San Diego Housing Bubble News and Analysis

We're not running out of land.

Technology is making it easier and easier to build on our hilly terrain.

It's not that we can't build on the hilly terrains, there are many homes that were built on hilly terrain for many years now. It's all about zoning that's preventing them from building.

This development is way too far north for my taste. Still waiting for more new development in the Torrey Highland area. There are plenty of flat usable land there.

That's not the way I read the map...click on "explore Merriam Mountains"...you'll see a road leading from Overlook to Camino Mayor to Lawrence Welk Court out the north side of the project.

We considered buying a house on Lawrence Welk Court a couple of years ago...right now it ends as a court (thus the name) and there is virtually NO traffic. I figured it would be too tempting to hook LWC to whatever development would be done in the adjacent hills (making it a 'court' no longer), and it looks like I was right.

What's too far now, won't be 20 years from now. Much closer and cooler than Temecula.

Back in the 1970s Mira Mesa was far.

20 years ago we didn't even think 4S.

I was talking to a friend who works for a major builder. He said technology is making it easier to build and to grade. I'll ask for specifics next time.

Mira Mesa is still far if you work in downtown or surrounding areas. There's still only 24 hours a day today as it was 40 years ago. Those who wouldn't mind commuting 45+ min. one way to work did so 40 years ago as they do today. What I'm trying to say is, time doesn't appreciate over time. You don't get more time with inflation. There's a limit in how many minutes someone is willing to commute to work. Unless you're predicting there will be a Carmel Valley/Sorrento Valley like business area up in that area in 20 years, it would still be too far for someone to work in SV/CV and live up there. That distance is similar to someone living in Chula Vista and work in Carmel/Sorrento Valley.

BTW, I have no doubt that technology have greatly improve the building process. I'm trying to say that zoning is more important than tech when it comes to building more homes in areas closer to the center of the city. There are plenty of land east of SD. Just look at how far LA expanded to the east and you'll see that SD still have plenty of room to grow. Many people who live in LA/OC will consider MM/Scripps/Poway/PQ/RB/etc. as close to the beach. While us San Diegans will say those are inland areas. Far/near is all relative. Is this what you mean when you say what's far today won't be consider far 20 years from now? I.E. SD will become the next LA in term of sprawl? I sincerely hope SD won't become LA.

merriam mountain

very rough terrain for sure. took a look and compared this to SEH and 4S and Carmel Valley, and Stonebridge, this beats them all. average elevation of 1000 to 1500 feet above sea level.

" SD will become the next LA in term of sprawl? I"

Welcome to the coming LA/OC/SD mega city coming relatively soon to SD (20-30 years).

Not saying it's good (or bad) just saying it's inevitable.

Anyone know when they will start building this thing ???

From my limited experiences in that area (Next to LWC) the weather there is about the same as Temecula most of the time (within maybe 5 degrees or so). But I would guess the price range for say about 3000 sqf home will be about 500K but that is just my guess.

As a side note:

I work in an industry that's working very hard to make distance irrivlant for work for a large part of our population.

New mass transit projects that are also inevitable will also make distance less important. (unless you want to go to the beach but really if your not a surfer then 30-50 minutes to the beach is fine for the 3 maybe 5 times you will go there in a given year (maybe 10 to 15 times if your really into walking at the beach or that whole camp fire thing they do at moonlight beach I think they call it).

That Moonlight beach environment/vibe is really nice but really only maybe 5 times a year is special, more than that I think would get boring.

i would not mind living underground

Yeah that IS some rough terrain. Doesn't that add to the cost of living there as the HOA will have to maintain slopes and such and it can't be cheap to prep the building sites and run utilities thru there.

So you believe the population projections? Is it simply coming from a graying population? Unchecked immigration from the south?

BTW, Deer Springs and 15 is more than 5 degrees cooler than T-Town, IMO. I lived in Pala Mesa Village for 2 1/2 years, which is 8-10 miles north of Merriam Mtn project. People talked about the coastal influence apparent once you got south of Rainbow and then especially when hitting San Luis Rey River Valley (76)

I stayed at the LW resort about 7 years ago, it always seems quite a bit warmer in the summer than say standing at the 15/76 junction for what ever reason, but I will admit I have limited experience in that area other driving through and stopping a few times.

And yes SoCal has always been on a super growth path, there have been many times in the past that SoCal was declared dead but it always comes back. Asia is where I see the biggest influx of emigration these days (not Mexico).

Extreme fire danger, lack of water, and traffic congestion ?

http://www.cbs8.com/Global/story.asp?S=1...

In other news, there seems to be serious talk of building 10,000 houses off route 78 near Wild Animal Park ...

Is there sewer out there? We've been surprised to learn just how much of Escondido is on septic, including a couple of houses we looked at out that way.

C'mon now An, tell me how 10K homes by the Wild Animal Park are gonna affect homes in Carlsbad or Carmel Valley : ) Imho, homes over there will compete w/ homes in Escondido, San Marcos, Santee?,
-the inland areas, maybe even Chula Vista. Gosh, w/ Merriam Mountain too can the 15 and 78 handle any more traffic?

Oh, I didn't mean it'll affect price in NCC. What I'm trying to say in general is that, we need more supply and more supply = lower price. Simple supply and demand.

Right now there's no sewer, no water, and the only road is route 78, which is one lane each way, so it's going to be tough to handle traffic from 10,000 additional households (basically as much as Ramona). But the developer owns around 22,000 acres in the area and he promises to donate a big chunk of it in exchange for concessions. Depending on how negotiations go, he might convince the powers that be to run some water pipes or even to widen the 78.

The sewer is probably not going to happen. I recall reading that Escondido sewer system is close to capacity as is, any substantial expansion would involve laying new pipes from the sewer processing site all the way to the ocean, and the cost of that is crazy high (I recall seeing the number $500 million). And there's no other sewer system for many miles in any direction.

It's remarkable that there's so little buildable land left close to the city, that people start discussing outlandish proposals like this one. Almost everything is either built-out or belongs to some kind of conservancy.

Eugene - would that be in the San Pasqual valley? If so - would the houses have to have some agricultural use? (I know there's currently an agricultural zoned area in the SPV near the wild animal park.)

No, it's even further out, in the hills to the northeast of San Pasqual Valley.