San Diego Housing Market News and Analysis

I'm still predicting Year 2000 pricing.
There's a glut of high-end out there. This is just the beginning.

Those are some incredible homes- a whole acre of land too! Wonder how much it would cost to maintain the landscaping though...

Both great houses and both look like firmly 2001 pricing. it was a short sale and ended up selling a few hundred K below the list price. A "free open market" sale probably could have gotten a tad more. The second listing was actually the model and sold for $1.18M in 2000 so it was already landscaped and ready to go. I had a client look at it about a year ago when they were trying for $2.1M (we laughed). The $1M+ market is really tough now because there is the perception that there is no decent financing out there. Buyers look at at 8% rates and say they want 5% just like the conventional market. Of course they dont factor in that the 5% rate is gov't subsidized by a percentage or two.

correct, about 1/2 or more of the acre is dedicated openspace that you can touch

Prices dipped after 9/11. There were some good deals for about 6 months after. So I would say it is an early 2001 price or even late 2000 price.

As far as the acre lots, some of that was sales hype but the benefit is that the views are protected. Usually the sloped areas are made common areas but in this case they were included in the building lots.

I remember when Pacific Crest and the neighboring Centex development Crestview were built. Top of the line view neighborhoods with 200k landscapes the norm. Big money, exclusive, and extremely low density. It is shocking to see these type of houses firmly under 1.4M. This can't be good for the Bay Collection and Encinitas Ranch. Some of those houses sold for 2M from the builder and they are not near this prestige level.

Another factor to consider is the mello roos. While ER has 4k+ a year these houses in Pacific Crest have only $800 a year. Crestview has none. Big time bargains here IMHO.

Agreed, Big time bargains. Those are defintely million dollar homes by any reasonable measure.

P I M P

That place is awesome, if I had $1.5M I'd buy myself one of those...

I remember Jim the Realtor arguing in 2006 that the primo properties would be immune, if only you'd let him find one for you. You know, one of those unique properties that people would not want to sell ever.

Problem is it doesn't matter if you don't sell your house. Your neighbors' transactions determine the value of your house for you.

Pameliza, I have no interest in that area, but it'd be interesting to go down that street and some adjacent streets and research purchase history and loans outstanding. That would tell you how many owners have all the incentives to walk. That would also give you a good indication of stealth inventory.

Pem I recall you said ou looked around in Poway as well. My wife and I have had our eye on a few nicer ones there as well but the 800s and above are sticky still. They will come down because to me the high end is the most vulnerable. The "high end" varies with neighborhoods of course.

pemeliza,

Just a cursory look at Bella Laguna here.

I would say that #1650, #1709 and #1742 have good incentives to walk depending of their loans outstanding.

Of course, as jpinpb noted, #1717 is in distress with an NOD already. Now listed at $1.3 million. At 4520sf ($288/sf), it's a relative deal compared to #1685. I personally don't give any value to the pool at #1685.

Look up the other houses to see how many have refied and heloced out. The ones who did will be toast as wherewithal wears out.

http://www.sdlookup.com/Property_Search-...

sdrealtor, you're referring here to #1717.

Considering that they are now short-selling at $1.3 million (vs. $2.1 last year) and have already received an NOD, I would say that was a shocking reset in expectations for them.

I see that all the time. Owners think that they have plenty of equity only to discover that they have none when wherewithal finally wears out.

Had #1717 priced right last year, they could've been bailed out of trouble by an idiot buyer. Now, it's looking more likely they'll take a hit and end up with all those years of house payments "thrown away"

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-090031676-17...

Brian,
Yes I was referring to #1717. They owed alot and would have had a tough time getting out last year also. I dont know whether its as much of a shocking reset in expectations as opposed to a capitulation that they are up a creek without a paddle and need top get out at whatever the market will bear at the moment.

"My wife and I have had our eye on a few nicer ones there as well but the 800s and above are sticky still."

SD Realtor, we did look hard at Poway. Our interest was in Green Valley Highlands. There was a foreclosure up there on Orchard Gate in the 8's.

http://www.sdlookup.com/Property-5EDE58A...

We were hopeful that the foreclosure would bring down prices but it didn't have much of an effect. We were hoping to buy something up there on a nicer lot for around 750-800k but a fixer. When a fixer did come up, it was priced like a showpiece and the seller didn't want to budge. There are some other short sales in the area but overall I don't get the feeling that there is enough distress up there yet. Maybe you can find something up there in your price range if you are patient. I don't think you can go wrong with that 'hood. Being up high helps with the heat and the schools are great. I think the lower elevation parts of Green Valley have better deals but I don't think we could have handled the heat.

Hi Pem -

Yes I know of which home you speak. It seemed that things we moving downward there but that movement has pretty much stopped which stinks.

sdr - I couldn't help but chuckle a bit inside when I read that line. The words "free open market" are laughable in real estate, and is probably why you put it in quotations in the first place.

What's funny is that you see a constant flow of new listings over $1MM in Encinitas, but precious few sales in that price range. Lots of delusional sellers who think that they are sitting on gold mines keep trying to cash out.

I think the HELOC effect has been understated in many of the "high-end" areas. So many people took on lots of debt, thinking that they could "just refi" or sell their house and pay off that debt. Lots of people thought they were really rich because their neighbors were selling for ever-higher prices (to speculators with no-doc, neg-am loans), so they loaded up the debt and spent like kings and queens. It looks like reality might finally be sinking it.

I bought a distressed house in Green Valley, and I can tell you for a fact that the small changes in elevation around here don't make a real difference in temperature at all.

Also, there are jumbo loans to be had in the 5's - I know, because I got one, but you have to put 30% down to get them. Or to get a jumbo loan at all these days.

Ya got me greekfire. Exactly, I dont know what a "free open market sale" is any more. There are so many obstacles and issues in todays transactions. If that property was listed a bit higher with no short sale or bank (REO) issues to deal with it by an owner with lots of equity it probably would sell easily. Dont see those too often these days;)

"I bought a distressed house in Green Valley, and I can tell you for a fact that the small changes in elevation around here don't make a real difference in temperature at all."

Congrats on your purchase hibiscus! I guess I was referring more to the potential for breezes rather than temp. changes but I guess you have to live there to be sure. Green Valley is a great area and it would definitely be my first choice in Poway.

I ended up in Mission Hills because the right property came up there at the right time but Green Valley was very high on our list.