San Diego Housing Bubble News and Analysis

No commentary here?

I was at least expecting 'don't buy until 2010'!

I think that people are tired with the emotional-to-buy house-wife/house-husband.

Look at the direction of the economy.

It's your money.....

You situation/price range is EXACTLY like ours. Search for La Costa Valley on this board. I posted a question like this a couple of months ago.

I'll bite as I know this tract as well or better than anyone I've ever met. In addition to mountain biking extensively on the land before it was built, I looked at every builders homes from day 1 and have all the original floorplans for all of them. I've followed the market there like a hawk for about 7 years.

4BR/2800 sq ft should be doable within the next 12 months at 750K and it might even be a decent lot/location. 12 months after that 700K should be doable. Prices may hit 650K at a bottom but that is iffy and probably for a house you wouldnt necessarily want to buy. Just my opinion which is worth as much as you just paid for it...

Anymore questions?

We should all make a listing in a thread titled "Standard Answer"

Each person posts their answer to this question, then we have Rich lock it.

Whenever someone posts this question, someone can just post a link to it and save alot of time.

I did a lot of looking this weekend and concluded that it would be idiotic to buy now. Emotion got a hold of me for a couple of weeks, it's nice to be back in logic land.

There are a few very nice houses on cul-de-sacs asking over $1.1M; using the case-schiller index they should be $850-900K at best...and that's based on February pricing.

The cheapest of the houses that are on Grado El Tupelo and Corte Acebo are just that...cheap. And they are listed at $800K. Again, using CSI these should be at 725-750K and I would expect a 6% drop or so over the next two month.

I predict that at this time next year, you will see the same thing in LCV that we are currenly seeing in SEH: 20% lower prices and bidding wars on those priced aggressively.

waiting for bottom: I believe that you have made a very wise decision. Give it at least two more years and you'll save yourself a lot of hard-earned $$$$$$$

Why don't you do your research, find out what people paid, so you know who has a legitimate ability to drop their price, and offer what you are willing to pay. That way, you don't have to wait and might get it cheap now. I would also check divorce filings against the last names of the properties that interest you.
A message from logicland,
MPO

I have done that research and there are people that could have a lot of room but I'm going to offer $800K for a property listed at $1.15M, that's just a waste of everyone's time. Especially when there are clearly worse houses listed at $850K that I would offer $650K for.

How do you look up divorce listings?

The biggest part of the price run-up in San Diego happened between 2001 and 2004/2005. Prices had already doubled in some areas between 1997/1998 and 2001.

There is plenty of reason to believe prices across the board will reach pre-2001 levels. SFHs in Encinitas near the coast (older 'hoods) were selling for $200K-ish and are now priced anywhere from $650K to $1MM+.

The better areas have not **yet** seen the big declines. They are coming, IMHO.

Patience...

CA renter

Please give some examples where you can buy at or anywhere near pre-2001 levels in decent areas near or in Encinitas. Rents are at least 50% higher in those areas from 2001 -probably more. You can rent a crappy place in a crappy hood in Encinitas for $2k/month. And your neighbor has a meth habit and a pit bull.

Why get in a Bidding war in SEH?
Prices must come down to about 525 K . The greater fools are in bidding wars.
eg 857 Orion Way,92078.619,900 On and off Pending.When it goes pending the neighbors houses are listed for 589K. The buyer drops it. Look for it to go pending again.
Multi offer scam to increase bids
Don't forget the Mello Roos of $5500