San Diego Housing Market News and Analysis
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I started this website in mid-2004 to chronicle San Diego’s spectacular housing bubble. The purpose of the site remains, as ever, to provide objective and evidence-based analysis of the San Diego housing market. A quick guide to the site follows:
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Submitted by Rich Toscano on February 26, 2010 - 8:32pm
A couple of interesting bailout-related items crossed my desk today. I have given up on trying to keep track of all the bailouts, but these both relate directly to our beloved topic of shadow inventory so I thought I'd note them.
First, the White House is trying to ban any foreclosure unless the loan in question has been screened for HAMP, the government's flavor-of-the-month home loan modification program. As I understand it, HAMP has been fairly useless, for reasons I will describe below. But no matter -- an extra mandatory step to screen every mortgage for eligibility will further delay the foreclosure process, perhaps resulting in even more delinquent mortgages remaining in pre-foreclosure limbo.
The reason that HAMP and the government's other varied foreclosure prevention schemes haven't made much of a splash is that they don't address the main cause of foreclosures: that many homeowners owe more than their homes are worth.
continue reading at voiceofsandiego.org
Submitted by Rich Toscano on February 21, 2010 - 9:13pm
The median price per square foot declined between December and
January for both detached homes and condos:
Prices by this measure have really gone nowhere since September
2009. As I noted at the Voice last week, the rally that began in early 2009 has
clearly come to an end.
Submitted by Rich Toscano on February 19, 2010 - 12:19pm
I haven't focused on new foreclosure activity for a while because
the topic has become somewhat irrelevant, analytically speaking.
question is not whether a large "shadow inventory" of foreclosed homes
exists -- it does -- but whether and over what timeframe that inventory will
actually become relevant by entering the market. That being
the case, the question of how fast the shadow inventory might be
growing isn't terribly high on my list of compelling topics.
It is nonetheless at least mildly interesting to note that new
foreclosures, as measured by mortgage default notices, have slowed
Submitted by Rich Toscano on February 9, 2010 - 8:01pm
The data rodeo will be out shortly, my friends. In the meantime I just put a price chart for January up at voiceofsandiego.org.
Submitted by Rich Toscano on January 29, 2010 - 12:51pm
Earlier this week, Kelly Bennett gave us the lowdown on the Case-Shiller home price data for November. I'm going to just add a couple of things.
First, I have updated the requisite post-peak chart...
Submitted by Rich Toscano on January 23, 2010 - 4:03pm
Recent months have seen a fairly steady improvement in the year-over-year rate of job losses for San Diego County. That annual rate of change was still firmly negative -- just less so than it had been previously.
Submitted by Rich Toscano on January 17, 2010 - 10:05pm
Well, I thought the old "Shambling Toward Affordability" title for this series of articles was a bit pithier but it just doesn't quite work now that home prices have been rising for the better part of a year. In any case, regardless of the what we want to call it, it's time to check in on San Diego housing valuations as of year-end 2009.
The 2009 home price rally reversed the direction of the shamble, but it didn't really change the overall picture, which is that San Diego home prices (in aggregate, of course) are still at middling levels of valuation.
Here's the price to per capita income ratio:
Submitted by Rich Toscano on January 10, 2010 - 5:45pm
The San Diego housing market managed to squeek out another gain in
the median price per square foot as 2009 drew to a close:
Submitted by Rich Toscano on January 2, 2010 - 3:09pm
It feels like I've been writing about "shadow inventory" -- homes
that are in foreclosure but haven't hit the market yet --
forever. Yet no flood of foreclosures has yet inundated the
market, and as a matter of fact, inventory has been quite scarce
lately. Is there anything to this shadow inventory concept?
As Kelly Bennett documented in a recent blog entry, the answer is yes. Kelly noted as of Tuesday, there were 19,453 San Diego homes that were in foreclosure but that were not yet listed for sale. That, my friends, is your shadow inventory.
For purely illustrative purposes, let's try to understand what the
effect would be if all these homes in foreclosure were to suddenly hit
Submitted by Rich Toscano on December 29, 2009 - 9:55pm
The latest release of the Case-Shiller home price index showed that San Diego's home price rally continued into October.
As it did last month, the high-priced tier once again put in the weakest showing -- an increase of .2 percent for the month compared to a 1.8 percent increase in the low-priced tier. The middle tier rose by .5 percent and the aggregate index by .4 percent.
Submitted by Rich Toscano on December 24, 2009 - 4:04pm
It wouldn't be a proper Christmas without a little holiday cheer from legendary housing bubble analyst Ramsey Su. So pour yourself a couple buckets of egg nog and read on...
Submitted by Rich Toscano on December 23, 2009 - 4:34pm
I wrote Monday about the increase in employment at San Diego businesses between October and November. I also discussed how the year-over-year change in payroll employment, while still firmly negative, had become steadily less so in recent months.
Today we'll look at the other job survey I've been writing about of
Submitted by Rich Toscano on December 21, 2009 - 9:29pm
Employment at San Diego businesses dropped on a year-over-year
Submitted by Rich Toscano on December 15, 2009 - 5:49pm
November saw the 7-month rally in San Diego home prices, as measured by the median price per square foot, come to an end:
Submitted by Rich Toscano on December 14, 2009 - 3:03pm
Last month I wrote about some mixed signals in the data from two different job surveys. While the rate of job loss at San Diego companies was improving, the rate of loss among San Diego's residents -- regardless of where they are employed -- was hitting new highs. The graph accompanying this article shows that this gap widened further in October.
I asked local economist Kelly Cunningham what he thought of the
disparities between the two job surveys since the recession
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