What's the deal on unlisted bank inventory that he focuses on. He implies that the banks are increasingly 'hoarding' properties rather than putting them on the market. Did I read that right?
Submitted by dharmagirl on May 13, 2008 - 11:07pm.
I heard somewhere, a while ago, that banks did not want to flood the MLS with available inventory all at once in an attempt to control prices. They are supposedly "parceling" them out.
Dont know if it's true or not.
However, I've seen homes on foreclosureradar.com that show up as bank-owned properties and are NOT on the MLS.
I had posted this comment on the April Foreclosure Data thread, but it seemed appropriate here. I have suspected the "shadow" REO inventory for some time, based on a lot of driving around neighborhoods of interest and way too much time looking at the MLS.
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I've been wondering where all the bank owned inventory is. If I go to www.realtytrac.com and put in the zip codes for some of the harder hit areas, there seems to be more bank owned properties out there than total inventory listed on the MLS. Anyone else notice this? Take a look at Spring Valley or Encanto. This assumed "hidden" inventory is the primary reason I think the better deals are still a ways off.
I have also noticed while driving around that there are a lot of bank owned properties not listed on the MLS. I take that to mean banks are trying to disguise the true number of foreclosures. It could also mean the banks are quick to put up a sign, but slow to list on the MLS.
If I go to www.realtytrac.com and put in the zip codes for some of the harder hit areas, there seems to be more bank owned properties out there than total inventory listed on the MLS.
www.realtytrac.com does not limit results to the zip code you enter. If you type in 91977, it will show you every REO in Spring Valley, Bonita, Lemon Grove, and La Mesa. If you type in 92014 (Del Mar), it will show you REOs from Solana Beach and Mira Mesa.
Total El Cajon MLS (according to ziprealty): 954
Total El Cajon REO and Auction (realtytrac): 764
If you include NODs (realtytrac): 1263
If you use the map search function on realtytrac to zoom out and recenter so only what appear to be San Diego county is included (Poway is north limit, Alpine is east limit):
REO and Auction properties: ~ 13,300
Including NODs: ~ 28,500
It looks to me like there are several months of inventory at current sales rates if you only include the REOs. Am I missing something?
For some reason I can't get foreclosureradar.com search function to work right now but it lists properties by zipcode. You should easily be able to crosscheck those numbers against the MLS.
It would be interesting to track REO/Auction and NODs vs MLS for different zip codes. I think that for Spring Valley and Encanto it is possible the total MLS inventory is about the same as REO and Auction inventory. The distressed and "wish I could sell" inventory has to be just staggering.
"Wish I could sell" and "If I can sell" is starting to be a phrase I'm hearing at work.
Maybe lenders are holding off on foreclosures because Barney Frank threatened them (with regulation?? Ack!) if they didn't "pause" foreclosures:
House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank (D-MA) waved a bit of a stick in the face of loan servicers, saying that "Servicers should put a pause in some foreclosures until they can wait to see exact details of this as it moves forward. If after this we continue to get very little participation by services, I can guarantee you that the servicer industry will look very different a year from now than they do today. If after everything we do in this cooperative way falls short, then you are going to see legislation that puts some very real restrictions on the role of servicers and give many more rights to the borrowers."
He's good people. He presents good data with hard to find data on bank loan standards and sometimes inventory. He sure puts his money where his mouth is when it comes to his bearish investment thesis. That guy's got ballz!
I can only relate my experience on a particular property that caught my eye. Got a NOD in October 2007. Been for sale since last summer for a ridiculous price. 1844 Law in PB. Anyhoo, it was scheduled to go to foreclosure earlier this month I believe. Over 6 months to get this baby to NTS. It has not been relisted yet. You would think they'd get on the ball. The place is in pristine condition. It amazes me how they drag their feet.
Now this is just one particular property. How many more are there out there like this?
