San Diego Housing Bubble News and Analysis

Popcorn Theory in effect. JP, little history for you, about two years ago I was constantly lamenting on the boards that all of the price slashing wasn't taking place in the heart of Temecula, it was all 20 miles North of Temecula. South Temecula was holding up, then one popped up 10 miles away from where I wanted to be, then another, then 5. Six months later, one crazy priced one popped up in my hood, then another, then five more, then fifty more. It was like microwave popcorn, and the Popcorn theory was born. It moved like a virus or a train, hence, the Pain Train Theory. A similar thing was taking place in Eastlake at the same time. Many people thought downtown, Northpark, Southpark, South Bay and East County (already started) would be the next to be affected and it is very possible that you found the first kernal that popped in that area, keep watching, it's fun. One tip, if it is the beginning of the Popcorn theory, the first to pop are usually crappy properties, this 600 sq ft, built in 1923, fits that description. The next one may be tolerable, but stay patient because when the bulk of the popping happens, the nice places get mixed in. Bon Appetit.

42% off peak! Bank owned foreclosure. Sold Price: $925,000
5392 Wilshire Dr
San Diego, CA 92116

Beds/Baths: 4 / 4
Square Feet: 4,793 sf
PPSF: $198
Lot Size: 80,586

Date Price Held Return Annual
04/18/2008 $925,000 2y 10m -42% -17%
05/31/2005 $1,600,000 5y 8m 154% 18%
09/08/1999 $630,000 2m 20% 166%

This beautiful large private home has endless views of qualcomm stadium and mission valley! Hardwood flooring throughout, granite counters, wine cellar, dry sauna & much more

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-081003660-53...

Monster drops are interesting. In the 90's a monster drop might have been around 40% from previous purchase. This time Monster drops will certainly be bigger. Bigger fraud? On a similiar theme...
I was getting started looking at recent sales to see if I could find and evidence of lowball offers being accepted(from last list price not peak). Didn't get too far with it. I'll do more later.

What is noticeable about the Fern home is that it was priced at 154k. So yes it is a monster drop but it is not any sort of back door deal or anything like that. Nor was it a lowball. It was listed on the MLS, priced to sell, and sold that way.

I have been in the home on Wilshire. Man that Jeff Wagner gets so many darned listings from banks...I am definitely envious. Anyways it is okay. Yes it is a big home. I am not a fan of the noise out back again, considering what it was going for at the peak it is a nice drop.

SD Realtor

And he did last time around as well. If you have the contacts and know how to manage the REO inventory as he does, you get plenty.

I like the Popcorn Theory posted on this thread. It makes good sense to me.

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-076080990-62...

This brand new home has a listed sales' price of $804,954. It was listed in January for over $1.2 million and usually you would think the builder would give concessions rather than come down on the listed sales' price. It has a lot of amenities. Chula Vista is getting hit hard. Even this home doesn't seem like a bargain. I feel for the people who are now losing all the equity in their homes that they've talked about during dinner parties with their friends.

From the comments:

Point Loma - is this sale an anomaly, or a sign of things to come in Point Loma? What was the last sale price prior to this one at 600K? Thanks

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-076062646-87...

Thanks stockstradr, I'm kinda proud of it but truth be told I make up theories all the time, most are crap, this one seems to have legs. Most of my epiphanies occur while on the last few inches of a nice bottle of wine, so for the love of god, don't base any actual life decisions on my ramblings. The search engine on this site has needs help, I couldn't find the first time I posted it but if I had to guess it was before the dollar fell apart and I was in a bordeaux phase.

I think the popcorn theory is making sense. I'm noticing some declines in areas I wouldn't expect. The less desireable areas would get hit the hardest, condos tend to lead the way. Here's one, though probably not anything anyone here would be interested in, but just to show, that's an impressive drop. 52% on this one:

Bank owned. No kitchen or bathroom sink. Was on the market since 12/31/2007.

