San Diego Housing Market News and Analysis
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I started this website in mid-2004 to chronicle San Diego’s spectacular housing bubble. The purpose of the site remains, as ever, to provide objective and evidence-based analysis of the San Diego housing market. A quick guide to the site follows:
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Submitted by Rich Toscano on March 29, 2006 - 6:03pm
You may recall that at the end of 2005, the OCC and friends released a proposed set of rather stringent lending guidelines. (See Is This the End of E-Z Credit? for a summary). The publication in question did not put guidelines into place, but rather explained the guidelines being discussed and requested comments from the banking community.
The draft rules didn't seem to scare anyone straight. Some lenders tightened up, but that seemed as much a symptom of credit conditions as anything. Meanwhile, in a desperate bid for more market share, some lenders have gotten even more risky since the document's original publication.
Submitted by Rich Toscano on March 26, 2006 - 9:24pm
This article will address recent mortgage rate movements along with important policy developments by the world's central banks. Executive summary: the credit market sure seems hell-bent on preventing a meaningful spring rally.
Submitted by Rich Toscano on March 21, 2006 - 9:07pm
Check out the graph at the bottom of this Real Estate Journal article on adjustable rate mortgages. It ends up that many borrowers (nationwide, but if anything I imagine that SoCal is worse) aren't even aware of key facts about their ARMs, such as the cap on individual or overall rate increases, how rate resets are calculated, and more. Pretty amazing.
I imagine that many of these folks never bothered to learn the facts about their resets because they figured they'd sell or refi (for huge profit, or course) before the resets ever took place. Given flat home prices and rising rates, however, that no longer seems like such a great plan.
Submitted by Rich Toscano on March 20, 2006 - 10:33am
In the OC Register, Jonathan Lansner connects the dots about housing and Orange County's economy. In discussing a burgeoning slowdown in OC (corroborated by slowing profits by businesses and increased skipped payments by consumers), Lansner notes:
Yes, exactly. The press is slowly but surely coming around to the idea that the housing bubble's enormous (but temporary!) stimulative effect on the economy is an issue of great import.
Submitted by Rich Toscano on March 15, 2006 - 7:03pm
This week is kind of a mess, so I'm going to have to make do with a "drive-by posting," in which I simply point to someone else's content.
Today's someone-else is Barry Ritholtz of The Big Picture, a financial blog of which I am quite fond. And the content is his recent post on the impending wave of mortgage resets in 2006 and 2007: $2 trillion dollars worth of mortgages, to be exact, or about 1/4 of all mortgages.Many borrowers in this category still have plenty of equity.
Submitted by Rich Toscano on March 13, 2006 - 11:07pm
The LA Times is running an article on the wave of condo/hotels, which appear to be bubble's latest foray into absurdity. Why buy an overpriced condo, when you could buy an overpriced condo that you only get to live in for one month per year?
As an aside, lest you start to think that San Diego is overcome by doom and gloom, I give you a potential buyer at the Hard Rock Hotel:
Submitted by Rich Toscano on March 11, 2006 - 7:26pm
A speech on housing by the Fed's William Poole made the rounds this week. I thought I'd link to it because it clearly illustrates a point that I think is crucial to always keep in mind: that the folks at the Federal Reserve are politicians first and economists second.
Let's jump right in with this line from his speech:
Submitted by Rich Toscano on March 8, 2006 - 10:14am
Folks in the UTC area (fondly called "Condo Hell" by inhabitants--I know because I used to be one) may be interested in today's Voice of San Diego piece on the University City housing market. This area has apparently sat out the latter part of the boom, with prices pretty stagnant since late 2003. The zip code winners/losers list I recently put together shows the UTC area as having a 3% median price increase over the past year... positive, at least, but not enough to cover the cost of selling.
Submitted by Rich Toscano on March 3, 2006 - 9:36pm
This article will examine trends in San Diego home price levels, breadth, sales volume, and inventory in order to determine where the undercurrents are taking the market. Additionally we will take a look at a warning light that has started to flash for the local economy.
Submitted by Rich Toscano on March 1, 2006 - 5:30pm
A reader forwarded me a hilarious Craigslist posting. This is from, of all places, the "casual encounters" section:
Hmmm... sounds pretty good so far. But read on...
Submitted by Rich Toscano on February 28, 2006 - 11:50pm
Will Carless at the Voice of San Diego writes about January's steep home sale decline. While the January year-over-year decline was particularly dramatic, the trend towards shrinking sale volume has been firmly entrenched for months. And, complete lack of concern on the part of the interviewees notwithstanding, long-term trends in declining San Diego sales volume have usually lead to declining home prices in the past.
I will examine the latest housing market data in great detail in the next Monthly Housing Report, which I hope to release tomorrow.
Submitted by Rich Toscano on February 27, 2006 - 10:13am
Thanks to a reader who pointed me at a Business Week article called Jitters on the Homefront (warning: this is BW subscriber access only). The article interviews famed housing bear Robert Shiller along with Countrywide CEO Angelo Mozilo and KB Homes CEO Bruce Karatz. Shiller's thoughts are no surprise, but I was pretty shocked by the bearishness of the two CEOs, especially Mozilo. Here is a brief excerpt; emphasis is mine:
Submitted by Rich Toscano on February 24, 2006 - 7:20pm
A reader sent the following article in last weekend. This has been mocked elsewhere, but I couldn't resist taking my own shots, as this is without doubt the most inept attempt at real estate cheerleading that I've seen to date:
Submitted by Rich Toscano on February 20, 2006 - 9:29am
Rates are on the rise again, Bernanke has given us some hints as to what's in store for his first few months, and two US Senators threaten to inadvertently burst the housing bubble in March. The various goings-on in the credit markets, and their likely effect on San Diego housing, are discussed below.
Submitted by Rich Toscano on February 15, 2006 - 10:25pm
We continue with Dark Matter Week, in which I outsource all content writing and then pat myself on the back for having so much intellectual capital (or something like that).
Today's outsourced content comes from an Econo-Almanac reader who is an appraiser here in San Diego. He recently sent me a note indicating how he thought things would play out for San Diego. I thought he made several interesting points so I got his permission to share it:
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