big 20-30% numbers off of CV.
New_Renter, there's no "but" from me, just asking for more data to determine a trend. 1 data point does not create a trend, we all should know that. We all already know the condo market in CV is very different than the SFR in CV, nothing new. Stop getting so defensive. We all are hear to analyze the data, hence the site's motto. If this is the first data point, great, we'll keep an eye on it to see if it affects the CV market sooner or later. Will CV fall the way MM did 2-3 years from now? No one knows, but we can make educated guess base on the data trickling in every day.
I have doubts single family homes in CV will fall more than 10-15%. Compare them to condos in downtown that are still in a huge bubble. I know it is a cliche, but for rich foriegners paying a $1M for beautiful home in paradise is a bargain when they are used to living in a 2 bedroom flat. Just how many can make it over here is the big question. CV is very desirable area and we had an old thread that stated that 10% of San Diego households are millionaires, excluding homes. At least 2% of the jobs in the area are very high paying, many families are dual professional incomes, many people have cashed out and waiting to buy in CV. Unless we have big recession and people dump cell phones and other gadgets, why would anything change?
Submitted by New_Renter on May 31, 2008 - 11:42am.
asianautica, I'm not the one being defensive here, I was taking exception to the earlier post that the NOD's in CV were "negligible". Come'on, let's get real, during the boom there were essentially NO defaults in CV. Think back in time a little...if you suggested to someone, even in 2006, that there would be 30 SFR defaults in the prime areas of CV, they would commit you to an insane asylum. Your point is well taken though on the trend, it would be good to see a CV specific NOD multi-year trend graph. I don't know how to go back in time and get this. Can anyone help? Maybe Jim-the-Realtor, he seems to be one of the best at digging into the data.
Based on my experience during the last bust as well as what I'm seeing in this bust, I am of the opinion that the foreclosures don't start driving the pricing until they pass 25% or 30% of the total sales. Once that happens the lenders start competing with each other instead of with the discretionary sellers. That's when they get more agressive in their discounting.
We're obviously not at that point yet, but I'm pretty confident we'll get there within the next year or so.
Think back a little in time and there were essentially NO defaults anywhere. Prices were rising and anyone could refi out of trouble. Times is a different now. We all know that.
While there are defaults in each of those communities you mentioned in CV, there seemed to be 1 or at most 2 in each. Hardly the sign of widespread panic. I'm not claiming it isnt coming but rather that it isnt here yet.
I dont relie on anyone's research of the market only my own as I havent found any other Realtors with the analytical skills and experience I have (CPA, master degree in Financial Analysis, significant statistical and market research experience etc.) There are so many flaws in the data its not even worth getting into. The only way to really understand what is going on is to follow a micro market very closely and understand how to adjust for the unique differencews between each home/data point. Off my soapbox......
Bugs, it's good to hear your input on this (I respect your opinion as much as RT himself!). I never claimed that these growing CV foreclosures were causing any price action...yet. It is helpful to hear your observation that the 25% to 30% level of total sales is the trigger point for foreclosures driving the pricing. All I'm really saying is that this increasing number of NOD's in the prime areas of CV does not bode well for this "Sacred Cow." At the high-end, seller behaviour indicates many are still in "la la land". I'm in the fortunate position of being able to buy anywhere and at anytime I choose in CV, but all the data is telling me the next 12-24 months won't be pretty, so renting still feels good for the time being. I really appreciate (as we all do) the inputs on this blog from everyone, including sdrealtor, SD Realtor, asianautica, raptorduck, yourself, and all the others.
School District, New Homes, Proximity to engineering and biotech jobs in the triangle. If you want a the first of those two items (or at least a home built in the past 7 years) you are limited to CV or else your next stop Torrey Highlands, then all the development off Camino Del Sur up to 4S.
While CV is not sdrealtors or cowboys choice, (nor is it my choice either) it is a desired destination for many folks, especially younger families.
(Actually I like a slice of the older developments in Del Mar Highlands but that is about it for me)
I don't know if have have traveled much, but north coastal region is very nice. CV is not as nice as sdrealtor's hangout, but it is "affordable" paradise.
I am not looking to buy in CV. I have not been following the market very closely up there.
However, FWIW, I used to live in CV from 1991 to 2001. I can tell you that during the RE slump back then, I saw prices fall 20% in a blink. I'm sure CV was just as desireable then w/its schools and location, etc. etc.
The incline in price back then was not nearly as great as this last cycle and it was not nearly as developed as it is now, yet they saw 20% declines.
