San Diego Housing Bubble News and Analysis

Canadians are know for being very frugal with their money as they have to be given provincal/fed taxes, socialized healthcare etc... They are known to vacation in Cuba

My inlaws defintely fit this bill.

Mexico has never been a particularly good place to invest given a long history of unstable governments. Ask the people who owned home on the Ensenada Estero how they feel about retirement homes in Mexico.

I know a family that moved to La Paz and took over a small hotel/sportfishing charter business and have dealt with quite a few challenges including deportation back to US. You have to know who to bribe to make a go of it.

I would advise marrying a Mexican national.

I'm familiar with Manzanillo and like it very much. It's true that more Canadians seem to move there than Americans, but that isn't true of Mexico as a whole. For whatever reason, Americans don't seem to be as aware of Manzanillo-- probably a question of marketing.

Let me introduce myself: American female; have lived in several places in Mexico over a period of a dozen years or so, and visited over a longer period of time.

The only area in Mexico that has the weather benefits of San Diego is the Pacific Coast of the Baja Peninsula, especially the corridor leading from Rosarito Beach to south of Ensenada. The rest of coastal Mexico is considerably hotter and more humid, especially in the summer. That holds true with Manzanillo, too.

Manzanillo is favored by many retirees for several reasons, not the least of which being that it's less expensive than many more well known coastal cities. It is also less touristy than places like Los Cabos, Puerto Vallarta and Cancun, with a real Mexican feel to it. The winters are wonderful there, and the scenery outstanding. The Las Hadas resort is where the movie "10" was filmed. Manzanillo is just now entering a bit of a boom with the development of the Cascadas de Manzanillo residential project on 530 acres. Yes, Canadians are buying there. Overall, it's a very pleasant place to live or visit.

The real estate boom already spread to Mexico, and it's already following the US bust, too. Some places felt the boom more strongly than others, such as northern Baja and Puerto Penasco on the northern Sonora coast. Real estate prices rose dramatically in those places, but they are now feeling the affects of the slow down. The Rosarito Beach area has seen sales slow down dramatically this year, and Puerto Penasco had a real rough 2006 in terms of sales. (The latter should have been expected, as its market consisted mostly of Arizonans buying overpriced luxury condos as an investment. There is now a glut of condos, with more in the pipeline, and Arizona's real estate market is in the tank-- which can't help but affect PP.)

As for the safety of buying real estate in Mexico, it's as safe as anywhere else but you have to do your homework. What happened to those poor retirees at Punta Banda outside of Ensenada was an anomaly, not the norm.

Anything in particular you want to know about? Ask away and if I know the answer I'll tell you.

Investing into a 3rd world country like "me'heeco" with an unstable govt, an economy that is in the crapper for the last 25 years, total govt corruption that rivals a banana republic and filled with an unskilled, uneducated population is good idea?........YEAH RIGHT !!

Good luck.

I'm no defender of Mexico, but it has been a good investment for alot of people over the last 30 years. It all comes down to risk reward. I'll say this in defense of Mexico. If its so unstable at this point, why can you get American title insurance? I know you can as my father lives there.

I haven't been to Manzanillo since my fathers boat broke down in the bay next to Las Hadas almost ten years ago. It was nice and sleepier than Mazatlan or PV. Its also a heavy port so there is industry other than tourism.

As to Canadians, there are alot of them in PV and Manzanillo, as well as Mazatlan. The pacific coast of Mexico seems to be a favored travel destination. Most places you go put out Canadian flags whenever they put out an American one (PV at least.)

Josh

Really you need to do more research before you shoot your mouth off. You don't know what you're talking about.

You bet the government is corrupt. So is the US government. The latter just hides it better.

Mexico can be a wonderful place to live, as is attested by hundreds of thousands of Americans, Canadians and Europeans who have chosen to do just that. It is filled with skilled, educated people who are kind, warm and friendly. Unfortunately the job market sucks, so you find a lot of college graduates doing lowly work.

Hey! Just like in the USA!

"You bet the government is corrupt. So is the US government. The latter just hides it better."

tigerdog, I think you pretty well said it. In the US we are more sophisticated and profit legally. But in the end, it's all about profiting and becoming rich.

Rich country vs. poor country is like family vs. a poor family. A rich family eats at the table with luxurious china and silverware. They have impeccable manners and seem beyond reproach. A poor family eats at the kitchen counter out of the pots. The poor family's habits look really bad and unsophisticated.

