San Diego Housing Bubble News and Analysis

La Costa Ridge is a beatiful community and I have a nice view of it from my home, in Carlsbad's Rancho Carrillo. La Costa Meadows Elementary is a great school, where my two older children attended. San Elijo Middle School, in San Elijo Hills, is similarly excellent with a great principal in Doug Hall, an excellent staff, outstanding bands and an active GATE program. And the well designed campus facilities are five years new.

But San Marcos High School has its challenges, primarily a fifty year old campus with downscale, although improving, demographics. There are some excellent teachers and some tenured failures (whom they can't fire), a wide variety of AP and honors course offerings and a newer artificial turf football field and track. The girl's varsity tennis program is very strong as is boy's lacrosse and boy's basketball. However, if your student isn't independent enough to avoid the 'wrong crowd' at SMHS, then beware. Drug and alcohol use are prevalent as well as promiscuity and violence. There is a full-time Sheriff's Deputy on campus plus a security staff of about a half-dozen personnel. The campus is adjacent to a gang injunction area in the Southwest corner of San Marcos. The school's API score is in the low 700's and climbing, which is exellent, but there's more to a high school education than a single academic ranking number. It can be a great high school experience or a harrowing one for your child, depending on how prone they are to peer pressure.

I have specialized in residential real estate in the Carlsbad, San Marcos submarkets for over eight years and have been a resident since 1992. I am intimately aware of the nuances between Carlsbad Unified, San Marcos Unified and the San Dieguito school districts and they all have their warts, if you want to examine them.

La Costa Ridge is a nice place to call home and it enjoys some of the BEST VIEWS in San Diego County, while offering convenient access to North County shopping, recreation and employment centers. The HOA fee is high but necessary to maintain common areas. Common area pools are not appropriate amenities in this price range anyway and good landscaping costs $$ to maintain. The community will be gated upon build-out.

There are also some similarly beautiful view homes on the next hill east of La Costa Ridge, in San Elijo Hills, and although that's in the same school district, it doesn't enjoy the cache' of the Southeast Carlsbad 92009 zip code (highly overrated). It pays to compare San Elijo Hills to La Costa Ridge, whether you decide to buy there or not.

Tom [at] CalCoastRealty [dot] com

Thanks for your insights, Tom, particularly on the school system. As I mentioned, we have been very happy with La Costa Meadows Elementary, and since our kids are young (5, 3 & 1) we don't have to worry about high school yet, but of course we take it into consideration as we'll get there in another 9 years.

Why do you think "Common area pools are not appropriate amenities in this price range"? La Costa Greens, where we currently rent a home, is similiar to La Costa Ridge and they have a nice community center & pool here.

SR Realtor - I think you live near here - do you have any experiences with La Costa Ridge?

I have a client that bought there. Empty nesters second marriage, sold two homes and combined households. Our friend Tom got the amenities thing wrong though. The plan was to not build the rec facilities in la Costa Ridge and to have them use the facilities in the other Villages of La Costa developements. Not sure which they actually use though (LC oaks or LC Greens) as my client built her own out back.

Out of curiosity Tom, why do you think 92009 is overrated? I have my thoughts but interested in hearing your opinion?

also, sd or Tom, any thoughts on how the elevation in prices of homes (resultant picky parents) in LC Greens and LC Ridge may change the face of San Marcos High?

From what I hear, Carlsbad High has similar issues but doesn't get nearly the negative attention that San Marcos High gets.

Hi Amy -

I cannot comment on La Costa Ridge as I have not investigated it thoroughly but I would agree with the assessment from sdr. I have a client who is going to be listing and she lives in Balearus and she likes it alot. They are moving due to health issues with her husband.

SD Realtor

sdr and Tom, care to comment on why KB's development in La Costa Ridge is so much less than the other builders even though they are of very similar sqft?

Inferior construction by far. On the back side of the hill over looking industrial parks instead the ocean, lagoon, canyon, La Costa Resort which the front side overlooks.

BTW, the most recent sale in our favorite San Marcos tract was for 580K which is a record high price. In all fairness it was probably the nicest property ever to resell in the tract with a decent sized yard by their standards and a nice pool but that aint no low 400's.

