San Diego Housing Bubble News and Analysis

Seems like you need to decode the question a little more if you want people to vote.

I can't make heads or tails of what you are asking.

Additional info:
Mahogany= San Marcos Schools, $280/mo mello, $90/mo HOA (parks)
Rockledge= Encinitas Schools, $120/mo mello, $250/mo HOA (gym, pools, community center, parks)

I'm asking which you would buy. A 3800 sq ft house in Old Creek Ranch (San Marcos) or a 2400 sq ft house in La Costa Oaks (Carlsbad)? Both are new construction and asking the same price ~$650K.

Have you seen the pricing yet on Rockledge? I've been waiting for it to come out, all I've heard is it starts in the low 600's.

We've been going back on the same issue. Lots of house for the house in mahogany. But San Marcos schools. The elem. & middle don't bother me, but I do have questions/concerns about San Marcos High.

If you know the pricing for each floor plan in Rockledge I'd love to hear it! Thanks!

I don't have pricing on Rockledge... just guessing. I think if they're "low 600-mid 700's" (which is on there website) then I'm just ball parking that they will be comparable to Mahogany pricing. Of course it'll be dependent on the lots too.

But aren't there resale homes in Mahogany in the 500's? Will be interesting to see what Rockledge ends up being priced at, and how fast they sell. Anyone know how fast Copperwood across the street is selling since they opened their models? Went the first day and they were busy with lookers.

There are resales in the neighborhood below Mahogany (Shadetree st)in the 500s, they are not part of the Mahogany community. I'm afraid that's where the new ones being released now in Mahogany are headed. Higher up in San Elijo, 3000+ sq ft homes built around 2006 have dropped into the high 400's. Scary stuff...

Is it Mahogany or Rich Mahogany? I'd never live in a development called Mahogany. But Rich Mahogany? Probably. Especially if Ron Burgundy was my neighbor.

(How do they let some of these names make it past the approval stage?)

Unless you have 3 kids and an au pair / live-in mother-in-law, those additional 1400 sf in Mahogany are just expensive empty space that needs to be heated, cooled and cleaned.

I live in a 3100 sf house. In my opinion, that's more house than 90% of Americans need. We have a big household (bigger than most), but everyone has a room, I have a 15x15 office, there's a dining room that's currently unused because we tore off the carpet and didn't have a chance to replace it yet, our master bedroom is so large that we don't know how to fill it with furniture, and our garage is bigger than the apartment I lived in before I got married.

If you don't have a 6+ person household, a better choice would be between a new 2400 sf house in La Costa Oaks for 650k and a 5-7 year old 2400 sf house in San Elijo Hills for mid to high 400's.

Which one should you choose - really depends on your situation. LCO schools are more challenging than SEH schools, and that could be a good thing as well as a bad thing. In my opinion, truly strong & talented kids would be better off in LCO and more normal kids are more likely to succeed in SEH.

Consider this, for example. If your kid wants to get a science/math degree from a good university, he will most likely want to take AP Calculus and AP Statistics in high school. (The number of AP classes taken, especially the ones relevant to his future education, is an important factor for university admissions) In order to be allowed to take AP Calculus or AP Statistics in San Dieguito school district (which includes all coastal county from Carmel Valley to Encinitas and parts of Carlsbad), he will need to get into the honors track when he's still in middle school, some time around 6th grade. If he's really talented, that's not a problem. If he's not - the overall level of San Dieguito students is relatively high to begin with - getting into the honors track is harder than it would be in a more "regular" school district. Besides, a non-elite school district, say, SMUSD, wouldn't have such silly requirements anyway.

Eugene,
Have you checked out Pasado in Del Sur? Same Mela Roos, but starting 550 for about the same amount of land/house. Not sure where you work. It's much closer if you work in the golden triangle.

http://piggington.com/pasado_at_del_sur_...

I have to assume that it's not addressed to me but to the original poster. Myself I'm not in the market for a house any more, I don't have any plans to move in the next 10 years or so (unless my employer finally goes under and I have to move to Seattle...)

That is slightly misleading, the lowest 3000+ closing in San Elijo to date was somewhere around 540. There's one short sale that's been listed at 495 since forever and one REO that just got listed for 475 and is sure to start a bidding war that takes it into 500's.

Ditto what Eugene said. Don't forget to add the cost of backyard landscaping to new construction costs.

Oh yeah, have you checked out Trieste by Warmington in LCG?

