San Diego Housing Bubble News and Analysis

Somebody posted that there were less than 50% of the available foreclosures on the market. With more undoubtedly on the way, today's discounted foreclosure will likely be just another overpriced house in a few months/years. If you just compare to the existing market, there are some deals that look smokin', but it's those smoking deals that give away the future of the market.

Even in a gloomy housing market one still needs to keep in mind the psychological aspects of home ownership.

If someone has the financial ability to make a purchase in this market, even purchasing at 10-20 percent above the expected market value, once you factor in the pychological benefits of home ownership, its sometimes enough to get a buyer to make the leap.

There will always be those who place a high value on the stability and pride that home ownership provides. remember too that cities like san diego have limited land available for housing, so at some point once the price gets to a certain basement barrier, the basics of supply and demand start to kick in.

This is evident by the fact that rents are considerably high in socal, with 2 and 3 bedroom homes renting well into the 2,000's/mth.

as far as speculators go, thats an entirely different story. house flipping in this market is just plain foolish.

Rent's have gone up because prices have gone up, but they're still not as out of whack as prices. I think we're reaching the point (due to layoffs, living expenses, over-crowding, and demographic conditions) where we will see population declines, rent declines, and further price drops.

The psychological benefits of a home I would argue are most often imagined by those who have never owned. I used to think I was saavy because I didn't want to throw money out the window by renting. I couldn't be happier renting.

Foreclosures typically go for market value, not necessarily 50% below the FSBO down the street. Think of them as incremental corrections to inflated prices. And with an unprecedented number of them, and more on the way, prices will fall for a long time.

As the psychological tide shifts on the housing market, I don't think that people are likely be willing to overpay for the priveledge of home ownership. In fact, in years to come I believe that many will be willing to overpay for the relative flexibility and safety of renting.

Fear and greed are powerful forces. And "psychology" pushes both ways.

BZ. Bulls eye.

I would tend to agree with iseedots on this. Addressing psychology, I think there is an overall underlying sentiment on the part of most folks that is pro-homeownership. At this particular point in time that underlying sentiment may be overlaid with a psychology of caution and restraint due to the market conditions, but as prices fall the underlying desire to buy will emerge, at different points in time for different people.

I was around and a homeowner during the last real estate (and overall economic) downturn last decade and the prevailing concern then, in my opinion, was regarding jobs and the economy. I recall no negative sentiment toward real estate in the sense of "real estate is a terrible investment." In fact, there was a general consensus among smart money folks that SD real estate was a sound investment and that we would see real estate prices rise substantially out of the recession. That being said, I don't think it is too helpful to look back at those days inasmuch as we have a completely different scenario confronting us in the current market.

I wanted to clarify that i personally do find that renting is not something anyone should feel "less" proud about.

i was definitely speaking in terms of general public opinion.

I for one think that renting is often the smart move, so long as you are saving well and building rock solid credit while doing it.

Im a guy though so the idea of renting sits well with me.I am speaking to you as matter of fact though, that 8/10 women, especially mothers, do not want to rent. I might get called out here for this gender bias, but there is a feeling that home ownership provides that strikes at the heart of what it is to make a home for a family.

Overall it appears that this pyschological urge to own, is not so prevalent right now anyway, so this is all a moot point. the fact is that almost nothing is moving, and even foreclosures are selling at the medians we'll see 6-12 months from now. Not too many people are foolish enough to overpay with this tidal wave of bad news airing 24 7.

Agreed dots. As news continues and worsens, people will be less likely to buy, inventories build, values drop.

As government, lenders, and potential buyers overreact to the dilemma it will deepen the correction.

I plan to buy when I know tells me it's a bad idea. I think there are still some people who think a house will make you rich.

I'll buy when renting and buying makes sense, or I can buy something that I like and not feel like I'm sacrificing certain things just to own..