Anything in particular you want to know about? Ask away and if I know the answer I'll tell you.

Thanks for the information.. I'm interested in checking it out on my next fishing trip. I guess being less traveled helps makes a place more desirable for the retiree or person wanting to enjoy different elements, at the same time - won't most places become touristy as they become safe and have more money flowing in?

I guess I don't even know what to ask.. How much can a person get a vacation house down there for in USD? Say 1 or 2 bedrooms, how about on and then near the beach general price.. Also, what would you say average age of retiree is down there?

As to the average age of retirees, I'm afraid I don't know that. Keep in mind that not all gringos living there are retired; there are younger people as well, some with children, who have managed to open and run various businesses.

For pretty good info about Manzanillo, including real estate prices, you should visit this website: http://www.gomanzanillo.com/ Spend some time there.

Not everyone who decides to retire to a foreign country is happy with their decision. How content you are will be due in large part to your ability to adjust to a culture that is very different from what you are used to. One of the hardest things for Americans and Canadians to get used to is the slow pace. Mexicans work hard, but they're in no hurry. Manana technically means "tomorrow", but in reality it just means "at some time in the future", lol. They don't live by the clock in the same way that we do.

I've never come across an online forum for Manzanillo, but it might be helpful to you to visit some forums for other cities in Mexico that have a large expat community. Mazatlan comes to mind because it bears a lot of resemblance to Manzanillo in many ways.

For instance, both cities have a well developed tourist area that is pretty much separate from the main city. Both have other industry to support their infrastructure, so they are not totally reliant on tourism-- and that makes them more relaxed.

Mazatlan's message forum is quite active, and you can get a good feel for what it's like living in Mexico that will stand you in good stead in Manzanillo or anywhere else-- things like what paperwork you need, bringing your "stuff" down, etc. along with more intangible things. These are helpful people, and if you have questions they'll answer them for you. See http://www.whatsupmaz.com/folder_06/foru...

Another good place to look is at the San Carlos forum. San Carlos is north of both Mazatlan and Manzanillo along the Sea of Cortez. About a 5 or 6-hour drive from the Arizona border. This is a very pleasant retirement/second home town in the Sonoran Desert, just a few minutes drive from the Mexican city of Guaymas. I mention it because since most of the gringos living there are retirees (and snowbirds who spend the winters), you might get a feel for what it's like to retire in Mexico. The specifics are different (climate, etc.) but the basics are the same.

See http://www.vivasancarlos.com/bulletin/in... for that message board.

All three of those places have good marinas, by the way, for your boat. :-)

Note that summer is the tourist season for Mexican families and all 3 places are very popular vacation spots for middle class Mexicans. So the tourist areas are really only drowsy for a couple months in the spring and fall.

I hope this is helpful to you.

PS: Most places in Mexico are safe for gringos, whether or not they are touristy. There are exceptions, and you have to be alert and smart (just as you do in the USA), but Pancho Villa is dead. ;-)

I dunno, tigerdog. Maybe it's because my universe of Mexicans is limited to three La Jolla families. But, all three families left Mexico because they found it dangerous. One fellow told me his family left after his brother was murdered in a botched kidnapping attempt.

Sure, all three Mexican families in my universe have money (and two are Jewish). But, since most Americans are relatively wealthy compared to the typical Mexican, wouldn't any American be a potential target?

I have been to almost all of the vacations spots on the pacific coast of Mexico, some of them quite a few times. I agree the others about the Canadians in Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta, many times they are dominant tourist. While I like the Canadians they seem to tip so poorly that I get treated like a rock star for tipping high by American standards (usually 25% because so many of the service workers are awesome and I feel I have to make up for the Canadians). As far as Manzanillo, that would not be a vacation choice of mine again, it's like going to Long Beach. It's one of, if not the biggest commercial ports in Mexico. If you were looking to work in international trade, sure, but not for a retiree or a vacation. Puerto Vallarta seems to have the most ex-patriots in Latin America behind Costa Rica and Belize. I have relatives that have owned a second home there for twenty years with no problems and they probably spend four months a year there. P.V. even has a newspaper in English that caters to all the Americans. Personally ZIHUATANEJO is my favorite for a many reasons but it is on the sleepy side, depends what you are looking for. If there wasn't so many things here I would miss I could probably be happy there.

