San Diego Housing Market News and Analysis

Glad to see this post, I have been telling people in here for awhile not to listen to him and it has fallen upon deaf ears. A fund manager can be completely tracked by his returns. Opinions do not mean anything, it is how much money you make or lose acting on your views that determines if you are right or wrong.

Mish dressed Schiff down very well a week or so back. Schiff gets props for being a lone voice on MSM about the bubble. But decoupling was totally off as was his call for hyperinflation. Way wrong. And of course, his funds have done terribly.

The first rule of investment is; don't lose money!

And Schiff lost big time.

Not only was he wrong; he was 180 degrees wrong. You would have been better off buying U.S. real estate and stocks instead of his picks. As messed up as we are; the rest of the world is worse. And less diversified than us to boot.

Don't sell America short!

He still may be "right", just early.

I hope not, otherwise we are all f'ed.

I agree on "Don't sell America Short". We still have the most innovative, entrepreneurial, creative people in the world. Economically, we are in for a couple years of a rough patch, but I am certainly confident in an eventual turnaround.

Bubblesitter

I'll disagree a bit with the last post.

We have some of the most creative high tech folks out there working within the boundaries of the law. True.

We also have some of the greediest and creative SOBs out there that have played havoc on our economy.

The question is which side wins. Furthermore, this notion that more than half of our population probably doesn't understand evolution or what it means (we rank below Turkey), raises serious doubts of our future as the leading technology state out there (think that's well backed by just looking at the number of foreign PhDs we're training for India and China).

I won't sell us short, but let's limit the puffery.....

In what order is he these things,
salesman, businessman, economist,human being? To what degree of intensity, perfection ect., is he each of these things.

Unfortunately many average people just see these guys, and similar that are available at all levels ,bull or bear, as "experts" and defer to one or another of them.Much pain has come from this.

Someone very close to me has lost a lot of money at an advanced age despite the fact that I have told them so much of what was coming for the last 3-4 years, This is because, as is probably obvious I lack " expertise". Having gotten a lot of it from piggingtons didn't help!

I was actually at a meeting with this individual at their finacial advisors office a few months back.He was really on the spot but I was pretty tame due to the fact that it still really isn't much of my business. In front of God and everybody my relation said nobody could have known any of this was going to happen. Ouch!

He is still the expert... they chose to go to an uninsured annuity with an insurance company with some of what is left.I guess capital presevation is good sooner or later. I am not sure if this is a good investment but it seems uninsured and locked in doesn't sound good at this time? Well, I am a little prejudice because the same expert just lost a big portion of the nest egg of a couple of seventy year olds in private investment accounts. I'd have to bite my toungue even if I was sure it was bad deal...for lack of "expertise".

Thanks for posting this information. He can claim things changed from the time he wrote his book, but the fact he is losing money proves the point because he can adjust is investments to market conditions.

Duke: I'd like to amplify your post a little bit further, and point out the number of attorneys this country mints versus those in the science and technical professions. Hell, you had people with degrees in high order mathematics (the so-called "quants") going to work on Wall Street because that's where the money was.

We need to fix our educational system, along with our values system. The fact that we're rapidly becoming the world's worst educated, but most well armed third world nation should alarm the shit out of everyone.

Did you ever see the movie "Idiocracy"? Funny as hell and scary as hell, all at the same time.

I've come to believe that the only one you can trust with your own money is yourself.

I have spent countless hours trying to educate myself on the financial world and the best places to put my hard earned money, even going so far as getting a part-time MBA with finance concentration a few years back. I lost a bundle in the dot com collapse, and I don't want to repeat it this this debacle.

Many of the "experts" on Wall street are well versed on how to maximize their own personal gain. Many financial advisors are not worth their salt.

It is truly caveat emptor out there.

That being said, Peter Schiff has been right about alot of things and was a proverbial "canary in the coalmine" at the peak of the bubble.

Bubblesitter

He was right about a number of things and he is fun to watch. Where he goofed is failing to understand that the world is no longer a horse race, that the west, europe and asia are too intertwined now. He used Asia and europe as a hedge, hoping they would win the game as if it were like football. It is no longer a football game, it is more like cycling, where the team needs and uses each other. I've reached three sports analogies and that is the limit.

