San Diego Housing Bubble News and Analysis

Not surprised for detached..  Are you going to include attached too? :)

heheheheh...

No... way to much work my friend. I will say that the distressed markets for attached will indeed be stronger then detached.

SD Realtor

4S

1/6/08

32 actives (10 shorts, 2 REO)
17 pendings (4 shorts, 1 REO)

- 2 new actives listed since 12/27
- 1 of the new actives is a reo
- 4 new pendings that went pending after 12/27
- 2 previous actives went cancelled since 12/27
- 4 previous actives expired since 12/27

No Solds since 12/27
****************

1/6/08

92130

109 actives (1 short, 2 REO)
31 pendings (1 sHORT 4 REO

10 new actives since 12/27
1 of the new actives is an REO. (Caminito Stella which as of today has 14 offers on it)
7 new pendings since 12/27
9 expireds since 12/27
4 cancelled since 12/27
4 withdrawns since 12/27
1 withdrawn was a short sale.

Note that one of the REO I found on the actives in 92130 did NOT have any string in the comments. I just happened to remember seeing it as a distress sale so when I looked in the tax roll it was indeed REO. I don't think many listings are like that but it was curious.

SD Realtor

Just making sure it's not a typo. You said Caminito Stella has 14 offers???

Ok, so if that's an indication...We're still pretty far from any downward spiral in CV. (Sorry to any of those hoping for something REO priced at $1.5million to be purchasable for $750k). 

selfportrait

----- Sour grapes for everyone!

Yeah it is a drag. Still that is alot less then what it went for originally. Hey when it is all said and done we will see depreciation for this home compared to the previous purpose.

The Mesa Norte derby will start soon as well. That home should get BPO'd and appraised any day now and the second it hits the MLS it will be another frenzy if they price it in the 1.7-1.9 range like I think they will.

SD Realtor

Gee, I don't think it's a drag at all. $1.5M, that is a whopping 25% haircut, no? In fact, I think it is fantastic that people are auctioning houses. These are sellers that are facing reality. I sold my house in San Jose in the same manner, pricing it about 5% below expected selling price and taking what I could get. Sales like these are what move the market, not stagnant, unrealistic listings.

Still, I know I am outside the mainstream in my pessimism, but I believe further price declines will hit these guys like mule kicks to the gut.

SD Realtor,
BTW, have you seen that Mesa Norte house? It is totally trashed. Not only doesn't it have any landscaping, but it has become a complete trash dump. The house is filled with crap and the outside looks like a landfill. Looks to me like the former owners trashed it as they left, and others must be using it as a dumping ground as well. I even saw a makeshift outdoor fireplace, maybe some kids have been having parties there? That house represents to me the epitome of this housing bust. Someone should go take a picture and profile it as a follow up to previous posts. The lot also needs to be re-graded as the thing is eroding away with all this rain because of the lack of landscaping and drainage. I actually came down with a mild case of depression just walking around the place! Coupled with the bad location and poor construction quality, you really think that thing is going to go for $1.7-$1.9M?

I actually came down with a mild case of depression just walking around the place!

This happened to me last summer. We were considering a house that was an REO so I drove by to take a look at it. 6 yo 3000 sf home, close to a golf course. I got out of the car, tried the door, went in. Completely trashed!

The large front windows had been kicked out, frames and all. Paint dumped on the carpets. Screens ripped out. Dirt everywhere. And apparently someone had left the water running as water stains were everywhere. I opened the door to the coat closets under the stairs - fuzzy black mold an inch deep all over every square inch...I don't think I could even see the original white paint. Thats apparently where the water went.

I was so shaken that when I explained it to my wife at home, she wanted to see what had done that to me. When I took her back, she was left speechless. I don't understand ppl.

I am looking at townhome listings in 4S ranch. Average of $450K for 1400 sqft home (3 bdrm 2.5 bath) is a bit too much ( even if I can afford it).

Since my family will be expanding soon ( expecting a baby soon ), my wife is pressuring me to buy a townhome.

any chances townhomes in 4S rach could depreciate furthur?

SD Realtor: your inputs will be greatly appreciated.

New Renter I really do feel it will go in the 1.7 - 1.9 range. Please don't forget it was in escrow when it was listed for 1.9M AND the only reason it did not close was because of the seller.

SD Realtor

Pnilesh try to keep the faith and convince your wife that by waiting you will save money and thus be able to provide more for the family.