"BTW, the most recent sale in our favorite San Marcos tract was for 580K which is a record high price. In all fairness it was probably the nicest property ever to resell in the tract with a decent sized yard by their standards and a nice pool but that aint no low 400's."

is it this one?

453 Camino Hermoso San Marcos, CA 92078
3 beds, 3.0 baths, 2,259 sq ft
--Sold 05/16/2003: $436,095
--Sold 12/14/2007: $575,000

apparently they ain't done making fools just yet.

Thats the one and it pretty much settles our dispute.

BTW, I dont think you're a fool, you should give yourself more credit than that.

so what's the loan breakdown on this one. I find it highly suspicious that someone would buy a house like this for $575,000 when there was a 3,700 sqft home in equally decent if not better gated community built around the same year (2002) asking for $569,000 around the same time that this house entered and closed escrow.

maybe it's just me, but I would really caution you about declaring victory using this particular house.

I'm not claiming it was a good buy or that it was worth close to 575,000. What I am claiming victory on is that prices for an average home in that community of that floorplan were not in the low 400's as you suggested but rather close to 500K as I did. I think this one puts that notion to bed.

FWIW, tax records show a loan of 415K on the 575K purchase dispelling any of your claims involving potential loan fraud.

Drove through La Costa Ridge last week.For Sale signs are going up and its about a year since they moved in.
Pulte seem to have Keller Realty Riverside selling some of them cheaper than what last year buyers bought for !!
Heavy HOA with no ameneties,SAn Marcos schools.
After 18 months KB Homes Dolcetto. have sold about 3 houses!!

The KB homes are not impressive at all - they look out at the industrial park in San Marcos and of course are built by KB. I am not as familiar with the Pulte homes, but have noticed there are several coming up for sale. The Warmington section is almost sold out & they are nice houses with mostly good lots, about half with great views. The Shea homes are also nice (especially the Plan 2) but the lots aren't as great, however, they are selling (I've checked in several times over the last 2 months or so and fewer & fewer lots are available). There are always other people looking at the homes when I've been there so for sure they are getting decent foot traffic. I agree the HOA is high, but the community is within easy walking distance of La Costa Meadows, which is a great school, and the middle school is San Elijo, which is brand new. I would be interesting in finding out what the typical buyer is there...have any of the realtors on here sold a home there? Any idea if the builders are negiotiating HOA fees as well as throwing in upgrades?

My friend is the Super for the Warmington tract and is amazingly meticulous about his work. So I agree when it was earlier stated that the quality was good. I really like the plan with the interior courtyard and guest room upstairs. Just epic. . I have looked at them all, and they seem to be the most attractive up there, but I have to dispute the earlier quote that this is the best views in SD. That might be true if there were not power line towers running directly through the canyon. Don't they start in the low 1 million range?

The Pulte homes are on Corinthia between Fiori and Docetto the KB Homes.A freind of mine says KB homes sold a house that fell out of escrow to 4 others and they all fell out of escrow.The 2 people that bought are from out of town-Go figure.
The pulte homes on Tamarind are higher elevation and are going for less than the ones on Corinthia.

SD Realtor - you mentioned in an earlier post in this thread that you had a client who lives in Balearas and was going to be listing their home. We are looking in that neighborhood as well (we now rent in Villareal). We are looking for a 5 bedroom with a decent sized yard for our 3 kids. Have you heard much about this neighborhood? The prices for the few resales seem high to me, and I think at this point there's just one foreclosure (which doesn't have a good yard). I'd be interested in your opinion. thanks

Wait for the rests in a few months.

Hi Amy -

Yes I do have a client who has listed the home for sale in Balearus. It makes me kind of uncomfortable to push a listing I have on this post and I try not to do that. I don't mind talking about listings I have or experiences I have with buyers and stuff for helping people and giving out examples. If you would like to find out more information on the home give me a shout at adam [at] 1800grrealty [dot] com.

As far as the community goes, Balearus is very nice. As you most likely know it is a gated community. I would agree with you on the prices of the resales. I think there are one or two homes left from the builder, not sure which floorplans. Yeah I believe there is only one foreclosure. Also to get an ocean view you have to be high on the hill.

Finally it is very important to check on the school district. Make no mistake I am not a school district expert there so it is important to check which schools the kids would go to for residents in Balearas.