Mexico has a long way to go before I am willing to invest there, things are too trendy, subject to local politics and marketing. Acapulco is a prime example, it was nice thirty years ago and it has gone downhill over the last decade, I see it starting to happen in other coastal towns in mexico while others spring up or improve, the money moves. Not to be ethnocentric, but American coastal towns are more stable as an investment, Imperial Beach and Oceanside will allways be Imperial Beach and Oceanside. Del Mar, La Jolla and Carlsbad will always be Del Mar, La Jolla and Carlsbad. Their stability and place in the pecking order have not changed in my lifetime. Oceanside may improve and increase in price but you can bet they won't pass Del Mar in mere decades, I don't think in my lifetime anyone will say "Del mar and La Jolla used to be nice but now it is such a ghetto." When buying real estate you can't have complete stability but you look at historical trends and try for what stability you can find.

jg, your Mexican friends are correct that Mexico is a dangerous place for wealthy Mexicans. That does not translate to being a dangerous place for gringos, though, with a few exceptions. In border areas such as Tijuana and Juarez, gringos who own businesses there or work for/run maquiladoras are very occasionally targeted for kidnapping, and that's a very scary thing. I stress the word "occasionally".

Tourists and retirees, though wealthy by the standards of ordinary Mexicans, are not generally targets of violent crime. They improve the living standards of the locals in the community with the money they spend in the area, and in general there is a pretty good symbiotic relationship going on. As in any place in the world, there are occasional break-ins, petty theft, muggings, etc. (much of that is drug related, just as it is in the States), but if gringos felt in danger there wouldn't be so many of them living there.

The most recent data I read from the US government reported that they are sending in the vicinity of 750,000 Social Security checks to Mexico, and both the US and Mexico governments agree that the number of expats living in Mexico is almost certainly under-reported.

You raise some good points temeculaguy, but we're not talking about "investing" in Mexico. We're talking retirement.

I like Zihuatanejo a lot, too. Not Ixtapa, but Zihua. But I tend to like the sleepy places no matter where I go on the planet. I lived in Cabo San Lucas when it only had one paved street and horses and burros wandered through the center of town; it was inconvenient to live there, but I liked it. Don't like it so much any more, lol.

Mazatlan also has its own gringo newspaper, as do a few other Mexican cities I know of. The place where the most expats live in Mexico is the Guadalajara/Lake Chapala area, by far. (In that area you can own property outright just as you do in the States, whereas along the coasts you own your property via a bank trust; you own it, but the bank holds the title in trust for you for a 50-year period [renewable].)

Retirees need to think in terms of affordability, health care (very important), and preferred lifestyle. In terms of health care, Guadalajara, Mazatlan, PV and Los Cabos stand out. San Carlos/Guyamas is an hour away from a fine health care system in Hermosillo, though it is not "American", and little San Felipe on the Sea of Cortez side of the Baja has a first class little hospital with the added advantage of being fairly near the California border cities of Calexico and El Centro.

I certainly wouldn't choose Manzanillo as my preferred vacation spot, but for living it is quite fine. I know that some percentage of PV expats who are disenchanted with how big and crowded PV has gotten are now looking at Manzanillo as an alternative.

Acapulco. Ah, Acapulco. Once the darling of the jet set. Its decline began with the rise of Cancun and Los Cabos, which gave foreigners brand new fancy places to visit. I dislike Cancun, but love Cozumel; dislike Cabo San Lucas but love San Jose del Cabo and the East Cape.

And Temecula is pretty fine, too. ;-)

OK....here's a "litmus Test" of sorts to qualify the supposed "parallels" of Mexico as opposed to the USA....Tigerdog seems to be trying to compare the two, so lets try it this way:

Your pulled over for a traffic violation in Mexico: 

A, You accept the ticket he is NOT going to give you 

B, You give the "officer" your nice wrist watch that he is seriously eyeing

C, Drop a "Twenty" on the ground and tell him to have a nice day 

ANSWER: C is most correct,  B is almost correct

Now here in the good ol USA you get pulled over for a traffic violation:

A. Sign the ticket  he is most definitely going to give you.

B. Get ready to be strong armed by the traffic laws and their penalties if you contest it. Expect to spend 5 G's Minimum !

C. Rearange your ENTIRE life 8 weeks from now to appear in court and waste most of the day. Oh and dont forget, spend 22 dollars for parking 6 blocks away

D, drop a "twenty" on the ground and tell the cop to have a nice day

ANSWER: A-B-C are correct, D will land you in jail....