Back then there were no special loans being utilized. There wasn't free money being given away. You had to put money down. You had to prove you can make payments. Most loans were 30-yr fixed, though they did have ARMs, but back then rates were high and one didn't risk taking an ARM for fear of rates rising. (Mine was 9 3/4 before refinancing years later)
All the stringent, normal loan requirements and they still had a 20% decline.
So, though I admit I'm not very up on CV nowadays, but seems to me probably people were availing themselves of our special free money financing to buy these newly developed McMansions in CV. And since CV does not live in a vacuum any more than LJ or PB, and they were subjected to bubblicious prices, well, I'll stick my neck out and say there will be some declines on the SFHs there as well. They participated in the bubble. They will suffer the consequences as well. Just will take time.
Ron Insana, Barry Ritholtz and Fleckenstein, the bear trifecta, not the permabull Kudlow.
So, what am I missing? There may be financial pain for 50-80% of families, but the top 10-20% have tremendous assets and can still buy what they want. BMW, Mercedes, Lexus sales are down 3-8% year over year, but look back at early 90's with 9% unemployment in San Diego and how much did coastal properties drop? 20-30%. We have less than 6% unemployment now, so unless we have big recession, CV prices should not fall 50%. While ARMs are much bigger part, most people have likely refinanced by now. If you have valid points I've missed please elaborate.
I subscribe to ForeclosureRadar.com and here are today's stats on foreclosures in Carmel Valley. There are a total 66 Notice of Defaults and 19 Notice of Trustee Sales. Since Jan 2008 there are approximately 14 bank owned properties.
In the 92127 zip code which is mainly 4S Ranch, the numbers are much higher. There are a total 107 Notice of Defaults and 32 Notice of Trustee Sales. Since Jan 2008 there are approximately 52 bank owned properties.
I have been watching my little area in Torrey Hills closely, and am puzzled by the small declines seen thus far.
I have formed an alternate theory that may explain the stickiness. In Silicon Valley there is a city, Cupertino, that is heavily Chinese. The city has no real redeeming value besides high test scores in the schools, at least relative to any of the other cities in the area. For some reason, Cupertino became a magnet for higher income Chinese professionals (the lower income go to Milpitas, across the valley). The result is that housing prices in Cupertino are, for the quality of what you get (mediocre 1970's era tract houses), quite high.
I am wondering if the same thing has happened to Carmel Valley and Torrey Hills, especially as I watched a parade of Chinese marching through open houses in this neighborhood, and recent house sales going to Chinese families.
I do not know whether this is significant, or even correct, but if it is, what does it mean for real estate values in the area long term?
I have been watching my little area in Torrey Hills closely, and am puzzled by the small declines seen thus far.
I have formed an alternate theory that may explain the stickiness. In Silicon Valley there is a city, Cupertino, that is heavily Chinese. The city has no real redeeming value besides high test scores in the schools, at least relative to any of the other cities in the area. For some reason, Cupertino became a magnet for higher income Chinese professionals (the lower income go to Milpitas, across the valley). The result is that housing prices in Cupertino are, for the quality of what you get (mediocre 1970's era tract houses), quite high.
I am wondering if the same thing has happened to Carmel Valley and Torrey Hills, especially as I watched a parade of Chinese marching through open houses in this neighborhood, and recent house sales going to Chinese families.
I do not know whether this is significant, or even correct, but if it is, what does it mean for real estate values in the area long term?
Trust me,
Carmel Valley schools are not Cupertino's :) Bay area has a huge asian population. San Diego is nothing compared to it.
BTW: contrary to popular belief, asian's aren't really "richer" than everyone else. Perhaps, statistically, more are better at money management and better savers/penny pinchers. There is more of an emphasis on a "need" to buy a house versus rent.
Doh, a friend of mine lives in that community two doors away from that NOD.
How do you find about about NODs in the CV or any other area for that matter - without paying to join a foreclosure website.
thanks
Doh, I think that was the community i was gonna buy in because my agent at the time was also listing for a client. It was still a deal though.
selfportrait
----- Sour grapes for everyone!
The number of NOD's in CV for SFR's is so negligible at this point it is rather amazing. You can always pull out a few but I wouldnt take this as anything meaningfull. Not that it wont be, but for now the trend is not your friend in Carmel Valley these days.
"Altogether, we have 4 distressed properties out of a community of 50 homes, or an 8% distress rate."
I don't know, 8% sounds kind of high considering this is "Carmel Valley". I would expect that in MM or Clairmont.
I think I smell popcorn.