Yes I do believe that townhomes in 4S will continue to depreciate. I did not mean to convey that homes will not depreciate in these more desireable markets. I just meant (in this thread at least) to try to provide some data so that we can all identify distress activity in these two locations. Getting back to your question it is a hearty yes they will. You just need to try to buy some time, even a year will help but 2 or 3 would be awesome.

I understand that can be a difficult task.

SD Realtor

Well, the guessing is over. The bank listed 6473 Mesa Norte at $1.899M. Only a 13.5% discount off the original sales price of $2.275. Looks like they cleaned up the interior a bit before listing based on the pictures. I personally think anyone would be nuts to pay $1.9M for it. Will be interested to see what both Caminito Stella & Mesa Norte actually go for....

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-081001736-64...

Townhouse - 4S

I have been looking at Townhouses in 4S Ranch as well - and I don't see prices really coming down at all. Maybe a trivial amount.

A 1500-1600 Sq. Ft. townhouse in 4S will still set you back 500k.

Not much different if at all vs. 2 years ago.

Where is this depression caliber crash? It's happening in some places, but not 4S.

Paramount it is frustrating... Hang in there...

The depression caliber crash is not in 4S and while many think it is just around the corner in places in demand like 4S... I just don't know.... to me it is gonna be a slow roll until we get a catalyst.

SD Realtor

I was visiting a friend's place at 4S, her housing tract was like a little island surrounded by a sea of halted construction. Are they going to finish building up there?

OT Warning
I noticed that these cliff swallows were nesting like crazy under her roof. From her back yard I could see like 5 other back yards (the houses are close together and the yards are tiny) and they all had these cliff swallows nesting on the sides and backs of the houses. I was told that many of the neighbors were complaining about the bird poop and they regularly blast the nests away with a hose (I witnessed this). I'm no PETA member but it seems sad that houses were built where these birds nest and now the birds are being water-blasted away to beautify the homes!

Gianni @ 4S has stopped building as well or at least slowed down construction.

Paramount-- 4S has most certainly come down and will continue to do so. You must not have been tracking it that closely. I don't follow condos, but I'm certain you can find them in the 400s and that's still too much.

pnilesh-- Assure your wife that the last thing you want to do with a new baby is get yourself trapped in a townhome that you can't sell for what you paid into it. As soon as that baby can crawl, you'll want a yard and more space.

sdcellar: I work about 5 minutes from 4S, and every couple of months or so I would drive over and pick up a new pricing sheet for Gianni.

I have a pricing sheet from last summer and also one from mid December 2007 - the prices are the same.

Now, you can get a Gianni "Townhouse" for under 400k - the smallest model. It is to small for my family.

The model that is ~1600 Sq. Ft. is still 500k, the next one down is in the high 4's.

Nesting Swallows

According to a pest removal company:
"Swallows and their nests are fully protected under the Migratory Bird Treaty Act of 1918, which makes it illegal to intentionally kill, injure or take any migratory bird. It is illegal to intentionally damage or destroy the nest, eggs, or young of a swallow while it is being built or in use. The Act allows fines or prison sentences for every bird, egg or nest destroyed."

4S

We have over 35% of the detached resale inventory as distressed or shall we say short or reo. Unfortunately many of the shorts have comments that they have already fielded accepted offers that are submitted to the lender for approval.

1/16/08

37 actives (13 shorts, 2 REO)
18 pendings (4 shorts, 1 REO)

- 7 new actives listed since 1/7
- 2 of the new actives are shorts
- 2 new pendings that went pending after 1/7
- 1 of the new pendings is a short.
- 1 expired since 1/7
- 1 withdrawn since 1/7

****************

1/16/08

92130

118 actives (5 short, 1 REO) 1 of the shorts is caminito stella and the reo is mesa norte.
36 pendings (1 short 3 REO)

22 new listings since 1/7/08
3 of those new listings are already pending
19 are not
1 of the new actives is a short.
1 of the new actives is an reo. Mesa Norte which has 3 offers on it.
8 total pendings since 1/7
3 expireds since 1/7
4 cancelled since 1/7
6 withdrawns since 1/7
3 solds since 1/7.

SD Realtor

paramount-- In your orginal post you said prices were not too much different over the last two years and then you come back with comparisons between summer and December, which is a mere 5 months if given the benefit of the doubt, but maybe you mean a year and 5 months.

