San Diego Housing Bubble News and Analysis

I bet the home will get bid up by multiple offers. However yeah I would bet the lender is looking for at least 500k for it. You never know though. Have your realtor call the listing agent to see if they have offers on it already.

SD Realtor

SD Realtor,

Wow, Sale Pending already, they took out the pictures too.

I am just curious. I have no plan to buy now. It's nice to see a 2000+ sq ft. house in the Calle Cristobal area listing under $500K. I want to wait one or two year to see if I could buy in Carmel Valley. If not, I will buy a house similar to this in Mira Mesa. Thanks.

It's comforting to see this. Hope that more deals will be on the way.

I think the current fair market price for this house is around $510K-$530K.

Fair market price is what it closes Escrow at....................

I would agree with you blackbox. Some sellers are getting it by pricing low and getting bidding wars. I am sure that happened with this home. It will more then likely close at a higher then advertised price.

SD Realtor

It seems like more and more seller are getting the hint that they can't afford to guess the market price. So, they just let the market tell them what the market think the price should be. This will definitely set new comps and make it less sticky on the way down (hopefully).

Yup. That's 2 that have gone down this way in the same neighborhood. These sellers are smart: price to sell while there are still enough buyers to generate competitive bids. If you are in or approaching a must-sell situation that's the way to go IMO!

oops

SDR,

Do you know what happened to this property? It is gone from SDLOOKUPS but I don't see it in the Closed Sales section.

Many thanks,

pending

in one post a while ago someone rated the different areas of Mira Mesa, stating which ones are best and so on.

I'm not familiar with the area so any help on this would be appreciated!

Which areas are best in Mira Mesa?

In general, I'd say, NW, SW, NE, SE.

Hey ibjames,

Depends on what you want. Wanna be near a dog park? Or near the shopping? Or in a quiet area? Newer homes? Near a school? MM has it all. Give me more details and I might be able to help, I have lived in MM for ~13 years.

safe, quiet

I think that is probably where my wife and I will end up some day, since it seems like it will end up being the most affordable.

The problem I'm having is that coworkers and friends act like MM is unsafe. I don't know if it is or isn't.

So I want a little direction on where to look..

What is your price range ibjames. MM housing stock is very diverse. You can get a condo for $100k to a canyon view 2000+sq-ft house for high $500k now. Mira mesa in general is pretty quiet. It's nothing like PB, etc. I think the south west Mira Mesa is where most of the crime occur. The worse I've seen is auto theft. That's very high in Mira Mesa. If you can afford it, the north west part of Mira Mesa, north of Calle Cristobal and between Camino Santa fe and Camino Ruiz. That's my #1 choice for MM. Houses in that area are relatively new and some have canyon view.

thanks,

that's the funny part, my wife has coworkes that said sorrento mesa (west part of mira mesa?) is the best, but that is opposite of what you say

I would take your word over them

I don't have a price range, but when I'm looking at prices in redfin I want to have an idea what I'm looking at

there was one I think you posted one time that was very nice, it had a pool and a great canyon view, that's what got me looking at mira mesa in the first place

I'm not sure where we'll end up. I like living west, so I'm not sure if I would take poway over MM. I work in Carlsbad so that plays into the scheme of things also.

I might take her that way next weekend just so she can get an idea what the place looks like. We live in Solana Beach right now so she's spoiled

I live right where asianautica described, IMO it's the best area of MM to live in. Pretty quiet, no crime (although people from CV seem to think MM is riddled with bullet holes). I often see solo women joggers out in the canyon (Penasquitos Canyon Trailhead) and there haven't been any rapes/attacks I know of. In my 13 years of MM living the only thing that ever happened to me was the "H" being stolen off my Honda. Of course I immediately called 911 and considered buying a $900k McBox in CV to get away from this deadly crime.

Sarcasm aside, I think you're looking to rent, no? Are you going to rent a house or a condo?

This condo for rent is plenty for 2 people. No garage though.