As the late great Chick Hearns, voice of the LA Lakers, would say..."looks like the mustard fell off the hotdog!"
On the other hand there are a lot more than 50 houses in CV. I am not sure late taxes should count for more than .25xNOD distress. Who knows? It ain't looking good...even in some instances in "Americas Wealthiest zip code".
I think CV is following right in the footsteps of 4S Ranch. We saw a trickle of distress sales in 4S in 2006, then they picked up in 07 and continued to gather momentum in 2008. We saw that trickle in CV start last year and continue this year in an ever increasing manner... slow but increasing. It will continue through the next several years. However in my book, even the distress sales are way overpriced. Hopefully in the next few years the pricing will come down substantially but those who think it will happen tomorrow are sadly mistaken in my opinion.
SD Realtor
sdrealtor,
It seems you might have missed Jim the Realtor's recent acticle entitled "How Many Motivated Sellers." In particular his (and others) follow-on dialogue in the Readers Comments section. See:
http://www.bubbleinfo.com/journal/2008/5...
There are currently 84 properties in default in CV (30 detached, 54 attached). Sorry, but this isn't pulling out "just a few." 84 is far from "negligible". I think it is time to stop "perfuming the pig", things are getting significantly uglier just beneath the surface.
New_Renter
New_Renter, as you pointed out, 30 are detached and 54 are attached. There are 200 houses for sale right now and 73 condos. So, if all the distress houses are on the market right now, that's only 15% of total SFR inventory. While, it's 74% of the condo's inventory. Hence the price strength differences. I don't know if 15% is big or small, maybe a historical data might able to give a clearer picture.
Sorry I dont read his blog. In the tax records I couldnt find 30 detached properties in default. I specifically addressed dettached properties as condos in CV are an entirely different market.
I'm not saying it isnt coming but its not here yet. As for OCR's claim of late tax payments, I've seen homes with 5 years of tax payments in arrears. Late/unpaid taxes arent the same thing as an NOD. The fuse on then is much longer longer and alot can happen in a few years vs. a few months.
sdrealtor: ForeclosureRadar.com is the best source I have found for NOD/NOT's (recommend it over Foreclosure.com for it's better u/i). Jim the Realtor easily found them as well, so I'm not sure why you are having trouble. It is clearly highly accurate, as you can see the full public record (i.e. names, loan amts...everything)
Sorry asianautica, but this is beyond what has ever been seen in CV, and the difference recently is that the NOD's are in "PRIME" developments. Currently there are active NOD's in: Meadows Del Mar, Private Collection, Promontory, Vista Santa Barabara, Santa Barbara, Monte Claire, Triple Crown, Steeplechase, Collins Ranch, Santa Rosa, among others. All scheduled for future auction on the courthouse steps. Now, not all of these will actually be foreclosed on, but a high percentage will. I could throw the addresses of these properties up here right now, but if your really curious, get a trial to ForeclosureRadar and see for yourself. It is easy to do.
I am really tired of the "but, but, but" (i.e. but, but 54 are attached, but, but there were strong Pendings last month, but, but CV is great....). Be clear, I'm not cheerleading what is happening, I'm simply telling it like it is. I'm tired of the sugar-coating, I'm tired of the Realtor industry gloming onto a single positive stat and then cheerleading and grandstanding it to death without informing people of the big picture. I'm tired of the RE industry pulling the wool over everyone's eyes.
For the record: I do agree with sdrealtor and SD Realtor that buying right now is a purely personal decision and that there are ALWAYS going to be people deciding to pull the trigger for a myriad of reasons, no matter the market conditions and how poor the outlook. It's emotional. You can't argue that, but while a personal decision to buy now may be the right decision for an individual, it doesn't mean it was a smart decision financially, or free from significant risk.
Well I would agree there is alot of cheerleading in the industry, that is sure the truth. I don't think any of the regular realtors who post here fall into that category though. Yeah we get the trolls who divebomb in from time to time.
Before bed last night I went into the Realist search and did the foreclosure search within Realist. Indeed 84 properties did come up in Carmel Valley. I did not parse through them individually to to figure out attached verses detached but I know Jim's work is accurate and I do read his posts. While not all of these distressed properties are on the market it is more then likely that most of them will be eventually. I find that there is a high rate of recidivism for people who fall behind in mortgage payments.