Firstly, congratulations to Bubblesitter on your calls on the "risk averse" thread. Looks like you should have done alright for yourself over the past couple of years. :)

Secondly, many housing bears were scoffed at (like Peter Schiff) when they were calling the housing market a bubble back in the 2001-2005 timeframe. IMHO, they were early **and correct.** Unlike some, I think getting your money out of a risky market that is peaking is more important than trying to extract the very last dollar during a bull run.

I've long been a deflationist, and still think we are going to see severe deflationary effects going forward. In the meantime, there are inflationary forces that are very likely to cause a currency crisis before this is all over, IMHO. IOW, there is no easy answer, and the people who make the correct calls all the way through this debacle will be very few and far between.

Peter Schiff for Senator!

I noticed the last comments posted where back in 2009. It's now 2012 and I'm considering leaving my Merrill Lynch account and investing in EuroPacific. Has anybody had a change of heart about Peter's strategy??????

Although I can see the Gov wanting to create higher inflation (say 6-8%) for the next ten or so years.
I can't see this happening without higher economic activity and higher employment/Higher wages as well.
And I could see where higher interests rates could devastate current low interest long duration bond holders.

In short, personally I don't see disaster ahead unless Europe completely collapses (which could happen).

Well OK there is one other black swan sitting out there as well, that is the Iran situation, if that turns into a war then things could get bad fast.

Has Euro pacific beat a balanced fund (e.g. VBINX) over a period of say 1-year(14.27% pa), 3-year(11.44% pa), 5-year(4.49% pa), 10-year (6.76% pa)?

Actually, I am happy with ML's performance. That's not the issue. I do not believe we are in another cycle but rather a transition and agree with Peter's outlook on dollar denominated stocks. I have been following him for years and have been waiting to make the move to EuroPacific to preserve my wealth but somehow am still hesitant. Especially after spending time on Mish's Global Economic website. Though,many of the things Mich predicted are defunct as well, i.e. Australia's interest rates going below 2.0. Also, the people complaining about losing money with Peter may have pulled out too quickly. I recall two gentlemen complaining about a stock (SO) but had they hung tight they would have recouped their losses.

Again, I was just wondering if anyone who had doubts of Peter's philosophy may have changed their tune because of what has transpired since 2009.

Best regards,
Andrius

Do you know anyone whose wealth has been "preserved" by listening to Peter Schiff?

Sure he said buy gold and that seems to be working out. But he also asked to buy & sell many other things which didn't work out.

I don't, but the BIG crash hasn't happened yet. If there was no threat to our economy I wouldn't even consider leaving ML, but that's not the case. I'm just looking at the evidence out there and doing my best to guess which of the options left on the table are best. One thing I know for sure is it's mathematically impossible to pay down the debt. There are other countries out there that are more stable that may be worth investing in. I agree that getting into the foreign market was a mistake in 2008 but someday it won't be and I'm trying to figure out when that day is.

The U.S.A. has been blessed with very unique geographical and resource rich assets that will ensure its place as a first world nation; no other nation has what The U.S.A has.
Really they need us a lot more than we need them. ( I would explain but it would take several hours talking about the Mississippi and other rivers, our food production capabilities, Deep water harbors, untapped resources.. it a very long story).

So anyway good luck with that.

I would NOT invest with them. My money was NOT preserved. It was lost big time by them.
And my broker was the managing director of their L.A. office.
After our money was lost he said he could not talk to us because he "has high blood pressure".
Stay far, far away.

Thanks for your informative post, disimilar.

Ohh my. That sounds scary and I'm sorry to hear about your loss. May I ask did you go with a separately managed account or a non discretionary account? Was this just recent or back in 2008/2009? Foreign stocks or gold mining? Were you in it for the long term or were you looking for short term? Were you on autopilot with EuroPacific or were you choosing the stocks you liked?

Sorry about all the questions. You don't have to answer if you don't want to. I'm just real interested.

Best,
Andrius

I invested at the perfect time - after Sept of '08. It was the absolute bottom of the market.
stocks, ipo's and gold certificates.
not a well run company.
only interested in their commissions.