Sold Price: $160k.
At peak 10/11/2006 sold for $332k

2556 Chicago St #41
Beds/Baths: 1 / 1

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-076096936-25...

Golfgal:

Date--------------Price-------Held
03/14/2008---$600,000----2y--4 months
10/24/2005---$848,000----3y
10/10/2002---$642,000----2y 11m
11/10/1999---$450,000----2y-2m
08/20/1997---$339,000---n/a -

Thanks Ex-SD. Anyone know the details of this sale, condition of home? At a 29% drop, its good to see the popcorn theory is indeed working and gives hope that more "desirable" areas will become affordable sooner.

We discussed this on another thread. Nice place. Photos here:

http://www.873lomavalley.com/

Condo bank owned. 39% off peak.

10870 Sabre Hill Dr #275
Sold Price: $148,900
Listed: 12/24/2007
Beds/Baths: 1 / 1

Sales History
Date Price Held Return Annual
04/23/2008 $148,900 2y 6m -39% -18%
09/30/2005 $245,000 2y 4m 26% 10%
05/21/2003 $195,000 2y 11m 69% 19%
05/31/2000 $115,500 9m 28% 37%

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-076096313-10...

43% off peak in Hillcrest. Short sale.

Sold for 150k
3659 4th Ave #2
Beds/Baths: 1 / 1

Sales History
Date Price Held Return Annual
04/08/2008 $150,000 3y 11m -43% -13%
04/30/2004 $262,000 4y 3m 205% 30%
01/21/2000 $85,950 n/a - -

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-086001889-36...

42% drop in San Carlos
3bed/2bath
List price $515,000, Sold $309,000

Sales History
Date Price Held Return Annual
05/02/2008 $309,000 2y 9m -42% -18%
07/29/2005 $530,000 3y 87% 23%
07/25/2002 $283,000 6y 78% 10%
07/17/1996 $159,000 1y 4m 7% 5%
03/08/1995 $149,000 6y 4m 13% 2%
11/07/1988 $132,000 n/a - -

My first post -- thanks for all the great info on this site.

I know most people don't especially care for condos here, but this condo in Clairemont seems especially distressed:
http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-086009773-48...

4885 Cole #32, 2/1.5
Sales History
07/13/2007 $310,000
02/13/2004 $227,000
03/07/1991 $70,000
08/24/1983 $56,400

Listing Price Changes
Price Reduced: 04/18/2008 from $160,000 to $149,900
Price Reduced: 04/03/2008 from $225,000 to $160,000
Price Reduced: 02/16/2008 from $250,000 to $225,000
Price Reduced: 02/11/2008 from $299,000 to $250,000

52% off 07/07 sales price, 50% off 02/08 original asking price!

It looks like a bank foreclosure (no stove?), but otherwise in good shape. What do you all think? Will this set the norm for condo pricing in Clairemont?

2 bed / 1 bath @ 45% off 2003 price and 25% off 2002 price. I would assume this is 2001 or 2000 price. It's only 100% more than when it was in 1983. Not too shabby.

Sales History
11/26/2003 $216,700
08/26/2002 $160,000
12/18/1990 $79,200
09/23/1988 $63,900
01/04/1983 $59,700

List Price: $119,900

http://www.sdlookup.com/Property-D8A2A280-9510_Carroll_Canyon_Rd_106_San_Diego_CA_92126

Having tried to buy this house when it was listed at $899 and being rejected by the seller's relator I think something fishy is going on here.

First, we were totally financed (we've since bought a more expensive house near sunset clifs) but the realtor told us we must be financed though his bank.

Second there was tax liens, city building volitions which were being assessed at the rate of $100 per day, a termite issue and building that was not permitted. The seller's realtor basically told us not to buy it.

Then out of the blue we see it sold for $600!!! When you look at Zillow.com you now see that it's for sale by owner for $675. The interesting thing is that it's the same owner as when the house was listed for $899.

I do not think this is indicative of sales in SD. This seems like somethings more underhanded then that.