San Diego County NOD, NOT back on trend for April

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Submitted by HereWeGo on May 7, 2008 - 5:38pm

1512 NOT
3601 NOD

This isn't a "bottom," if anything, it's a plateau. For all interested sellers, remember, when the theater actually is on fire, it's those who rush to the exits the quickest who are the least likely to get burned.

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My hypothesis is this:
Submitted by Baron von Rothschild on May 7, 2008 - 7:19pm.

My hypothesis is this: people with school age kids who intend to walk away will time the foreclosure for summer. That gives the kids time to finish this school year, and for the family to move before the next. I'm not sure if it's a big enough phenomenon to be apparent in the statistics, but I know that's what I would do if I were walking away for strategic financial reasons (which I'm not--I'm a renter waiting out the bust).

Yup, we're on track for
Submitted by davelj on May 8, 2008 - 2:39pm.

Yup, we're on track for between 15,000 and 20,000 trustee deeds in San Diego County this year, thereby roughly tripling (!) the 1990's high of 5,994 set in 1996. Let's see... 15,000 to 20,000 trustee deeds... compared to maybe 20,000 - 25,000 total sales in the county for 2008... oh my... that's gonna leave a mark.

Right. So when does the meme
Submitted by HereWeGo on May 8, 2008 - 3:00pm.

Right.

So when does the meme emerge that the sensible thing to do is to sell your equity positive residence and buy an REO? Since the REO values are crushed, a 20% loss in real terms on the cheaper REO will be much less than a 20% loss on your current residence. If that idea were to take hold, hoo boy, would things ever get interesting.

I realize schools are an issue, here, but not everyone is bound by their school district.

HWG, Most of the NOT's are
Submitted by DWCAP on May 8, 2008 - 3:22pm.

HWG,
Most of the NOT's are in the lower end areas. The few in the really desirable areas get pickup up rather quick. Now when the option ARMS start hitting, all bets are off. Maybe your hypothesis will turn out correct, which could be an even better thing for SD as large numbers of well taken care of entry level houses open up with reasonable prices. That is what SD needs more than anything to get a health market again. Unfornatually the FED and the US congress are trying to rig the rules. Hopefully if this crap gets too bad the 50% of America that doesnt support it will get out those pitchforks someone else on here talked about.

sd foreclosure chart
Submitted by ocrenter on May 9, 2008 - 7:14am.

sd foreclosure chart

ocrenter, thanks for the
Submitted by La Jolla Renter on May 9, 2008 - 7:28am.

ocrenter, thanks for the chart.

It looks like 40% chance that if someone gets a NOD they end up as a trustee sale?

Anyone know if this is the same percentage as in the high end? It could give us a look into the future of the affluent zips.

FYI, I have a business associate that has been delaying the courthouse transfer for 8 months. 8 months rent free. Wonder how many more homeowners would walk away if they knew they could pull that off.

It's interesting that the
Submitted by HereWeGo on May 9, 2008 - 9:25am.

It's interesting that the NOT chart has similar movements month-to-month as the NOD chart. I thought they would be offset by 90 days or so.

I'm not sure what to make of that.