I've heard of him, seen many of his You Tube videos. I like the guy and glad he provided the April numbers to put that WSJ article in its place.
What's the deal on unlisted bank inventory that he focuses on. He implies that the banks are increasingly 'hoarding' properties rather than putting them on the market. Did I read that right?
yep
yep
I heard somewhere, a while ago, that banks did not want to flood the MLS with available inventory all at once in an attempt to control prices. They are supposedly "parceling" them out.
Dont know if it's true or not.
However, I've seen homes on foreclosureradar.com that show up as bank-owned properties and are NOT on the MLS.
So, who knows?
I had posted this comment on the April Foreclosure Data thread, but it seemed appropriate here. I have suspected the "shadow" REO inventory for some time, based on a lot of driving around neighborhoods of interest and way too much time looking at the MLS.
-------------
I've been wondering where all the bank owned inventory is. If I go to www.realtytrac.com and put in the zip codes for some of the harder hit areas, there seems to be more bank owned properties out there than total inventory listed on the MLS. Anyone else notice this? Take a look at Spring Valley or Encanto. This assumed "hidden" inventory is the primary reason I think the better deals are still a ways off.
I have also noticed while driving around that there are a lot of bank owned properties not listed on the MLS. I take that to mean banks are trying to disguise the true number of foreclosures. It could also mean the banks are quick to put up a sign, but slow to list on the MLS.
If I go to www.realtytrac.com and put in the zip codes for some of the harder hit areas, there seems to be more bank owned properties out there than total inventory listed on the MLS.
www.realtytrac.com does not limit results to the zip code you enter. If you type in 91977, it will show you every REO in Spring Valley, Bonita, Lemon Grove, and La Mesa. If you type in 92014 (Del Mar), it will show you REOs from Solana Beach and Mira Mesa.
Total El Cajon MLS (according to ziprealty): 954
Total El Cajon REO and Auction (realtytrac): 764
If you include NODs (realtytrac): 1263
If you use the map search function on realtytrac to zoom out and recenter so only what appear to be San Diego county is included (Poway is north limit, Alpine is east limit):
REO and Auction properties: ~ 13,300
Including NODs: ~ 28,500
It looks to me like there are several months of inventory at current sales rates if you only include the REOs. Am I missing something?
For some reason I can't get foreclosureradar.com search function to work right now but it lists properties by zipcode. You should easily be able to crosscheck those numbers against the MLS.
It would be interesting to track REO/Auction and NODs vs MLS for different zip codes. I think that for Spring Valley and Encanto it is possible the total MLS inventory is about the same as REO and Auction inventory. The distressed and "wish I could sell" inventory has to be just staggering.
"Wish I could sell" and "If I can sell" is starting to be a phrase I'm hearing at work.
Maybe lenders are holding off on foreclosures because Barney Frank threatened them (with regulation?? Ack!) if they didn't "pause" foreclosures:
House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank (D-MA) waved a bit of a stick in the face of loan servicers, saying that "Servicers should put a pause in some foreclosures until they can wait to see exact details of this as it moves forward. If after this we continue to get very little participation by services, I can guarantee you that the servicer industry will look very different a year from now than they do today. If after everything we do in this cooperative way falls short, then you are going to see legislation that puts some very real restrictions on the role of servicers and give many more rights to the borrowers."
http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/522008_...
He's good people. He presents good data with hard to find data on bank loan standards and sometimes inventory. He sure puts his money where his mouth is when it comes to his bearish investment thesis. That guy's got ballz!
I can only relate my experience on a particular property that caught my eye. Got a NOD in October 2007. Been for sale since last summer for a ridiculous price. 1844 Law in PB. Anyhoo, it was scheduled to go to foreclosure earlier this month I believe. Over 6 months to get this baby to NTS. It has not been relisted yet. You would think they'd get on the ball. The place is in pristine condition. It amazes me how they drag their feet.
Now this is just one particular property. How many more are there out there like this?