San Diego Housing Bubble News and Analysis

http://news.aol.com/elections/story/_a/o...

Almost forgot the link.

That's media manipulation if I've ever seen it. The race is still close, but Patrick Leahy (who I heard talking about it on NPR today), a staunch Obama supporter, says "Hillary can't possibly win and should quit". I guess the media has decided who their darling is because they run with that and are now saying Hillary can't win. Ridiculous.

They need 2024 delegates to win. Obama has 1625, Hillary has 1486... So they're both "about 500 delegates away" from winning it. I'd say it's waaaaaaay to early to quit. She's expected to win in Penn. and pick up 158 more delegates, which would put her in the lead. Should Obama quit then?

So if she's your candidate I wouldn't throw in the towel just yet. There are 3 more months of primaries.

Sorry nostradamus, but you've got it wrong. Pennsylvania (as with most or all states) doesn't award all of its delegates to the candidate who wins the primary. It awards its delegates proportionally (or thereabouts - the rules are complex and they differ from state to state). So Clinton won't win anywhere near 158 delegates there. And if you do the math (as lots of pundits have, virtually all coming to the same conclusion):

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/27/opinio...

http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&um=1&t...

it will be almost impossible for Clinton to win enough delegates to have a lead going into the convention. And unless she has more delegates going into the convention (or a lead in the popular vote, which is equally unlikely), the only way she can win is if the super delegates overturn the will of the people. And if that happens, the disgust with the Democratic party will be (justifiably, in my opinion) immense. And I don't see how Clinton can beat McCain after winning the nomination in that fashion.

So all she's doing by staying in the race is increasing the chances a Republican will win, either because she beat up Obama so bad that it hurt his chances against McCain or because she damaged the Democratic Party so badly that it hurts her chances against McCain.

I'd planned on voting for Clinton if she were the nominee (this was before the bailout plans - I'm not so sure I'll vote for a Democrat at all now) but the lack of judgement she's showing right now is very disturbing.

zk, stay with the Dems and vote for Obama in the end. He's our man.

I agree with you zk, I also think she's toast.

I'm not liking all the 'well, we can always poach Obama's pledged delegates', or 'let the Superdelegates decide', or the endless re-referencing of the Jeremiah Wright debacle.
A talking head on one of the cable news channels put it beautifully the other day "every time I think of Hillary, all I see is the Fine Print" -ie she needs to point out the exceptions, rather than looking at the Big Picture, when it comes to her actually winning the nomination 'honestly'.

But - having said all that - there's still 20% of the States that haven't voted yet...and with both FL and MI being out of the running (with lots of mudslinging on both sides about that), its more important than ever to allow the remaining States to have their say.

So, yeah, this whole sorry mess will drag itself on into June. Hillary won't go quietly, not while the chance to pick up a few more delegates in the remaining 10 states still exists.

My only hope is that they start to tone down the bitching - any more James Carville-like 'Judas" comments, and the Dems are in danger of losing a lot of their support.

Has it ever occurred to anybody that Hillary knows she is done. Her strategy is top inflict as much damage to Obama as posible resulting in Obama being defeated in 2008.

Hillary will then come back in 2012 and run against McCain, if he is still alive in 2012.

I think this situation arises from the phrase Bill repeated during the '92 election - 'not until the last dog lies down do I give up.' (or something to that effect)

By giving it all she's got, she's trying to show that she's got the fight in her that Obama tries not to present. For those who base their decisions on what they see on TV, this has the potential to affect their choice. For anyone who doesn't qualify for the IQ under 60 tax deduction - it's appalling.

Did anyone else notice that her primary donors sent the nastygram to Pelosi asking her to keep her nose out of their quest? That would pretty much qualify as sedition IMO.

Sly said:
Has it ever occurred to anybody that Hillary knows she is done.

IIRC, someone on Tim Russert was saying something about her going for the Governorship of NY in 2010, and using it as a stepping-stone for the 2012 presidential elections.

The reasoning being that, because David Paterson is having a motor-mouth problem about his past 'indescretions', he will be out of the running for re-election in 2010.
Hillary bags the Governorship - being the senator from NY will help greatly - she gets enough 'experience' to beat Obama fair and square in 2012, and everyone's happy.

Don't know if its possible, or even probable.

I'm a Dem and have closely followed this race. Supposedly, many Rebubs turned out in record numbers in other states to vote for Obama purely because they think McCain can't win against Hillary, but can defeat Obama. I don't like any of the three candidates. I voted against Bush both times and can tell my kid with a clear conscience, "I didn't do this." I don't care who the nominees are this time. I will vote, but not in the president's race. Disclosures: My mom's dad was in the trenches of WW1 in Europe; my dad fought in Italy in WWII and again in Korea where the bottom of his left leg was shot off; his much younger brother did three Vietnam tours; I have two nephews in Iraq -- one on his third tour, the other on his second.

