May 2011 Resale Data Rodeo

Submitted by Rich Toscano on June 13, 2011 - 7:04pm
All the gloom and doom about the national market notwithstanding, the median price per square foot of San Diego resale homes nudged up again in May:



The increase wasn't terribly impressive... for the month, this price indicator was up .5% for single family homes, 3.1% for condos, and 1.1% in aggregate.  (The single family series is the most reliable and should be given the most weight).  But any increase at all seems like a positive in the wake of the pessimism that resulted from the March Case-Shiller release.

On that note, here's a look what the April and May Case-Shiller numbers may look like if the median price per square foot is giving a good read on actual price changes:



Same two charts, lined up by calendar year.  We are in what is typically the strong season:





The number of closed sales increased slightly.  Sales were below their year-ago levels, but the tax credit stimulus was still in place in May 2010 so I don't think that's very meaningful:



Pendings also were up a bit, and were pretty much unchanged from a year ago:



Inventory rose slightly once again:



And months of inventory remained flat at just under 5 months:



The balance between supply and demand looks healthy enough... slightly above 2010 levels but not by much (and with no tax credit stimulus about to expire).

For those seeking the next big leg down in housing, it doesn't seem to be happening here in San Diego.  Of course, we are in the strongest part of the year, so the market could weaken down the road.  But for now, it continues to hang in there.
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Submitted by afx114 on June 13, 2011 - 11:30pm.

Hey Rich, just a heads up, I was reading this over at VoSD.com and it looks like the last graph (Months of Inventory) is broken over there.

Submitted by Rich Toscano on June 14, 2011 - 8:45am.

Thanks afx! It's fixed now...

BTW probably no need to read the Voice versions of these... I do two versions of the big monthly report because with the pigg version I can be nerdier, more data-y, and most important I can assume a level of background knowledge that I can't over at Voice. So the versions here should typically have more data and musings but less background that you already know.

Submitted by afx114 on June 14, 2011 - 9:41am.

Ahh, I had subscribed to VoSD's RSS feed back in ye olden tymes, so I always ended up reading that version first. I've updated my subscription to Piggington instead. Thx for the tip.

Submitted by sdduuuude on June 14, 2011 - 10:04am.

If you cut the graph off at Jan '09, this all looks really normal. No wonder we have all these political threads - that's all there is to talk about when the real-estate market is all normalish and stuff.

Would be interesting to see a graph from 2000 to present with the bubble points (say 2003 through 2008) left out.

Submitted by SD Realtor on June 18, 2011 - 4:24pm.

I would be willing to wager that the trends will stay intact bumping along until we see a change in interest rates. Once long term rates bump into the 6% territory there will be some impact after a "period of realization" by sellers.

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