San Diego Housing Bubble News and Analysis

Not to mention that public builders self-finance their construction so they probably don't use construction insurance.

For example, I am pretty sure that DR Horton ate the $5 million loss when their condo project burned in Escondido (Paramount) last year.

I don't think that anyone said builders lit the fires. But people will always see opportunity in tragedy. That's the way it's always been.

I can see Realtors and builders saying, "now is the time to buy because supply is limited."

Contractors may say, "well I'm really busy now so if you want me to work on your patio now, it'll be $XXX."

I suggested builders might have lit the fires!

An interesting experiment, after all this is over, is figure out what % of destroyed properties were in some state of foreclosure. Now compare that to the average for the same areas.

I wonder what the results will be?

Your crackpot conspiracy theory might make sense if you tracked the fires from their origin suggesting that an owner started a fire in their home but it got out of control. I am pretty sure that no one has the ability to control the path of a wildfire in 50 mph winds.

Maybe you can tell me how many foreclosures are in the Harris Ranch Road area in Potrero, the Witch Creek area or the Rice Canyon area. I would say less than .5%.

kewp I understand what you are saying but I just disagree to the nth degree... To me there is more merit saying an out of work firefighter started the fires cuz he needed work!

Could it be that a distressed homeowner torched his house during this tragedy? It would not be out of the realm of possibility but as Rich pointed out in another thread, anyone that does do that may be in for a woeful surprise when they make a claim.

"An interesting experiment, after all this is over, is figure out what % of destroyed properties were in some state of foreclosure. Now compare that to the average for the same areas."

Arrrrrrrrgggggg get me some tape to tape wrap around my head so it doesn't explode!!!

SD Realtor

Am I the only one who has noticed of late that many firemen stand around doing nothing while houses catch on fire? I live up here in OC and have been watching the local OC and LA county fires and man it is quite evident from the helicopter tV shots. 5 or 6 standing around while structures burn. I'm starting to question this G0d-like stature we give them. Sure I know many are hard working and put themselves in harms way, but this crap I'm seeing on TV is bad publicity. Some guy on the radio today who lost his place in the Irvine/Santiago fire just ripped the Fire depts collective ass for not making any effort to save his place. He said they just up and left. After it burned to the ground they came back and were everywhere. I'm beginning to wonder if the FD is getting a little lazy depending too much on air power to fight these things. Anyone else noticing this? How bout down in SD county?

Glad to hear you are back home, SD Realtor. Thank you for addressing these posts.

I'm watching this from Michigan and cannot comprehend what is going on. This is of Katrina proportions. It seems so unreal.

The rest of the country is wondering why anyone would be crazy enough to live in this disaster prone area, kinda lumping San Diego with New Orleans (hurricanes) or Oklahoma (tornado alley). San Diego can easily go up in flames with no conspiracy help.

I wish all of you evacuees the best. Please keep piggington informed so we know how you're doing.

Statistically arson as a percentage is very low on causes of wild fires. There are numerous natural and inadvertent human causes. If you were going to play the odds a conspiracy theory would not be a good bet. Though it is something we will never know for sure unless there is a smoking gun or confession.

However I am a firm believer in

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occam's_Razor

Later on we'll conspire

as we sit by the fire...

I doubt very much any "serious" theory forwarded that this REALLY has anything to do w/ the RE market.

That however did not preempt me from mentioning it, for some minds indeed naturally gravitate toward these theories.

A few general comments:

The idea is to light the wildfire first, before torching the homes. Or take advantage of the naturally occurring fire to torch a property.

This is a common practice in urban arson, torch a nearby abandoned building just prior to the real target.

Re: Fires started by firefighters.

http://www.state.sc.us/forest/lear.htm

Google 'firefighter arson' for *LOTS* of hits.

For the record this is *purely* speculation on my part. I would still like to see the data I mentioned after the smoke clears.

How many homes are on the market in SD county?
you guys can help me here on this one... i dunno

How many homes in SD county burned down? lets say 1500..
Of the 1500 homes that burned down, how many were for sale? lets again over estimate and say 1 out of 4.

So.. we can see that there will be at most, a temporary reduction of inventory by about... 375 homes, max... hmm not exactly going to change market dynamics one way or the other.

What this will do is cost city and county tax dollars, slow business sales and growth via closures, delays, displacement, etc., and sadly cost those who have lost their homes additional expenses that they may not ever be reimbursed for. (insurance can't cover every expense that one accrues due to structure fire right?)

I can't see this helping an already hurt housing or job market much. The few construction jobs gained by these tragedies will be a wash at best to the losses accrued by other San Dieagans one way or another.