Here's how the name and housing stock is like... Sorrento Valley is 92121 zip code, it's a tiny community along Sorrento Valley Blvd between the freeway and Camino Santa Fe. Once you head east past Camino Santa Fe on Sorrento Valley Blvd, it becomes Calle Cristobal. That area has 92126 zip code, so, for all intent and purposes, it's Mira mesa, but some want to distinguish themselves from the MM name, so they (the north side of Calle Cristobal between Camino Santa Fe and Camino Ruiz) call themselves Sorrento Mesa. But it's really just a name.

Sorrento Valley houses are mostly 2000-3000 sq-ft built in late 90s. Sorrento Mesa are mainly 2000-2200 sq-ft built in early to late 90s. Although both area are basically the same in my eyes, Sorrento Valley is much more expensive. A 2000 sq-ft there are asking for mid 600s while in Sorrento Mesa, they're mid 500s.

james I think asia described it right: the NW part of Mira Mesa is also called Sorrento Mesa (near Camino Santa Fe).

Just curious,
If you work in Carlsbad, why not look in North County? Like Shadowridge area in Vista, parts of San Marcos, and even areas in Carlsbad-Carlsbad has homes in the low 500's now??

One thing useful about Redfin is if you type in the zip code it will outline the area on the map (look at 92121 and 92126). Also, if you're going north on the 5 in the morning it should be a fairly easy drive, in comparison to the southbound traffic.

The Mrs. works at QCOM, I'll be the one to drive if we ever did buy. We rent in Solana Beach currently, which is great, but we will probably never be able to afford something there, so I am just browsing potential places I might buy someday..

My current theory is that there is indeed some "pent up" demand from those anxious to buy at a discount.

I also think there are less of these folks then there are properties in the foreclosure pipeline, so things are going to get *real* interesting when we hit that bottom.

My current theory is that there is indeed some "pent up" demand from those anxious to buy at a discount.

Theory?  I think it's a fact which describes pretty much every person here on piggington, including the creator; however, I wouldn't describe it as wanting to buy at a discount.  I would describe it as wanting to buy at rational prices not funny-money prices.

Mira Mesa inventory is droping fast in the last few months. It was over 10 months a while ago, but it is in 5.x months now.

On the other hand, CV inventory has been growing.

I guess buyers are being more realistic and settling for what they really can afford.

Also, sellers are being much more realistic in MM compare to anywhere else in north county. Linky, this is the first house w/ 2 car garage in MM under $290k.

What do you guys think the average house will go for when all is said and done?

Think a place like that could be had for 220? Less? More?

What are 2000 prices.. weren't they around the lower 200's or upper 100's?

Personally, I think at 290k, it'll be cheaper for you to buy this place instead of renting this place. So, asking how low it go is just like asking how high it'll go in 2003. No one knows, because it's pure psychology at that point. You have greed on the way up and fear on the way.

I believe it will depend on median household income and an approximate multiplier of that, say 3x or similar. Prices may have been lower in 2000, but people with reasonable jobs make more now than then.

FM,

You bring up a great/logical point. However, logic and the housing market don't go hand-in-hand. It might be plenty of pressure for the Mira Mesa to get down to reality because the local income don't support/reflect current pricing. I do hope to a decent GRM or 3x income in the area. I've found a site that provides some interesting Demographics/stats for the area issued in 2005.

Demographics for Zip Code 92126

Full report here:
http://homes.point2.com/Neighborhood/US/...

Income / Financial (Zip: 92126)
Average Household Income $79,268
Median Household Income $67,466
Median Income Under 25 $48,045
Median Income 25-34 $66,129
Median Income 35-44 $72,227
Median Income 45-54 $71,409
Median Income 55-64 $70,012
Median Income 65-74 $60,383
Median Income Over 75 $55,775
Percent increase/decrease in income since 1990 56.0 %
Percent increase/decrease in income since 2000 10.0 %
Average Household Net Worth $141,401
Median Household Net Worth $43,638
Average Home Sale Price $447,588
Median Total Debts $34,967
Sales Tax Rate 7.7500 %
Sales Tax Type PL
Average Total Household Expenditure $60,010