Eugene,
Thank-you for the info on the schools. My oldest is heading into middle school this fall and am interested in how the middle and high schools rate. greatschools.net only tells me so much, I really like hearing from others.

And we are one of those families that could really use the extra sq footage of mahagony. 4 kids, a husband that works from home quite often, and grandparents/relatives that visit a lot.

ooops,
uneven. :)

My agent was talking with them at Rockledge
they told her there would be some real nice incentive packages once they open.Of course I'm sure they tell that to everyone..I thought old creek ranch went to La Costa schools?

1874 shadetree sold should be in escrow but listing agent is a wack job so no clue but price
was 525K Plus $4600 to the second loan.
that home was just over 3400SF and super clean.
it could foreclose set to auction the 16th and with the crappy agent they got it might.

Eugene,
Thanks for your advice. I think it makes a lot of sense.
choazz,
Old Creek Ranch is in San Marcos SD. Thanks for the info on the Shadetree house. I still think that Old Creek ranch and san elijo hills market is soft. I heard 6 of 9 copperwoods were sold in 3 weeks. I think that says a lot for la costa oaks and the pricing of them. All I know about incentives in rockledge is $10K towards closing with preferred lender. Did you hear anything else?

Old Creek Ranch does go to a La Costa School - La Costa Meadows in the SM school district. Same one LCG feeds into.

Walked that REO about an hour ago - very large house that requires all rooms to be painted, fridge, washer dryer and range (they ripped it out). The backyard is a sloped rock garden and the part thats flat isnt all that big. The front yard needs landscaping as well.

It went pending today and had 11 offers on it as of 2 days ago.

Uneven
SEH market is on fire! Its as simple as that.
sdr

Anyone want the one on Luminara thats a short sale? Its a one loan sale - bank accepted our offer but I think we are going to pass having looked at it.

sdrealtor,
please define "on fire!" when I see 11 offers on a home priced around $130/ft, I'd describe it as a "fire sale". Mahogany has had 8 new homes for sale for about 6 weeks. Atherton is trying desperately to unload a handful of nearly completed homes and Luminara is practically giving away their models. With so many shorts and REOs on the market, when will price declines in SEH end? I think there will always been bottom feeders trying to catch the falling knife. Copperwood actually closing sales on 7 of 9 in 3 weeks @ about $250/ft is closer to a hot market in my opinion.

That's true. I guess when I hear a market is "on fire" I think rising or stable prices and when I hear "fire sale" I think everything must go at low low prices. I agree 11 offers is a better sign for prices stabilizing then none, but 6 months ago $575000 would've lured 11 offers or more in my opinion.

Here's another opinion- 6 months ago that 475K house would not have drawn ANY offers. Inventory in SEH was about 50-70% higher back then. 6 months ago was when you actually had quality inventory.

No offers? Next street over they got one offer for $649K for ~3500 sq ft in Jan. My problem is with the hype with language like "on fire" Even without the recent rise in rates, I think it's a long haul till realtors can get away with comments like that.

Wait till the off-season to buy. Buy when no one else wants to.

Well we bought in Rockledge, La Costa Oaks. We signed a contract last week. Final decision came down to location location and location. I couldn't get past the strong history of La Costa Oaks values. BTW. We found out that Rockledge community has Mission Estancia Elementary and Diegueno Middle, while Copperwood has La Costa Heights and Oak Crest. All great schools, but Mission was san diego county's only blue ribbon school and Diegueno is supposed to be better than Oak Crest. We really ended up loving the contemporary design and layout of Rockledge, even with the reduced size. And the ocean views are nice too.

I just had to comment on the size question.

We rent a 2800+ house in San Marcos and can't wait to downsize. We have three children, albeit they're 3 and 4. The formal dining area+living room is basically a second play area for the kids, since we are down to one couch there. (The upstairs loft is filled with toys/activities.) The much smaller family room is furnished, but it's mostly just a computer room. If not on the PC, I'm spending most of my time in our 10x12 A/V space. Our dining table is in the kitchen nook area and we still have plenty of room to access garage door etc.

It costs $200+ in the winter to heat the home and that's with a system that doesn't even reach into my kids' rooms, and we're pretty stingy with thermostat. And the cleaning time! I can't imagine having a 3,000+ house, so I wholeheartedly voted for Rockledge.

