San Diego Housing Bubble News and Analysis

I had started a thread on SDL for Regents. There have been a few NODs in the complex.

Technically, this is La Jolla, not UTC.

Thanks! Any comments on whether this is the time to buy?

I haven't tracked that complex. If you are serious about it, find out what they're rent would be on the units. Check craigslist. Then do some math, how much you plan on putting down, what your PITI would be, plus HOA, minus tax write-off and see if it makes sense. I don't think we've seen bottom in LJ, but maybe there's someone out there that thinks differently.

There seem to be a lot of rentals now despite the large foreclosure rates forcing people to rent. Also, increasing number of layoffs in the "golden triangle" seem to have affected the rental market in UTC. However, we are planning to keep the condo long-term, i.e. for at least 5-10 years.

I know it well. Sold a listing in there a couple of years ago. Also my wifes office was about 1/4 mile away for 5 years.

What exactly do you want to know about it Sunny?

I like your idea. I have the same thoughts. Interested in a partner?

-Matt

Thanks!
My questions:
1) Any thoughts about how easy a unit can be rented out?
2) Current price attractive enough to buy? What was the original price of these units? I'm mostly interested in the units at 4155 Executive Drive
3) Any ideas if the HOA is under financial distress?

Your input is very much appreciated!

Who takes care of the rental, property management companies? How much is their typical charge? Also, I am guessing, all break even numbers are out of the door if the unit is vaccant for 1 month ..if renters are not found

I would manage it myself. Yes, if you leave the unit vacant you will incur a loss quickly...

Here is pricing from all of the units @ 4155 Executive Drive
http://www.sdlookup.com/Property_Search-...

Sunny without getting into much detail, I would not recommend Regents as an investment purchase. It does not pencil out anywhere close to what some of the other stock in UTC pencils out with regarding a rental property. The increase in rent that you would get does not come close to covering the expense of the complex.

You don't think that the current prices for the units are reasonable and will appreciate over the next 5-10 years? It is my understanding that the demand will always be there due to convenient location with easy access to the freeways, schools and shopping.

Sunny, where do you get such an optimistic view of Real estate, been talking to the NAR?

"It is my understanding that the demand will always be there due to convenient location with easy access to the freeways, schools and shopping."

On the contrary, there is no question that these units will depreciate in the next 5 years. 390K for a 1100s/f 2/2 nowhere near the beach, are you kidding me? Probably bottom out in the mid-200s if not lower. In ten years, who the hell knows. But why gamble?

Also, one of the other condo threads for UTC over on SDL - I forget which right now - someone mentioned something about more dorms being added on the campus.

delete

Sunny I think that from a tenant availability standpoint, utc will always be pretty flush. Ucsd is not the only provider as the golden triangle as well as all the scripps medical areas provide ample sources.

You need to define what your goal is. Is it cash flow or is it appreciation? Personally if I were to buy near utc right now it would be in the stock that exhibited more depreciation but that also had a lot lower overhead then Regents.If you are buying there to live then maybe that is another story.

Hey, SDR, if you ever get it into your mind to invest in rentals in SD, but see that it would work better with a few co-investors to get to a bigger dollar amount, just let us know here on piggington. I'd take a look, and would be positively disposed.

Thank you for your comment. We are not actually planning to live there (at least for now) but would like to invest in a newer and nicer property in a desirable area.

Has anybody seen one of these condos before? Any comments? I'm interested in buying it.

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-080077120-35...

Did you read link on the sales history on SDL? There's a link to another thread where there is discussion on Villa Vicenza.

I was in a unit back in the day when they were apartments. I haven't been in a converted one.

Yes, I did read your comments. The prices have come down drastically but buyers don't seem to think they are low enough. Is it because nobody wants to lend money for condos or am I missing something?

It would help if they had a picture of the actual unit rather than just the common areas. And why did they raise the price?

I am trying to figure it out, but I imagine the lawsuit and the amount of NODs in the complex and the low amount of owner occupied, perhaps even the condition of the HOAs finances, and the economy in general makes me think it may be difficult to get a loan on one of these units. Brian predicted 150k on these and I see it happening now. If we're not at bottom, heck, maybe it'll go lower. The NODs still continue to trickle in for the complexes condo conversions in that area.

What's the easiest way to check the financial position of these HOA's? Also, does anybody know how many units are owner-occupied and how many are rentals (3520 Lebon)?

Saw some nice condos at "Verano". Does anybody know this complex and any thoughts?

Here is a link with info on Verano.
http://www.sdlookup.com/Forums/RegionsNe...

Has anybody in this forum bought a condo at Verano?

There are a few short sales there right now and prices have dropped significantly. I'm also interested in buying a condo right now. Also looking at Villa Tuscana.

There are multiple offers for many of these condos now. Looks like prices have become very attractive now.