Matt,

I see sales of washing machines, refrigerators, furniture, etc coming into play. Figure 50K a house times 2000 homes and you are talkig about 100 million in sales. Can't see how this is not going to stimulate the economy in the short run.

These sales you mention may help Coscto, Home Depot, Sears, etc, but it won't really be going into the SD economy. I know a few people who will be out of work for weeks. They won't be compensated. This is lost income. Businesses in SD have shut down for a few days. Commerce has halted in many cases, and may remain slightly slower for a while. All I'm saying is that the gains you can see easily, are easily countered negatively by losses that are harder to see.

BTW at least one Costco had to close its doors for a day or two. They usually sell $800k per day. It effects everyone.

Ray, how dare you see $$$ signs when people are suffering? These fine folks are fathers, mothers, sons, daughters, uncles, aunts, nieces, nephews, Labradors and German shepherds.

(sarcasm off).

The Real Estate boosters will condemn others for discussing the outcome of this fire and questioning what led to this tragedy. But they will also milk it and milk it 'til the cow drops dead. Be sure to listen to the REIC talk in the next few months.

kewp I mentioned the firefighter arson event because it is much more probable... I went to high school with a guy named Jack Conger... he was kind of a sketchy dude... well turns out that he grew up to a sketchy adult and indeed started a pretty big fire in Topanga many years back... just to get work. He was a firefighter.

As far as checking the statistics... if we had a fire in downtown san diego it would have a huge statistical spike... a ton of homes that burned were foreclosures or short sales, imagine that! If we have a monster fire in Rancho Santa Fe we will not... So I don't really understand the statistics you are pointing to...

If a community burns then a community burns... if you take the number of homes in that community and then make a ratio of the number of distressed homes in it, then your measurements are meaningless because even distressed communities like Lemon Grove for instance have crappy pockets and not crappy pockets. Are you saying that if there are 10,000 homes in a community and 1000 are distressed then there better be a 1 in 10 ratio of burned homes as well? It is purely very much of a reach to try to use ratios like you are thinking to find a so called smoking gun. Really, I do not dispute that maybe some random idiots torched thier home while homes around his burned (though I highly doubt it) but I still think it is a bigtime reach.

SD Realtor

I am not going to speculate whether setting the fires was a result of a RE conspiracy or not...that would be going against Occam's Razor principle and is just a waste of my time.

What I do question is how multiple fires (as many as 5 or more) cropped up between the US/Mexican border and Los Olivos (by Solvang in Santa Barbara County) in a 24 hour time period. The Sedgewick Fire in Los Olivos started at 6am on 10/21, while the Harris Fire is purported to have started at 9:30am on 10/21. These two fires are no less than 242.71 miles apart!!! And all the fires in between started at around the same time. WHAT ARE THE ODDS OF THIS HAPPENING!!! All of my calculations were taken from the map on the LA Times website here and measured in Google Earth: http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-fir...

The kibitzer will say that the conditions were ripe for a wildfire: hot weather, hot and dry Santa Ana winds, no rain. Intuition, however, rules out the possibility that ALL of these fires were spawned by natural causes at or around the same time and nearly 250 miles apart!!! What are all the ways in which fires can be started naturally, and what is the probability that ALL of these fires were created in such a manner? Did lightning possibly strike ALL of these areas within a 24 hour time period? I know, maybe a bunch of lightning bugs all farted at the same time!

I don't know the answer, but my gut tells me that something smells awfully fishy here. This tragedy has the words "fire bug(s)" written all over it.

There is no doubt in my mind that a lot of this is arson. By who and for what reason is yet to be seen, if ever.
But with the construction industry in such a slump this is sure to put a lot of home builders back to work.
There was at least one instance that I heard about where a home suddenly burst into flames on the La Jolla Indian reservation. I guess it was miles from the nearest fire but has now caused a lot of damage to the area. I think the authorities will be looking into that guys finances to help figure that one out.
Stay safe.

Yes I would heartily agree that this or most of these fires at least to me appear to be started by humans...I would speculate that none of them were naturally started. With that said, if you go back and look at previous "firestorms" even in 2003, there are ALMOST ALWAYS multiple fires that crop up... From Malibu to Irvine to San Diego the fact that they all happened at the same time is absolutely no surprise to me... Seriously though, look back in history and you will see that it is almost uncanny how that happens... To me it is just the way that sick people get thier rocks off... pretty darned sad. I know that is pretty cynical but...

Again, most anyone who is a native Southern Californian can attest that firestorms are rarely a single fire and most often are multiple and in some case many fires that flare up within the same day or two.