Apparently not.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/03/29/c...

Clinton rejects calls to quit Democratic race

I love this lady. Single handedly, she's causing enough disruption that McCain might actually stand a chance.

What will be the new tagline? "Read my lips, no new bailouts"? :)

My favorite candidate is still in the race (Ron Paul.)...Ok sort of.

selfportrait

----- Sour grapes for everyone!

McCain is actually ahead of both Clinton and Obama in most polls, gallup, rasmussen, etc. That is simply amazing if you look at the fundamentals of the electorate. Check out this graph on party affiliation

http://pewresearch.org/pubs/773/fewer-vo...

Those numbers are so bad for the Republicans that many conservative talking heads feel it could actually benefit McCain by balancing out what looks to be a blowout in the house and senate races. Still looking at that graph has most republican political operatives with a funny feeling in their stomachs. George Bush is leaving the GOP in shambles. Karl Rove was truly a political master especially pulling off the 2004 elections but what good does that type of politics do if you do not build a lasting majority. Totally short sided outlook if you ask me. Here is what I think, whoever wins this election will last 4 years tops. We are literally looking at a mess in every direction that you look.

The "winner" will probably live to regret it based on the domestic and international problems. Instead of Hoovervilles will it be Hillaryvilles or Obamavilles or McCainvilles? Better to sit this one out.

I heard Hilary speak on 2 occasions during school in the early to mid 90s. I just don't like her. After hearing her talk, I actually felt sorry for her husband having to deal with this on a daily basis. I’ll bet she can perpetual witch type of wife. Personally, I just would (for example) not be interested to meet her and talk for a while.
Even though most people don’t like President Bush, I remember when he came to SD after the fires. People wanted to meet him and I was one of them. Just to shake his hand or see him in person, people thought it was pretty cool. I would be interested to meet Obama but I can’t say that about Hilary. I just don't like her.

I attended the CA State Democratic Convention this weekend and I think it's getting ugly and frustrating.

First off, the superdelegates need to get off their @#$@ and make a decision. As party insiders, what else do you need to know in order to decide one way or another.

Second, what the hell was Carville thinking? This loyalty stuff is total BS. I didn't know blind loyalty was something we prized in our government. I'm pretty sure the "loyalty" mantra under the Bush administration has shown the failure of that doctrine. "Loyalty" was the reason we gave those inane contracts to Halliburton. I still haven't gotten a great sense of why we outsourced part of the war. I didn't know that the Iraq War was suppose to be a profit center for some Americans.

These Hillary supporters are turning into Ann Coulter clones. I love the constant chatter of Obamabots and of Obama supporters being brain-washed. Considering that Obama has a much higher percentage of the college educated Democrats supporting him. I'd say that the labeling is incorrect. You don't see many (or any) bloggers talking about the femi-Nazis or white trash component of Hillary supporters (oops, did I just let that out?).

A lot of us are fed up with the politics as usual crap. For those Clinton supporters that threaten to withhold money from the DNCC, do you see how much money Obama is raising grassroots-wise?

He's upsetting the status quo and that scares some people. I'm not naive enough to state that this couldn't turn into an Animal Farm situation with Obama, but I don't see how the next 4 years with him can be any worse than the last 16 years of bickering partisanship.

To use a sports analogy, Hillary is down 3-1 in a seven game series. Obama more or less has it wrapped up, but there's no reason not to play out the last game or two. The main reason for the renewed "Hillary should quit" media chatter is this huge gap between primaries. The "Obama's old Pastor" story seems to be running out of gas, as is the Spitzer-prostitute sotry. The media needs to talk about something. Hillary is almost mathematically out of it, but technically still has a shot.

Really, if the party decides an extended primary season isn't good for it, maybe it should change the rules to require all the states to have their primary by the end of March or something next time around.

I would be interested to meet Obama but I can’t say that about Hilary. I just don't like her.

Most people don't. She's shown a very ugly side to herself with these vicious attacks. She took the dirty way out: attack the person and not the issue. I'm not saying that's not what most politicians do, but Hillary just got out of hand. She can fight on all she wants, she already has a fork stuck in her.

As far as Spitzer, I haven't commented on his actions, so I'll do so now. In the first place, a hypocrit and a criminal. In the second place, it's hard to fathom how a "family man" can be so dirty as to go out and sleep with prostitutes and insist that he not use a condom AND crawl back into the his wife's bed and put his appendage inside her vulnerable body. He could have infected her with anything under the sun.

For her to stand beside that man at his press conferences, the only thing missing from her appearance was the word "DOORMAT" stamped across her forehead in big letters.

Also, Spitzer looks just like a "telletubie". Those fictional, child-friendly extra-terrestial creatures my son used to watch on tv as a toddler. (shiver).