Mr Mortgage...May CA Home Sales Report -Conditions Worsening

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Submitted by Huckleberry on June 23, 2008 - 12:39pm

Another new video.

Once again, it appears the number aren't getting any better...

http://youtube.com/watch?v=nlmMQOpG14o

Submitted by peterb on June 23, 2008 - 1:49pm.

Does anyone out there know about the legally required time a lender has to complete forclosure processes after an NOD has been sent? Or is there any time limit? It seems like NOD's are comming in big numbers, but REO's are seriously lagging. I've heard rumors that lenders are letting mortgage's go more than a year in arrears in order to avoid putting the property on to their books. Is there any GAAP rules here? Or can a lender have a non-performing loan on the books indefinately?

Submitted by EconProf on June 23, 2008 - 6:56pm.

This You Tube site for Mr. Mortgage would be a good place to send your friends and relatives who doubt your housing-bearish position. A lot of people too lazy to read the research could watch an 8 minute segment by Mr. Mortgage and become believers.

Submitted by SD Realtor on June 23, 2008 - 10:30pm.

There is not prescribed maximum time by law. I do know for a fact that many distressed properties have the trustee sale date delayed (in some cases many times over) if there is a short sale being considered.

Submitted by temeculaguy on June 23, 2008 - 10:50pm.

SD, I know there has always been conspiracy theories about phantom inventory and I am not one of those who believe the banks are in collusion, but I am so confused lately. I track the trustee sales, in my zip code there will be 50 this week actually going back to the bank and available to be listed the next day. For three months there has been 25-50 a week, yet about 10-20 get listed. These aren't short sale delays or reworks, they are over and done with, sitting vacant, I'm stalking a few right now. Is it just that their REO people are getting crushed right now with work, they can't hire some of the unemployed former mortgage brokers? I know of many properties that went back to the bank in May and are still sitting, unlisted, what kind of a plan is that? "let's leave it until the spring bounce is over and we can lose another 20%." Or maybe the lawn isn't dead enough for them. If this is how they do business then they deserve to be out of business. It's frustrating as hell. It took them 9 months to get it back and they just let it sit, mindboggling. And then when they do list it, they pick some realtor from L.A. who barely speaks english, doesn't know jack about the house or area, quotes comps from miles away, posts a single blurry picture of the outside, it happens all the time, it's killing me.

Submitted by Veritas on June 23, 2008 - 10:58pm.

Blame it on the Illuminati. What else explains it?

Submitted by stpiermj on June 24, 2008 - 9:58am.

Oil Speculation and Mortgage backed assets. I wonder sometimes if this Fed swap of mortgage backed assets (which are worthless), is contributing to the "speculation" by investment firms in the oil market. Scary thought what would happen if that was occuring and the oil bubble pops and all those portfolios go to crap (Depressing,oop, I mean DEPRESSION). We would be really broke in less than 2 months if the Fed were to continue it's free lunch program.

My guess is that moving to the "foreclosure" step reduces what the speculators can speculate with... (if of course this is what is happening). I'm pretty much clueless on this, but the way things are going on WallStreet and the lack of ethics and high values (which we desparetly need to reverse), I would believe just about anything is possible (even a crash of the US Dollar).

Submitted by cashflow on June 24, 2008 - 12:07pm.

Again interesting numbers. I like the overall CA stats cause the last few months all I've heard about was people buying homes around here (RB, RP, CV, and Poway area) So looking at the big picture you get a better sense of what's going on.

Submitted by peterb on June 24, 2008 - 12:14pm.

If the lenders are truely "swamped" and that's the main reason that REO's are not getting listed quickly, then maybe a more accurate way to calculate the "shadow inventory" that's out there is to take Mr. Mortgage's guess that roughly 80% of all NOD's will not get cured and thus end up as REO's...given that these properties are probably upside down and wont sell on the court house steps. I guess many could also go into a short sale during the foreclosure process as well, but he may be including that as being "cured".
If NOD's must be recorded, at least it's a starting point with some measure of accuracy. But, I guess the lender could also delay sending out an NOD as well.

Submitted by jonnycsd on June 24, 2008 - 11:05pm.

Not a complete answer, but may be a piece of the puzzle of why they choose to sit on empty homes.

" . . . in the case of a bad mortgage, the bank will eventually take the house back and have to wait to resell it before a loss is recognized."

If this is what is looks like, there are a bunch of investors / banks / regulators / politicians who have no idea just how much money has been lost.

http://www.housingwire.com/2008/06/19/th...

Submitted by MountainLife on June 25, 2008 - 9:27am.

It seems that there are a tremendous amount of vacant houses already back to the bank that haven't been listed. Does anyone know if you can contact the bank and buy a house before it gets listed?

Submitted by sddreaming on June 25, 2008 - 9:47am.

I just responded on the For Temeculaguy post with basically the same question. I subscribe to ForeClosureRadar.com and so the loan information, lender name and address, and trustee name and address are easy enough to get to. I'm wondering if it's worth going directly to the lender without waiting for a MLS listing. There's an amazing number of houses out there, especially in Temecula with NOTs.

Submitted by peterb on June 25, 2008 - 11:10am.

Well, if in fact the loss is not recognized financially, until the house is actually sold by the lender....then that's probably got a lot to do with the lag in REO's getting listed. If the lender is facing a possible collapse of their business if all the REO's were to hit the market too quickly, then it stands to reason that they will try to parse them out over as long a period of time as possible. At least this way they get a shot at surviving sometime into the future. In other words, this is a survival tactic.

And if this is the prime reason for them waiting to list or foreclose, then contacting them directly to buy a house probably wont sway them to sell it to you.

Submitted by Casca on June 26, 2008 - 12:09am.

Then again, it could be pure human short term stupidity. These ARE the same folks who made these loans.