Again, my read is that CV is doing what CV should do. Similarly the properties that get priced even a tad aggressively seem to get scooped up pretty quick. There is no argument that even those that get scooped up have depreciated so that is an encouraging trend to see. So in short it will happen, or shall we say, it IS happening and it will continue to do so. More raindrops will come in the form of more distressed properties and in a few years we will be able to look back and hopefully find some big 20-30% numbers off of CV.
SD Realtor
New_Renter, there's no "but" from me, just asking for more data to determine a trend. 1 data point does not create a trend, we all should know that. We all already know the condo market in CV is very different than the SFR in CV, nothing new. Stop getting so defensive. We all are hear to analyze the data, hence the site's motto. If this is the first data point, great, we'll keep an eye on it to see if it affects the CV market sooner or later. Will CV fall the way MM did 2-3 years from now? No one knows, but we can make educated guess base on the data trickling in every day.
I have doubts single family homes in CV will fall more than 10-15%. Compare them to condos in downtown that are still in a huge bubble. I know it is a cliche, but for rich foriegners paying a $1M for beautiful home in paradise is a bargain when they are used to living in a 2 bedroom flat. Just how many can make it over here is the big question. CV is very desirable area and we had an old thread that stated that 10% of San Diego households are millionaires, excluding homes. At least 2% of the jobs in the area are very high paying, many families are dual professional incomes, many people have cashed out and waiting to buy in CV. Unless we have big recession and people dump cell phones and other gadgets, why would anything change?
"Unless we have big recession..."
Uh, try getting your econ knowledge from somewhere else besides CNBC.
asianautica, I'm not the one being defensive here, I was taking exception to the earlier post that the NOD's in CV were "negligible". Come'on, let's get real, during the boom there were essentially NO defaults in CV. Think back in time a little...if you suggested to someone, even in 2006, that there would be 30 SFR defaults in the prime areas of CV, they would commit you to an insane asylum. Your point is well taken though on the trend, it would be good to see a CV specific NOD multi-year trend graph. I don't know how to go back in time and get this. Can anyone help? Maybe Jim-the-Realtor, he seems to be one of the best at digging into the data.
Based on my experience during the last bust as well as what I'm seeing in this bust, I am of the opinion that the foreclosures don't start driving the pricing until they pass 25% or 30% of the total sales. Once that happens the lenders start competing with each other instead of with the discretionary sellers. That's when they get more agressive in their discounting.
We're obviously not at that point yet, but I'm pretty confident we'll get there within the next year or so.
Think back a little in time and there were essentially NO defaults anywhere. Prices were rising and anyone could refi out of trouble. Times is a different now. We all know that.
While there are defaults in each of those communities you mentioned in CV, there seemed to be 1 or at most 2 in each. Hardly the sign of widespread panic. I'm not claiming it isnt coming but rather that it isnt here yet.
I dont relie on anyone's research of the market only my own as I havent found any other Realtors with the analytical skills and experience I have (CPA, master degree in Financial Analysis, significant statistical and market research experience etc.) There are so many flaws in the data its not even worth getting into. The only way to really understand what is going on is to follow a micro market very closely and understand how to adjust for the unique differencews between each home/data point. Off my soapbox......
Looks like Bugs was pointing out the same thing as I but a bit more succintly while I was typing away.
Bugs, it's good to hear your input on this (I respect your opinion as much as RT himself!). I never claimed that these growing CV foreclosures were causing any price action...yet. It is helpful to hear your observation that the 25% to 30% level of total sales is the trigger point for foreclosures driving the pricing. All I'm really saying is that this increasing number of NOD's in the prime areas of CV does not bode well for this "Sacred Cow." At the high-end, seller behaviour indicates many are still in "la la land". I'm in the fortunate position of being able to buy anywhere and at anytime I choose in CV, but all the data is telling me the next 12-24 months won't be pretty, so renting still feels good for the time being. I really appreciate (as we all do) the inputs on this blog from everyone, including sdrealtor, SD Realtor, asianautica, raptorduck, yourself, and all the others.
I don't understand why everybody thinks CV is so great. I live in CV and it's a nice place but no paradise by any stretch of the imagination.
I dont think it is so great. I dont even like it there. Regardless, it has a desireable location and great schools so it has held up well.
The desireability is 3 fold.
School District, New Homes, Proximity to engineering and biotech jobs in the triangle. If you want a the first of those two items (or at least a home built in the past 7 years) you are limited to CV or else your next stop Torrey Highlands, then all the development off Camino Del Sur up to 4S.
While CV is not sdrealtors or cowboys choice, (nor is it my choice either) it is a desired destination for many folks, especially younger families.
