May Case-Shiller Charts

Submitted by Rich Toscano on July 28, 2010 - 3:15pm
Kelly Bennett rounded up the latest Case-Shiller numbers yesterday. (Her final C-S writeup?  Sniff sniff...)  I don't have much to add to Kelly's analysis this latest release so I will just supplement with the usual assortment of charts:



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Submitted by sobmaz on July 28, 2010 - 5:46pm.

The "increase" is all hogwash.

Those low prices of last year were never available to the "average" buyer anyway, only those with the right connections.

So in reality prices never fell as much as the numbers indicated and the current numbers are just catching up with reality.

I have been looking at houses every month for over a year and from what I see prices started going up in Jan of 09 and then we had the low inventory situation. In the last 3 months prices have fallen drastically in zips like 92115 and 92120 and from where I sit prices are now cheaper than they were in the fall of 2008...... at least cheaper when you are comparing what is/was available to the average person.

Submitted by sdrealtor on July 29, 2010 - 12:36pm.

Have to disagree as I did plenty of short sale listings that were bought by average buyers. Granted the market was brutal and there was lots of competition for them but they were out there to committed buyers represented by good agents. However, would you expect anything different? I didn't. For years I have been telling folks around here that the lower prices get the more affordable they are and the more competiton there is and will be for the good ones. Thats exactly what happened and will continue to happen.

Submitted by moneymaker on July 30, 2010 - 8:56am.

Love the chart! Makes me feel all warm and fuzzy inside. Takes the sting out of the meager returns I'm now getting with my 401K.

Submitted by SD Realtor on July 30, 2010 - 4:46pm.

Actually there were several piggly wigglys who bought homes in that downtime late in 08 and posted about it.

I think they were just regular people as well.

Submitted by AN on July 30, 2010 - 6:39pm.

SD Realtor wrote:
Actually there were several piggly wigglys who bought homes in that downtime late in 08 and posted about it.

I think they were just regular people as well.


I refuse to believe I'm just a regular person. I have insider information from my insider Realtor, so I was about to pounce on the insider deal. :-)

Submitted by 34f3f3f on July 30, 2010 - 10:03pm.

I'm just amazed nobody seems concerned, or even curious that such a high rate of recovery should be happening. This is housing for Christ's sake, not the friggin' stock market. When are those who claim to have foreseen the bubble going to come out and say this is crazy!

Submitted by jpinpb on July 30, 2010 - 11:27pm.

qwerty007 wrote:
When are those who claim to have foreseen the bubble going to come out and say this is crazy!

I see what's going on and I feel like I'm crazy. Does that count?

Submitted by 34f3f3f on July 31, 2010 - 7:14am.

jpinpb wrote:
qwerty007 wrote:
When are those who claim to have foreseen the bubble going to come out and say this is crazy!

I see what's going on and I feel like I'm crazy. Does that count?

:) Most definitely! I don't remember hearing about an over-correction, or that wages had jumped six times inflation, or that unemployment had ceased over-night, or that record levels of foreclosures are now ancient history. Who thinks the chances of these gains trickling away starting in the fall and into 2012 are fair to good?

Submitted by FormerSanDiegan on July 31, 2010 - 3:22pm.

qwerty007 wrote:
jpinpb wrote:
qwerty007 wrote:
When are those who claim to have foreseen the bubble going to come out and say this is crazy!

I see what's going on and I feel like I'm crazy. Does that count?

:) Most definitely! I don't remember hearing about an over-correction, or that wages had jumped six times inflation, or that unemployment had ceased over-night, or that record levels of foreclosures are now ancient history. Who thinks the chances of these gains trickling away starting in the fall and into 2012 are fair to good?

I believe that there was an overcorrection, precipitated by fear of total economic collapse at the end of 2008. By Spring 2009, carrying costs of buying were at 33+ year lows in San Diego as compared to rent. (driven by both price declines and interest rate declines).
However, I could see scenarios where these recent gains would trickle away over the next 2 years ... recession, more fear, or a spike in interest rates.
I don;t see a high likelihood of more than 5-10%downside, though (based on broad measures like C-S).

Submitted by CA renter on August 2, 2010 - 1:43am.

qwerty007 wrote:
jpinpb wrote:
qwerty007 wrote:
When are those who claim to have foreseen the bubble going to come out and say this is crazy!

I see what's going on and I feel like I'm crazy. Does that count?

:) Most definitely! I don't remember hearing about an over-correction, or that wages had jumped six times inflation, or that unemployment had ceased over-night, or that record levels of foreclosures are now ancient history. Who thinks the chances of these gains trickling away starting in the fall and into 2012 are fair to good?

**raises hand** :)

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