San Diego Housing Market News and Analysis
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I started this website in mid-2004 to chronicle San Diego’s spectacular housing bubble. The purpose of the site remains, as ever, to provide objective and evidence-based analysis of the San Diego housing market. A quick guide to the site follows:
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Submitted by Rich Toscano on January 13, 2009 - 1:22pm
As discussed in previous installments, a recent change to California state law inserted an extra 30-day waiting period at the beginning of the foreclosure process. Sure enough, mortgage defaults plummeted when the law went into effect. But a couple of months came and went without a commensurate rise -- was something else at work?
Submitted by Rich Toscano on January 10, 2009 - 4:26pm
The size-adjusted median price was down again last month for both property types, with a decline of 2.6% for single family homes and 7.8% for condos. The condo median price per square foot has now fallen over 50% from the September 2005 peak, forcing me to extend the Y axis downward in the chart below:
Submitted by Rich Toscano on January 6, 2009 - 5:07pm
I will get a data rodeo going in the next couple of days, but in the meantime here's a chart of size-adjusted median resale prices for December, with accompanying writeup to be found at voiceofsandiego.org:
Submitted by Rich Toscano on January 2, 2009 - 5:45pm
As I noted a couple weeks back, the Federal Reserve will be conjuring money out of thin air to buy "large quantities" (their words) of mortgage-backed securities. The mere anticipation of this flood of freshly-printed cash into the mortgage market has been enough to increase the demand for mortgages and thus lower rates.
Submitted by Rich Toscano on December 30, 2008 - 5:37pm
The thing that jumped out at me was that for the first time during this bust, the highest-priced of the three Case Shiller price tiers experienced a greater monthly decline than either of the other two.
The high-priced tier fell 2.9 percent between September and October, easily beating the 1.8 percent drop in the middle tier and just edging out the 2.8 percent drop in the low-priced tier. Until this month, the low tier had almost always declined the most of the three with the middle tier falling the second hardest. The accompanying graph shows that the high tier has been the most resilient of the three.
Submitted by Rich Toscano on December 27, 2008 - 4:33pm
The California Department of Finance recently released a new estimate of San Diego County's population growth. According to the DOF, San Diego's population grew by 46,634 people in the year to July 2008. This 1.5 percent increase represents the fastest annual percent growth since 2003.
Submitted by Rich Toscano on December 22, 2008 - 11:41pm
According to the latest EDD estimates, San Diego's employment situation deteriorated noticeably in November. The retail industry took the worst of it, turning in a year-over-year decline of 6,400 jobs or or 4.2 percent.
Submitted by Rich Toscano on December 19, 2008 - 10:20am
On Tuesday, Fed Chairman Bernanke announced that the Fed was for the first time in history cutting its target funds rate to 0 percent (a range of 0 to .25 percent, to be exact, but it's close enough). Additionally, the Fed will shunt "large quantities" of money directly into the mortgage market. They will also consider directly buying long-term U.S. Treasury bonds, thus funding the government's activities and putting downward pressure on long-term rates. Finally, they are creating a new lending program to "facilitate the extension of credit to households and small businesses." I'm not sure what that means but I'm pretty certain that it entails the Fed handing out yet more money.
They certainly are spreading it around. One might wonder where all this money is going to come from. Chairman Bernanke left that part out of his statement, but the answer is that the money will largely be created out of thin air.
Submitted by Rich Toscano on December 14, 2008 - 9:48pm
Readers may recall that the number of San Diego homes entering the foreclosure process plummeted in September. This drop was coincident with a new state law mandating an extra 30 days before foreclosure could be initiated.
Yet 30 days have come and gone a couple times over and foreclosures have not started back up again. It seems that there is something else causing a downshift in in foreclosure activity. The manifold bailout attempts would be my guess.
The question is whether the assorted bailouts have merely caused a temporary slowdown in foreclosure processing or whether they are actually inducing troubled mortgages to be worked out in a sustainable manner. I don't know the answer to that question, but I suspect that it's a little bit of both for the time being.
(written for voiceofsandiego.org)
Submitted by Rich Toscano on December 7, 2008 - 9:03pm
The size-adjusted condo median rebounded a bit from October's freefall, but this month it was single family homes' turn to get whacked. The single family median price per square foot was down a gruesome 6.1% between October and November:
Submitted by Rich Toscano on December 2, 2008 - 10:23pm
The National Bureau of Economic Research, the official arbiters of whether or not the United States is in a recession, finally called it yesterday. That's not terribly newsworthy considering that everyone knew we were in a recession already.
What's interesting is that they designated the official recession start date as December 2007, a full year ago. This means that (assuming that the recession didn't end months ago, which seems pretty safe) this is the longest recession since the 16-month long downturn beginning in July 1981.
Now that we have a start date, we can compare unemployment trends during the current recession to those of recessions past.
Submitted by Rich Toscano on November 28, 2008 - 12:58pm
Kelly Bennett has written extensively on the latest release of the Case-Shiller home price index, so I'm just going to throw a couple extra charts into the mix. OK, and one comment (I just can't help myself).
I'll begin with the charts. First, here is a table showing the last time the Case-Shiller index value for each price tier was lower than September's level. The right-hand column is the same thing but with prices adjusted to remove the effects of inflation.
Submitted by Rich Toscano on November 26, 2008 - 6:58pm
The following is a typically cheery email sent by FOP (Friend Of Piggington), occasional guest poster, dim sum comrade at arms, and foreclosure guru Ramsey Su. Ramsey's previous guest commentary can be found by poking around here.
If you only have time to look at one set of data to figure out the status of the real estate market, there is no doubt that I would choose the monthly Hope Now reports.
Unfortunately, this is the official press release which grossly distorts the valuable data and timely data Hope Now collects: http://www.hopenow.com/upload/press_rele...
The meat is here: http://www.hopenow.com/upload/data/files...
Here is an example of how valuable this data is. I call this the PUF indicator – PENT UP FORECLOSURES.
Submitted by Rich Toscano on November 24, 2008 - 6:32pm
Over at voiceofsandiego.org I put up an article about the October employment figures with the typical chart plus a comparison with the 1990s recession. For the chart-happy, additional charts can be found below.
This one is the same as the chart at Voice except in percent terms instead of job terms.
Submitted by Rich Toscano on November 21, 2008 - 9:27am
The site is undergoing a migration to a new server and will be in "read only" mode while the process is underway to ensure no data is lost. The site may at some point go down altogether as I use the opportunity to make some software upgrades. Thanks for your patience.
Update: OK, we're back online... details after the jump for those interested.
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