San Diego Housing Market News and Analysis
~Welcome to the Econo-Almanac~
I started this website in mid-2004 to chronicle San Diego’s spectacular housing bubble. The purpose of the site remains, as ever, to provide objective and evidence-based analysis of the San Diego housing market. A quick guide to the site follows:
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Submitted by Rich Toscano on October 12, 2014 - 4:17pm
Here's the big picture -- not a lot of movement last month:
Drilling down to some individual graphs, the price per square foot continued in its meandering ways:
Submitted by Rich Toscano on September 17, 2014 - 1:03pm
Here it is in a nutshell:
Charts and some thoughts below...
Submitted by Rich Toscano on August 10, 2014 - 1:35pm
I think we can agree that the typical Econo-Almanac reader is both unusually attractive, and a busy go-getter with places to be and things to do. Things besides reading a real estate blog. It is for you Coffee Achievers1 that I present this convenient new2 table summarizing the month's statistics:
1 Youths, please see this important educational video.
2 It is unclear to me why I didn't start doing this like 8 years ago or something.
Submitted by Rich Toscano on July 16, 2014 - 6:34pm
Well now... the median price per square foot for single family homes (which is the best real-ish time price indicator) surged by 3.3% last month:
Submitted by Rich Toscano on June 15, 2014 - 4:50pm
San Diego's median price per square foot eked out a small gain in May, with the single family home median rising .3% from April.
Submitted by Rich Toscano on May 25, 2014 - 5:39pm
Let's do a quick check-in on San Diego housing valuations:
Submitted by Rich Toscano on May 18, 2014 - 6:37pm
It was a month of yet more gains for home prices, per the median price per square foot, with condos going particularly nuts. That latter bit is not very analytically important, as the condo price/sqft can be very volatile. But it does make for an exciting looking chart:
Submitted by Rich Toscano on April 14, 2014 - 6:59pm
Prices edged up again last month:
Submitted by Rich Toscano on March 17, 2014 - 8:11am
The housing market was pretty firm again in February. The median price per square foot nudged upward for the month:
Submitted by Rich Toscano on March 6, 2014 - 2:00pm
The Case-Shiller home price index is not as timely as the monthly median price data, but has a couple advantages over the latter. First, because the CS index is calculated by comparing repeat sales of the same homes, it gives a more accurate read on actual home price changes (more than you ever wanted to know on this topic can be found here). Second, the Case-Shiller data additionally breaks down price changes for low-, mid-, and high-priced homes, which allows us to observe what prices are doing in each of those segments of the housing market.
So, we know that 2013's price surge was most beneficial to lower-priced homes, which were up 22 percent for the year. Mid-priced homes were up 19 percent and the most expensive tier was up "only" 16 percent. The overall index was up 18 percent for the year. (Note: the price tiers are calculated simply by separating the home sales into thirds: the high-priced tier is comprised of the most expensive one-third of homes sold during the measurement period, and so on.)
This is the same pattern we've seen since the 2009 home price trough: from their respective lows through the end of 2013, the cheapest one-third of homes were up 51 percent, versus 30 percent for the middle tier, 23 percent for the expensive one, and 34 percent for the overall index. (Some historical context for those changes is found below). Most of that price increase -- and in the case of the middle and high tiers, all of it -- has taken place since 2012.
This graph of the different tiers since the 2009 price low shows that the relative strength of the cheaper homes continued right through to the end of the year:
(continue reading at voiceofsandiego.org)
Submitted by Rich Toscano on February 15, 2014 - 4:38pm
So much for that price pullback. The median price per square foot for single family homes rose in January, just hitting a new post-crash high:
Submitted by Rich Toscano on February 2, 2014 - 10:54am
I must admit, I considered dispensing with the "Shambling Towards Affordability" title for these valuation updates, but in the end I decided that tradition must be maintained. Anyway, other than the fact that the housing market is neither "shambling" nor moving "towards affordability," it's a perfect fit.
One thing I did change was to combine my two previous valuation indicators, home-prices-to-incomes and home-prices-to-rents, into a single metric. I thought this would make it simpler to get a single big-picture view on home valuations, and it makes the chart maintenance a little easier on me as well. The indicator is constructed simply by dividing the Case-Shiller San Diego home price index by an equally weighted average of San Diego rents and per capita incomes, and normalizing the whole deal so that January 2000 equals a value of 100 (just like the CS index).
OK, enough background... let's have a look:
Submitted by Rich Toscano on January 31, 2014 - 10:31am
Hey everyone, I will be chatting with Jim Klinge on some sort of Google Hangout thing, as described here:
Pop over to Jim's blog on Monday at 8PM to watch.
And btw, I PROMISE I will get the valuation charts updated this weekend, so perhaps that will be a topic of discussion.
Submitted by Rich Toscano on January 19, 2014 - 5:41pm
Hi all - here are some year-over-year stats showing how what the market did for the year 2013...
Submitted by Rich Toscano on December 29, 2013 - 7:24pm
Hello there... the usual roundup of housing charts can be found below. Prices have declined a bit in recent months, in a somewhat more noticeable manner than the usual year-end lull -- but considering the magnitude of the early-2013 price increase and the spike in rates midway through the year, this is perhaps understandable. Months of inventory have increased back to the levels that prevailed for most of 2012; this is a big change in percent terms but supply still remains scarce, historically speaking.
I hope everyone has a fantastic 2014!
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|* Rich Toscano is a registered representative of and offers securities and investment advisory services through Girard Securities, Inc., a registered Broker/Dealer, Registered Investment Advisor, and member FINRA/SIPC. Pacific Capital Associates is not a subsidiary or affiliate of Girard Securities. The views and opinions expressed on this site are not those of Pacific Capital Associates or Girard Securities, Inc. The information on this site should not be construed as investment advice.|