Looking for Advice on selling Arroyo Vista home and buying in Bressi Ranch

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Submitted by cf on June 23, 2008 - 4:23pm

Hi Everyone,

I just stumbled accross this site today while looking up some info on Bressi Ranch in Carlsbad, and all I can say is what an amazing source of info!

I'm looking for opinions on whether I should sell my current home given today's market conditions.

A little about my situation: my wife and I bought our current house in the Arroyo Vista development in Carlsbad 92009 in the 1st phase of development in 2002. We love the area/our neighbors, the schools and our house. We have 2 kids, our older son went through all the Encinitas schools (La Costa Heights, Oak Crest and La Costa Canyon). We have a 3 year old son that goes to a small preschool in Olivenhain. Our financial situation is stable, my wife and I both work stable jobs and have a household income of about 220k/year. We have a 30 yr fixed mortgage of about 500k at 5.5%. We have a 2nd mortgage of 130k, of which 70k will be paid off by 2013.

Recently we have been talking about captalizing on the housing market decline and selling our house, renting for a year or so, then jumping on a foreclosure/short sale in a slightly less expensive area relative to Arroyo Vista (such as Bressi Ranch or maybe the Carlsbad school district portion of La Costa Greens). By doing this (at a purchase price of 700k) we figure we would be ahead potentially $1,500 or more per month in cash flow. Also we may be able to invest some of our equity in an investment property in addition to the new house.

I spoke with a North County realtor friend and she indicated she thinks there will be alot of foreclosures in Bressi Ranch due to the fact that most were sold at the peak in 2005 with many ARM etc loans.

Some things we're struggling with:

1) How much lower will the market go? (don't we all want to know!) If it does not go down too much further, I think it would not be worth it to sell.

2) How much of a difference between Encinitas School District and Carlsbad?

3) Quality of life difference between Arroyo Vista and Bressi Ranch? Arroyo Vista closer to ammenities, Bressi Ranch has community pool which we like.

4) Quality of Bressi Ranch homes? Lennar builder? We are very happy with our Continental Homes Arroyo Vista home.

The bottom line is we don't need to sell, but keep thinking this is a golden opportunity to capitalize on the down market/foreclosure situation.

Any thoughts/opinions would be much appreciated!

cf

‹ I have finally arrived to San Diego Google maps street view active ›
I say just keep it, if you
Submitted by PadreBrian on June 23, 2008 - 4:59pm.

I say just keep it, if you don't need to move.
You have a great loan at a great price. Good work.

BUT, if you are looking for a bigger house or a smaller house with less taxes, and want to be liquid..sale away. But price it to sale.

I know lots of people there,
Submitted by sdrealtor on June 23, 2008 - 5:44pm.

I know lots of people there, most of whom can easily afford their home. I know plenty of people in Bressi most of whom cant afford their home. Do you want to live with the real deal or a bunch of stressed out poseurs? I would keep it. It's a great neighborhood, well built homes (for tract homes that is), great location and lots of nice people live there (at least my friends are).

I also think you'll be better
Submitted by Bugs on June 23, 2008 - 6:05pm.

I also think you'll be better off staying put. I don't think Bressi is that great a location. There is air traffic noise and it is surrounded on two sides by industrial and office uses.

I'm not at all impressed with either the designs or the build quality of the homes, either. As sdr said I think the neighborhood you're in will remain more desireable over the long term. If nothing else it will probably be a little more stable due to the number of original buyers staying put.

The other aspect you should be mindful of is that nobody knows what the mortgage interest rates or qualifying criteria will be like by the time the market gets to your target price. Bressi might look okay to you at $1500/month less, but what if it only turned out to be $500 less?

Thanks everyone for the
Submitted by cf on June 24, 2008 - 4:57pm.

Thanks everyone for the responses. I think a strong argument could be made to sell or to stay either way, that's why it has been a difficult decision for us.

Also in my original post I definitely sounded as if we were focused in on mainly Bressi Ranch but would consider many other communities in 92009 (La Costa Valley would probably be best for us besides where we're at right now in Arroyo Vista, but not sure if we would be able to buy for 700k). Bressi Ranch seems like it may have some good deals due to the fact they were mostly sold during the peak 2005 time period, so this is why I mentioned it, and there are already homes there in the 700k range.

The thing I keep going back to is the fact that the home prices vs incomes and rents is so out of whack in SD county. Doesn't this correction need to continue to bring these things more in balance?It seems foolish to not sell a house for 900k+ that we bought for 600k. If the correction continues and prices get down to a solid 200-250/sqft we will have put ourselves in a great position. I guess the downside is if there is not much further correction in the market beyond where it is now, we will end up in a less desireable position (financial and house/neighborhood) as we are now.

SD Realtor, do you think 230-250/sqft in La Costa Valley will happen in the next year or so?

My take is Jamul Bro. Is this
Submitted by farbet on June 24, 2008 - 5:05pm.

My take is Jamul Bro.
Is this a teaser quiz or what?

La Costa Valley -
Submitted by Veritas on June 24, 2008 - 5:39pm.

La Costa Valley - Breakthrough?
by waiting for bottom on June 12, 2008 - 8:48am

[quote=waiting for bottom]2282 Paseo Saucedal - $699k!! Listed (again) yesterday. These models were going for $899K back in 2005.

2283 Paeso Saucedal is at $799K (Same model), as is Corte Limon - a larger house on a culdesac.

2282 is not the best house in the world but for me this seems like a breakthrough.

SEH one year ago was in this situation: inventory building, sales slowing...a below-average house drops price and sells, then comps adjust and next thing you know $150K is shed pretty fast.

I dont think you will find a
Submitted by sdrealtor on June 24, 2008 - 6:38pm.

I dont think you will find a great or even better than average home under 3,000 sq ft in LCV for $250/sq ft in the next year which would hit you target prices though you might in a couple more years.

BTW, Corte Limon is in escrow for about $300/sq ft and there were multiple offers.