San Diego Housing Bubble News and Analysis

I don't know why the people of San Diego keep on re-electing the politicians who are in the pockets of developers.

McAllister also stopped publishing the collection rates on his website. Not a lot of sunshine at this politician's office.

Mc Allister and Smith operate out of the same office.

An assessor is supposed to be like an appraiser and recognize the true value of real estate. But instead he acts like proxies for the real estate industry.

http://www.voiceofsandiego.org/articles/...

"with 23 years under his belt in the assessor's office"

this guy has seen the last two cycles in San Diego real estate - he's the guy with the raw data to know that both of the previous cycles took 6 or 7 years to bottom

interesting that now, just 2 or 3 years after the peak he is saying that we are in a buyers market

it is almost as if he had a vested interest in seeing real estate prices rise

oh ...

"Smith also has a stake in how the real estate market fares."

"There's some Realtors, some people in the industry, who don't agree with me," he said. "And I tend to be an optimistic person. I don't tend to be a doom-and-gloomer."

I always wonder how reasonable economic expectations and standard accounting became "doom and gloom".

By any definition I could find, we ARE in a "buyer's market."

A buyer's market is a market for a good (stocks, housing, etc.) where prices are falling and there are more parties interested in selling than in buying.

http://economics.about.com/cs/economicsg...

http://www.allbusiness.com/glossaries/bu...

http://www.answers.com/topic/buyer-s-market

"By any definition I could find"

seems like a complete definition would address the ability of the buyers to actually buy the item in question

let's see, no more:
- zero down loans
- stated income (liars) loans
- cheap jumbo loans
- inflated appraisals

yep, sounds like a buyer's market to me too

McAllister has all the raw data. He should know better than anyone else.

If he cared about transparency he would make that raw data freely available for download. I'm sure that the piggs here would make some good sense out of it.

scroll to the bottom for McAllister's county website and notice that the data stops in 2006.

http://www.sdtreastax.com/pt_general.html
What are the newspaper reporters doing? Why are they not asking for explanations?

You are not a doom-and-gloomer if things truly are as crappy as you state in your argument...you are a realist. The "optimists/delusionists" like Greg Smith are so much worse than their counterparts who said that we were in a RE bubble back in 2004, before the peak had come and gone.

Greg Smith has displayed gross impropriety and conflict of interest by whoring out his stature as a "respected public official" for the benefit of the RE industry. He is the epitome of our corrupt system of government and should be removed from office and brought up on charges. Who am I fooling? That would only occur in a system where the people think critically and actually give a crap about what goes on outside of the headlines from E! News.

Come on guys really. We have discussed this alot.

The raw data is at

http://www.foreclosureforum.com/stats.html

Actually we have pretty much just as much information as McAllister does. Of course defaults and trustee sales have declined over the past few months. In fact they have declined DRASTICALLY, approximately 60% due to the legislation passed last July.

There is nothing surprising nor shocking.

What will be kind of interesting though is now that the lenders are basically being forced to let people live in homes for free will those same people who default on property taxes be allowed to stay as well?

He must have some raw data to back up his statement. As a government official, he should not have taken any sides because he is supposed to be neutral. Therefore, I believe what he said. But SD realtor makes a good point. A new policy might have significantly reduce the number of foreclosure.

Technically it is a "buyer's market" and not a "seller's market". It's easier to buy for a price lower than the asking price. That's the definition.

SD realtor, no, I don't think that we have the same data as McAllister and Smith.

1) They see the information in advance to they should be AHEAD of the curve, not blindsided.

2) When times are tough, people wait 'til the last minute to pay their taxes. The rate at which taxes are collected throughout the year is not reported to citizens.

These guys need to be voted out of office for siding with the real estate industry and allowing their names to be used for sales promotions.

As Condi Rice would say, we cannot accept the status quo ante.

"... ability of buyers to actually buy the item in question ..."

BY definition if they are buyers they have the ability to buy. Otherwise they are onlookers.

As to whether one should buy currently ? Well that is another question altogether, and should not be confused with the term "buyer's market"

But as to whether it's a buyer's market in economic terms. Of this there is no doubt.

PW I think the thing that irks me is the somewhat gullible nature for anyone to believe anything that these guys say. Our federal, state, and local government officials are as inept as could be. In any other private institution these guys would at least be fired and at best be facing criminal charges.

With that said if somebody thinks that McAllister has a little red phone on his desk so that he can call up Countrywide or Wamu and ask what the rate of foreclosures are for this or that month, is laughable. The fact that he can make an announcement like that and not one idiot is smart enough to go to him and say, "Maybe it is because of the legislation enacted in July" proves that the sheep are as dumb or dumber then the sheppard but shame on us or the press for not doing that.

The bottom line is actually the other way around. It is the lenders that have the ability to declare a homeowner in default when a homeowner does not pay taxes. This is because the government is senior to the lender. So in tax defaults lenders will want to get the home before the government does.

I would say we both have the same opinion of our lofty leaders.

I am just irritated by the whole thing so I didn't mean to come down on the op or other posters on it. It just seems obvious to me that's all.

Greg Smith resigned as Assessor effective 12/30/08.

Good to see him go.
Would not surprise me if he took a job with a developer.

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/metro...