SD Realtor

my gut tells me that something smells awfully fishy here

Your analysis is mathematically first rate; the only problem is, these types of tandem fires have happened, like, a dozen times, in my own memory. All during these periods of hot dry winds in early fall. That seems to suggest natural causes rather than a regular epidemic of "fire bugs". After all, in south east they regularly get hit by multiple tornadoes per season and multiple hurricanes/flooding per season. Can't be "Water bugs" or "Wind bugs".

SD Realtor should have a good laugh indeed. The conspiracy theoriests don't seem to comprehend the basics of home owner insurance or construction insurance for that matter. These insurance policies only cover the value of the structure, which is likely only half or less of the property value. So an upside down owner with a burnt down house is still upside down even after the insurance payment -- as the insurance is likely less than half of what he owes in mortgage. Indeed he is likely even more deep in the debt since the land is likely worth a lot less without a structure on it and meanwhile he has lost the use of his home as a shelter. These are simply pathetic from an economic point of view and a lot worse from basic human decency.

"Later on we'll conspire

as we sit by the fire..."

Real funny, people are losing their lives and their homes.
Not funny.

real estate money is only one of a myriad of reasons to start a fire. but there's no reason for sanctimonious denial.

At least one fire is being attributed to arson, but no motivation has yet been given.
http://www.knbc.com/news/14392969/detail...

IMHO I doubt the fires were housing related, but trying to use logical arguments to refute bad RE as a cause is kinda ironic. Pointing out that the insurance money won't save you is probably lost on people that are in deep housing trouble since they already proved to lack any sense when they bought a house.
For their sake, I hope nobody torched their house for money. Given the deaths involved and national attention, I doubt any intentional fires will go unsolved. Murder two is a tad worse than BK.
Anyways,
An excellent source for fire info:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_...

-one muggle

Illegals probably started these fires

I would not be surprised at all.

Not only did the Society Whose ARMs are about to reset (SWARMAR) start the fires, they used Hillary Clinton's Satanic powers to direct the Santa Ana winds toward the properties that are mortgaged upside down and under foreclosure!

Only those with St. Joseph statues buried in their front yards are safe!

Rockysan99 - Are you serious? Wow, you are so naive!

Since you know everything about fighting a structure fire, I'd suggest you become the newest firefighter!

They are doing the best to protect the structures but I think there is a point of no return in which they can't do anything more to help.

My parents are in the De Luz area of Fallbrook and cleared 400 feet of brush around their house! They are considering buying a goat to keep it clear (some of their neighbors have as well). My parents did the responsible thing while other homeowners ignore brush clearance regulations. The firefighters are going to try to save a structure in which the owners have done their part, rather than save the structure with all of the brush around it. Ask any firefighter and they will tell you this is true.

These guys are totally exhausted and stretched thin. They sleep anywhere they can to get some rest.

I'm so thankful that on early Monday morning, the hill behind us in San Marcos was on fire and these wonderful heroes came and put out the fire! My home and those of my neighbors would be gone right now if they weren't here for us!

Also, There are some who think the firefighters have started these fires themselves. Have you been watching "Backdraft?" Its not like in the movies!!! Sure there have been a few wacko firemen however, 99.9% of these men are honorable wonderful people who are doing everything they can to help us! Shame on you for putting them down!

Its most likely a wack job arsonist or someone smoking and dumping the cigarette out of the car.

As we ran outside to see the fire on Monday morning, my neighbor ran out smoking a cigarette! Then she looked at me and said," I really shouldn't have this out here!" Duh!!!!

Maybe we need to outlaw smoking -- seems like it causes too many fires.

LOL. Why are there no fires outside of SD county on the fire map? See any fires in Temecula(AKA Riverside County). I don't, and it's even more dry and brushy up there. Hi! Deluz is close, but that's just a lil' peice.

I was thinking the same thing so I checked the Riverside County Fire Department web site (www.rvcfire.org). There are no evacuations in Riverside County. The closest fires to Riverside county are the Rice Canyon and the Poomacha fires.

It is very curious that all of these fires seemingly started on their own at the same time in locations too far apart for one ot have been caused by the other. For example, how exactly did the Coronado Hills fire suddenly start the same day as all the others? Are we talking about spontaneous combustion because of 'perfect' fire conditions? We're talking about 5+ fires all igniting around the same period of time.

The fires are hugging the county lines.. coincidence? Maybe our FD should take lessons from Riverside?? Jest.. proud of our FD and know they're working hard, I think it's probably more of a land management issue.