SD Realtor

It's San Marcos school district.For all that money!!

Amy
Balearus is not actually a gated community entirely. There are two portions to it. The gated portion down the hill with larger lots and some having golf course views. The more desireable (IMO) part of Balearus is actually up the hill and it is not gated. The homes are all on Amber Lane with the excetpiton of a handful on Zodiac Court up top. IMO, Amber Lane will eventually be one of the more prestigious address in Carlsbad. The views on the west side of the street are spectacular and there are decent sized lots. There seems to be some distress popping up there also. If I was looking in LC Greens, I'd would set my sites on Amber Lane.

sdr

The Davidson homes at La Costa Greens are better built with views and higher elevation.
They have fantastic deals.Amber lane is overpriced.Pulte pasteboard
sd realtor probably has a listing on Amber lane.Power Lines anyone//

The Davidson homes at La Costa Greens are better built with views and higher elevation.
They have fantastic deals.Amber lane is overpriced.Pulte pasteboard
sd realtor probably has a listing on Amber lane.Power Lines anyone//

sdr you are correct. If I were to want to live in Balearas, (which I do not as it is not my type of neighborhood) then I would have lived up where sdrealtor is talking about. The recent purchase on Amber Lane has a great view and the guy who purchased is now looking for another home for his brother who lives out of state but is going to move here.

The answer about the school district is correct.

Farbet with regards to your other observations, they are quite keen. I really wish I was as sharp as you are. Obviously as one of the listings in question is a listing I have I cannot provide comments in a forum that is public like this. Suffice it to say the seller has selected the pricing of the home. So keep up the brilliant insight please.

SD Realtor

We looked at the house on Amber Lane that recently sold (the one right above the Presido) and I thought it was just ok, although the views were amazing. It was nice in a lot of ways - I loved the exterior, but the inside looked like so many other houses we've seen, plus I felt it was way overpriced. There is another house on Amber Lane now that has an Open House almost every weekend, but I'm not crazy about the hilly street (since we have young kids, we are hoping for a flat street as the kids are into their bikes & scooters). I did check out the Davidson homes a couple of weeks ago, and they are priced much better and some of them have nice view lots.

But the HOA and Mello-Roos here at La Costa Greens is so high. I'd prefer to avoid throwing my money away on those things and instead invest it or at least use it towards my mortgage.

I would agree with your assessment Amy.

SD Realtor

Amy,
I didnt mean to buy on Amber Lane today. I think the real deals there are a couple years away but as you know the views are spectacular.

As for the Davidson homes, I havent seen them yet. I think they did a nice job with their floorplans in LC Valley particularly tghe Plan 3 which is my favorite in that entire tract. On the other hand, I think their floorplans in LC Oaks are lousy.

Farbet, I wish I had a listing up there. I would enjoy hanging out and taking in the view while sitting an open house or two.

The floorplans at Viridian (Davidson at La Costa Greens) are pretty good. The Plan 3 has a very different entry (into the dining room) but it's kind of neat overall. The Plan 4 with the casita & cabana is nice too - I think they are actually sold out of that one right now. The whole development seem to be selling pretty well (based on lot availability) especially considering the market.

One other benefit to Viridian, as opposed to most of LCG - it's in the Carlsbad school district and the elementary school is Poinsettia, which just opened this past September.

sdr,I didn't meant it the way it sounded.I have personal experience with Davidson. They are a class act.They have excellent customer service when something goes wrong and is out of warranty they work with you.Davidson gives you peace of mind IMO. PULTE,KB,HORTON mmmmmm...
KB homes after 2 years on LA Costa ridge has sold 3 homes, and only after they lowered the prices,.They were overpriced at the beginning,and still is for the location, in the feeding frenzy state of 06.
This house the 1 st buyer lost his deposit(50 K)at the time plus his deposit of the upgrades.They had contracts 4 different times and the buyers withdrew before closing.Something is wrong here.
http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-071094771-71...

sdr and Tom, care to comment on why KB's development in La Costa Ridge is so much less than the other builders even though they are of very similar sqft?

OCrenter Love your blog and investigative skills.I think its time to update 92009,92011,92024 and 92078.
There is something suspicous going on.

OCrenter - another request to PLEASE update your blog with 92009, 92011 and 92024!