San Diego Housing Bubble News and Analysis

I've seen some interesting analysis lately that thinks the rates will rise for all the bonds with durations over 2 years. I think this will raise the rate on the 30 year mortgage.

Seems we get a thread on this every couple of weeks or so. It would be interesting to go back and see who's predictions were right, and who's were way off.

I don't think anyone knows enough to make a very solid prediction about this, and I certainly wouldn't trust the consensus view you hear on MSM, but I'll venture out on a couple of points:

1) The fed will not raise rates before the end of the year. More than likely, Bernanke will be out of a job before the fed raises rates.

2) Realization that the economy is not recovering will occur this fall, and that will slow any inflation expectations. (And thus help to keep rates lower)

3) If China, India or any of the other countries that hold so many dollars are shown to be seriously dropping dollars, all bets are off, and long term interest rates go through the roof.

I don't see any progress or any come up soon. Due to this kind of fuzzy situation - sure Governament would have to undergo several measures, but while trying to save the turmoils then Fed would also be pushed back to downward greatly in all aspects (like internationally $ strength etc). One fine day or after a long battle Fed realise there is no need to keep and justify Mortgage and bailouts then quick pick in up the interest rates - drastically this would increase. Guess what!! what would be our Home prices that time - leaving this question to all on us. Until and unless some miracle occurs all future of housing is blink(especially in expensive zones) for moderate and middle class lives.

Kinda like a bunch of guys sitting around a roulette table speculating on whether the next spin will land on black or red. Some of them will be correct a few times and start thinking they have it figured out.

Too true!!!!

We weren't able (or willing) to pull Japan out of it's recession in the 90's and we won't be able to pull China out now,that's what makes a Depression-when there is no country able to pull the current biggest economy out of it's recession. I'm not saying China can't do it,they just can't count on us to help. I'm with Rich in predicting rates will go higher,but it will take a strong economy somewhere (perhaps the middle east) before it happens in my opinion.

Even a stopped clock is right twice a day.