Come to think of it, maybe the system in Mexico is better ! Its certainly more efficient and definitely way cheaper.

I love Mexico, I spend a LOT of time and a LOT of money there, I just wouldnt retire there thats all. 

You made me grin.

I'm not trying to compare the two countries, though, just pointing out that Mexico is not all bad and the USA is not all good.

However, your analogy is not quite correct. You should never feed the beast with mordida (the "little bite")-- unless you're just in such a hurry that you'd rather contribute to the corruption than take the correct steps.

Your pulled over for a traffic violation in Mexico:

A, You accept the ticket he is NOT going to give you

B, You give the "officer" your nice wrist watch that he is seriously eyeing

C, Drop a "Twenty" on the ground and tell him to have a nice day

ANSWER: C is most correct, B is almost correct

The correct answer is D: You very politely insist on being taken to the police station immediately to pay your fine. One of 2 things is likely to happen: either you deserved the fine/ticket and the cop will take you there (where you will pay a small amount and be outta there within half an hour); or he was trying to extort you and after some complaining and further attempts to extort you, he will let you go.

This kind of behavior among cops is especially noticeable around Christmas time, when they are trying to get extra money for Christmas presents (they're poorly paid). I have yet to give a bribe to a cop, but they'll never stop trying as long as people are willing to drop that 20 on the ground.

Come to think of it, maybe the system in Mexico is better! Its certainly more efficient and definitely way cheaper.

In reality it's no more corrupt, either. :)

As I said (somewhere), retiring in Mexico (or any foreign country) is not for everyone.

Isn't it well understood that, bonds and stock markets outrank real estate in returns when averaged over 20-30+ years?

Assuming thats true for a minute - can we start off by looking at Mexico as more an inexpensive place to live than an needing investment strength? So at the very least you want a place to escape to that costs you little... is there anything affordable enough for your average person looking for an escape(someone with disposable income) from a lease perspective where investment returns don't even matter? Say something that costs 100-500(without having a wild dog chew on your leg while your sleeping) a month? That you can go to anytime, any day, for as long as you want? Maybe its called a hotel... but why not lease a small place not worry about investment and take a $1000+/month that you'd spend to live anywhere else and stick it in a bond or something and let it do its thing..

I guess it's smart to find max investment with smallest costs, duh.. but I'm just wondering if the costs(inc. upfront) in Mexico can be so low that investment considerations can be mostly excused?

can we start off by looking at Mexico as more an inexpensive place to live than an needing investment strength?

In my opinion that's exactly how most people should look at it.

You can find places to rent/lease at the higher end of your budget ($400 to $500) if you don't need anything fancy or too modern, but you really have to look. Most such places will be found outside of tourist areas of cities, away from the coast, where more Mexicans live than gringos. And before you take that step you should find the area of Mexico that you really like the most and feel comfortable in. Exploration can be fun. ;-)

That said, if you want to stay close to the US border I would suggest looking in Ensenada, where you can find much better deals because it is not a tourist hot spot. Across the Sea of Cortez you might also try Guaymas, next door to San Carlos, Sonora. Guaymas is the Mexican city that is sister to gringoized San Carlos. (Good fishing there!)

However, you can even find things within your budget in expensive places like Los Cabos if you really look. For instance, in Cabo San Lucas the Coromuel condos and Roca Vista are both very inexpensive. Roca Vista is studio "condos" which you can rent for around $35 per night or anywhere from $350 to $500 a month (depending on whether you want cable TV); Coromuel is well located with a restaurant onsite, and though the units are small and inhabited mainly by Mexicans they are perfectly acceptable (I lived there once many years ago), it's only a few minute walk to downtown Cabo and rents very cheap. (You can buy a unit at either place for under $50,000 as another option)

Puerto Vallarta, Manzanillo, Mazatlan-- all have very inexpensive places for rent, but again, you have to take the time and make the effort to find them. And you can't be too picky about the amenities offered.

Stay away from Mexico, for the next few years as far as investment goes.

A. Mexico's social programs that keep the society together are completely dependent on it's oil monopoly Pemex http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pemex.

B. Pemex soon will face a revenue crisis as Cantarell continues to crash http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2006/11/2...

C. Defending ones vacation home against an angry, hungry and rioting populace is not a good time.

A great place for a vacation though.