Of course, I read in the LA Times that Charlie Sheen's family is selling their 4200 sq foot house because it's become too small since his wife gave birth to twins, so ...

For those of you that are looking a Rockledge just a note from the sales person I spoke to. I asked her what the voltage was running in those power lines and she stated that someone had SDGE measure and that it was the equivalent to holding a cell phone to your ear. Take what you want from that but after she told me that I turned around and left....not worth the worry. If it were me I would definately have SDGE come and measure the EMFs from my lot.

We are renting next to high voltage power lines in SEH. They buzz in the morning and buzz at night with the humidity. They are loud and annoying. We will only be here a short time and it would BOTHER me to live here long term. I also worry about the EMF.

My cousin found a great home in Encinitas and the only negative was the power lines in their back yard. I love their location but two months later they both came back and said, "We get what you mean about the power lines it is a lot more annoying on a 24 hour basis as opposed to a walk through before you buy."

Power lines were also a concern for us. But at least this phase is away from them. Not sure what the EMF values are. Will SDG&E actually give you a rating for a lot?

SDGE will come out to your specific lot and measure the EMFs for free. Also, if you use google earth you can get an estimate of how far you are away from the lines.

Deleted

Rock, Scissors, Mahogany?

6 of 9 in Rockledge Phase 1 have been reserved as of Sat. They opened on June 24th. I think they priced them right.

Rockledge Update:
Phase 2 was released Saturday (7/25) with 7 new homes. Move-in expected Dec/Jan. All have either canyon or ocean views, but some are near power lines. Prices are slightly up from Phase 1 pricing. $627K-$727K... 3 are already sold. 7 of 9 Phase 1's have been sold. There are no Plan 1's left in either phase.

Congrats on your new home...Im in the process of trying to sell my home and move to that area...
What can you tell me about Rockledge? Quality?, Incentives ? is everything an upgrade? Landscaping Included? View Lots?
Any info on community appreciated...
In the end are the costs over 700M?
Thanks so much...

Hi Cali,
We were the first to sign a contract and so we were pretty apprehensive about value. We were close to buying in Mahogany (San Marcos/Old creek ranch) because of the size difference for the $ and are so glad we chose Rockledge now that they have been selling so well. Encinitas schools seem to make all the difference in the world.
Let me try to answer some of you questions:
1. They started at $602K (1900sq ft) to 739K (2500sq ft + biggest lot)
2. Phase 2 pricing is about the same, but there are no 1900 (Plan 1) ones left, so cheapest one left is about 630K I think.
3. Pricing includes a lot of upgrades. air conditioning, surround sound, plasma wiring, j-boxes for fans in all roooms, alarm prewire, pest control in walls, undercabinet lighting, jacuzzi tub, sink in laundry room.
Everyone took the standard cabinets, they are nicer than most standards and standard counters are quartz ceasarstone, which I like better than granite. Granite is a small upgrade fee (~$200 I think) They'll also do some decorative tile accents standard too, but we chose to upgrade the baths. All in all, I think you could be very happy taking the house standard. We put tile in the whole downstairs, instead of 1/2 carpet and it cost about $7K... not too bad I think. We went with standard carpet upstairs and down bedroom with upgraded pad ($1K)
4. Front landscaping is included and it looks fair to good.
5. There didn't seem to be a huge view premium on the price only lot size, but Phase 2 will be the last of the highest ones, so future phases will have lower views (partial ocean and canyon on some though, just not as good) All Phase 1 and 2's have pretty killer views.
6. $10K incentive for using their lender(s). There's 2 to pick from (BofA and Wells)
Hope to have you over for the first block party!
= )

You can thank my wife for that product ;)

HA. does it work?

Thank you so much for all the great info...
I live about 2hrs away and maybe this weekend I can go see the models..
Do you know how close the community is to the beach?
All the best....

about 15 minutes... straight down la costa ave.

Yep - quite well. Its up to you to keep the service though after the initial included offering. I wish my next home had it.

cool. how often do you have them blast it?

I think they "charge up" the system once a quarter, accessed on the outside of the home. Her company also offers the spraying for homes without the system. We have had her company spray for ants in the past few years and that stuff works like a charm. They never return.

Best thing for pesky mice in a garage? Glue traps. I have caught three field mice in three days on glue traps. A little peanut butter in the middle and those little dudes are on there within an hour.

Edit - I apologize for taking over the thread. Any further questions on the pest control, send me a private message. Cheers