(Actually I like a slice of the older developments in Del Mar Highlands but that is about it for me)
SD Realtor
Cowboy,
I don't know if have have traveled much, but north coastal region is very nice. CV is not as nice as sdrealtor's hangout, but it is "affordable" paradise.
I am not looking to buy in CV. I have not been following the market very closely up there.
However, FWIW, I used to live in CV from 1991 to 2001. I can tell you that during the RE slump back then, I saw prices fall 20% in a blink. I'm sure CV was just as desireable then w/its schools and location, etc. etc.
The incline in price back then was not nearly as great as this last cycle and it was not nearly as developed as it is now, yet they saw 20% declines.
Back then there were no special loans being utilized. There wasn't free money being given away. You had to put money down. You had to prove you can make payments. Most loans were 30-yr fixed, though they did have ARMs, but back then rates were high and one didn't risk taking an ARM for fear of rates rising. (Mine was 9 3/4 before refinancing years later)
All the stringent, normal loan requirements and they still had a 20% decline.
So, though I admit I'm not very up on CV nowadays, but seems to me probably people were availing themselves of our special free money financing to buy these newly developed McMansions in CV. And since CV does not live in a vacuum any more than LJ or PB, and they were subjected to bubblicious prices, well, I'll stick my neck out and say there will be some declines on the SFHs there as well. They participated in the bubble. They will suffer the consequences as well. Just will take time.
Who I watch on CNBC:
Ron Insana, Barry Ritholtz and Fleckenstein, the bear trifecta, not the permabull Kudlow.
So, what am I missing? There may be financial pain for 50-80% of families, but the top 10-20% have tremendous assets and can still buy what they want. BMW, Mercedes, Lexus sales are down 3-8% year over year, but look back at early 90's with 9% unemployment in San Diego and how much did coastal properties drop? 20-30%. We have less than 6% unemployment now, so unless we have big recession, CV prices should not fall 50%. While ARMs are much bigger part, most people have likely refinanced by now. If you have valid points I've missed please elaborate.
April 2008 car sales:
http://www.autoobserver.com/2008/05/apri...
rmacdon1
I subscribe to ForeclosureRadar.com and here are today's stats on foreclosures in Carmel Valley. There are a total 66 Notice of Defaults and 19 Notice of Trustee Sales. Since Jan 2008 there are approximately 14 bank owned properties.
In the 92127 zip code which is mainly 4S Ranch, the numbers are much higher. There are a total 107 Notice of Defaults and 32 Notice of Trustee Sales. Since Jan 2008 there are approximately 52 bank owned properties.
I have been watching my little area in Torrey Hills closely, and am puzzled by the small declines seen thus far.
I have formed an alternate theory that may explain the stickiness. In Silicon Valley there is a city, Cupertino, that is heavily Chinese. The city has no real redeeming value besides high test scores in the schools, at least relative to any of the other cities in the area. For some reason, Cupertino became a magnet for higher income Chinese professionals (the lower income go to Milpitas, across the valley). The result is that housing prices in Cupertino are, for the quality of what you get (mediocre 1970's era tract houses), quite high.
I am wondering if the same thing has happened to Carmel Valley and Torrey Hills, especially as I watched a parade of Chinese marching through open houses in this neighborhood, and recent house sales going to Chinese families.
I do not know whether this is significant, or even correct, but if it is, what does it mean for real estate values in the area long term?
I have been watching my little area in Torrey Hills closely, and am puzzled by the small declines seen thus far.
I have formed an alternate theory that may explain the stickiness. In Silicon Valley there is a city, Cupertino, that is heavily Chinese. The city has no real redeeming value besides high test scores in the schools, at least relative to any of the other cities in the area. For some reason, Cupertino became a magnet for higher income Chinese professionals (the lower income go to Milpitas, across the valley). The result is that housing prices in Cupertino are, for the quality of what you get (mediocre 1970's era tract houses), quite high.
I am wondering if the same thing has happened to Carmel Valley and Torrey Hills, especially as I watched a parade of Chinese marching through open houses in this neighborhood, and recent house sales going to Chinese families.
I do not know whether this is significant, or even correct, but if it is, what does it mean for real estate values in the area long term?
Trust me,
Carmel Valley schools are not Cupertino's :) Bay area has a huge asian population. San Diego is nothing compared to it.
BTW: contrary to popular belief, asian's aren't really "richer" than everyone else. Perhaps, statistically, more are better at money management and better savers/penny pinchers. There is more of an emphasis on a "need" to buy a house versus rent.
selfportrait
----- Sour grapes for everyone!