San Diego Housing Bubble News and Analysis

Depends on what street. A teardown on Hymettus on just under 1 acre sold for about $2M at the peak.

Is there anything on it?

I have a friend that knows more about land values in that area then anyone on the planet. If he'd like an honest, knowledgable opinion I can help him get in touch with her.

There's a 10,000 sf lot off of Sparta that's been listed for $399K. It's really the backyard of a house, and they split the lot and sold of the house separately with just a small space around the back.

To access the lot, you have to go up a private driveway.

I think it's still on the market.

Of course, a more desirable lot would be worth a bit more, but I would guess around $300K-$500K right now. If it's at the top of a hill, and not so close to the RR tracks, it might be worth a bit more.

IMHO, land value is and will be going down. If your friend wants to sell, it would be a good time to do so now.

As you probably know the value of the lot is basically the value of whatever can be built on it less costs for construction, loan, plans, permits, carrying, and sales as well as a a minimum profit margin for a builder/developer (10-20%). The wild card on this lot is the cost to bring utilites to the site. 300' of water, sewer, electric, gas, phone lines will likely be very expensive and will greatly decrease the value of this lot. What is the value of homes in the area?

Thanks for the replies.Sorry to be so vague but anonymity is a must. Nothing has ever been built on the parcel.

sdr I may contact you one day about your friend.

Mike the houses vary about as much as can be, from shacks to pretty significant design and construction. You are right about the utilities and this site is going to require trench plate all the way up. It is a little tight and there is some traffic to several houses. I think the land is probably worth about as much as the worst house on the same quality view lot in the area.

Anyway thanks, I see we can't get too far without a street and cross street.

As far as land prices dropping goes, In the areas I am more familiar with I don't see that. I see some relative deals to be had where someone is bailing on a project and has already done some work on the infrastructure. There are some cheap looking lots but when I investigate them they have one big shortcoming or another and the owners will be lucky to unload them. Mostly volume has gone off a cliff. Properties that sell may go a some discount to previous highs but most people just won't sell since real distress is rare as most land is held free and clear. I am talking about single custom home type lots not tract subdivisions which are more apparently subject to steep price cuts. sdr and SDR?

Rus
It would be my pleasure to help a Jamulian;)
My friend truly is an expert who understands everything about land including building, grading, utilities, set backs, height restrictions, biological requirements, mitigation, density bonuses, zoning, permitting in the city of Encinitas etc. Best of all she's a real stright shooter and very realistic (i.e not prone to pie in the sky valuations).

sdr

Your friend should have sold it anytime during the last 3 years. He'll die before land values go back up to those levels. Sounds like either the land is very expensive to build on or some old codger owns it. I'm siding with the codger because he doesn't want to pay the couple hundred bucks to get it professionally appraised.

Don't think I can't return a favor. I know you are dieing to break into the Jamul market. Nice little ranchette for the kids?

Actually, I could come up with something on this Leucadia lot. It probably would be the "professional" thing to do to defer to someone like a local expert. My friend has been around the block with RE. Probably going to try to sell it in the union trib after he gets a good fix on price and hire a lawyer to do the contract.

You are right Brian. Nicest old codger you ever met too. The lot is a piece of cake.

I think the land is probably worth about as much as the worst house on the same quality view lot in the area.

This is pretty unrealistic, as the scraper would sit on an improved lot, with full utilities to the curb. 300 feet is a loooooooong way to go at current prevailing rates.

Combine that with the fact that money for land/construction is NONEXISTANT at the moment through normal channels, and today will probably have to be a cash purchase, I would not have high hopes of making any real money on a piece of property like that.

I love old guys ...my granddad was one of those guys that didn't want to sell...ever. He could have sold his prime lots while he and grandma were in retirement and lived like sun-belt royally. My uncle, after grandad past away, sold most off for pennies on the dollar in the 90's. The absolute worst time to sell land.

Thinking back though, maybe owning prime land made him feel good.

Brian, You proabably have heard the theory that all wealth is in land. I think that is how these old timers feel.

Rus there was a pretty nice lot on Caudor that sold awhile back for 800k but it was much larger then the one you mentioned. Also it did have a home on the lot that was a scapper. I had an investor who bid on it but our offer didn't get accepted. If you check the MLS the home closed escrow a few months back.

If your friend could find an anchor tenant renting the property like "The Plant Lady" it could be worth a fortune.