Either way, I wouldn't put a lot of stock into however it is that Standard Pacific comes up with prices. Those guys are idiots. Drive another 5 minutes and you can see all the wacky pricing they've done in Del Sur--up, down, down, up, whoops, down again. And all along, throwing in TVs, flooring, or not, whatever. Avaron is the biggest joke, check the ever changing stickers on their signs as you're driving in. $1.2 million, $1.5, $1.1, $1.3.

Remember - anything that is short, reo, or foreclosed will be noted.

1/29/08

36 actives (12 shorts, 2 REO)
13 pendings (6 shorts)

- 3 new actives listed since 1/17
- 1 of the new actives is short
- 2 new pendings that went pending after 1/17
- 2 of the new pendings are short.
- 2 cancelled since 1/17
- 1 withdrawn since 1/17
- 2 solds since 1/17

****************

1/16/08

92130

128 actives (2 short, 4 REO) 1 of the shorts is caminito stella and the reo is mesa norte.
38 pendings (2 short 2 REO)

19 new listings since 1/17/08
1 new listing is short and 1 is REO
9 new pendings since 1/17
2 of the new pendings are shorts.
4 expireds since 1/17
1 of the expired is a short
2 cancelled since 1/17
1 of the cancelled is a short
4 withdrawns since 1/17
7 solds since 1/7.
2 of the solds were REO.

Just a note here. I think 92130 has a couple more shorts or maybe reo than the listing let on. Remember I am just doing this manually looking for strings and such. However in a few of the confidential remarks indicators like commissions to be split and other things lead me to believe that there are further signs of distress... not alot of listings but maybe a few.

4s Renter

My family decided to rent a place in 4s, although our development (La Vina) isnt really part of the 4s master plan.
Prices in this development have dropped steadily since we started looking over here for rentals in Feb 2007. People were asking 600-650 for the 1700-2000 sq ft homes and recently one home was listed at 500-5andchange.

Since we moved in there has been a constant 8-12 homes with REO/ Fore Sales/ FSBO signs. As one gets bought up, another comes on the market. There is one on Tallus glen for rent (see craigslist) I think might be in trouble given that they are asking over 3K for rent and has dropped the rent price already in a week. So more to come in my opinion.

On 4s, the northern part of the "ranch" mello roos are outrageous. The ones on the south side are better (Older homes) and the gated community over in 4s had a listing just over 500k so that ones dropping a fast too.

The Heights being auctioned in Carmel Valley. I guess Carmel Valley is having a hard time selling so they have this company trying to do it.

Here is the info: http://www.auctionredcnow.com/

This REDC auctioned La Boheme in North Park. I don't know how it went, since I did not attend. Has anyone attended these auctions? I heard that people get crazy and generally the price climbs to ridiculous amounts.

It says the starting bid is 199k. As you may know, these were apartments, condo conversions that were at one time selling for upward of 500k. Quite a difference.

Pacific Beach and areas in the vicinity need a board like this.

make a PB topic.

I lived there for 7 years. Not much happening there, short of a few apartment/condo conversions.

Most of the stuff there is long term owned shacks, second properties and private complexes.

If you see something, post it up.

Yes I have been bad... These statistical/data mining posts are just a pain in the booty to keep current. Sorry bout that....I really should wait until Tuesday to capture the weekend activity but if I do there is no telling when I would update this thread...

2/17/08
1/29/08

41 actives (17 shorts, 3 REO) Wow almost half!!!
10 pendings (4 shorts)

- 9 new actives listed since 1/29
- 4 of the new actives is short
- 1 of the new actives is an REO
- 5 new pendings that went pending after 1/29
- 3 expired since 1/29 (two relisted)
- 1 withdrawn since 1/29
- 7 solds since 1/29
- 2 of the solds were short and the sales price was in the price range albeit at the bottom of the range.

****************

2/17/08

92130

141 actives (3 short, 5 REO)
35 pendings (2 short 3 REO)

43 new listings since 1/29/08!!!!
1 new listing is short and 2 are REO
17 new pendings since 1/29
1 of the new pendings is short and 1 REO.
8 expireds since 1/29
6 cancelled since 1/29
5 withdrawns since 1/29
12 solds since 1/29.

Musings... Our favorite Caminito Stella is still pending. Mesa Norte also went pending. My read on that is it will fetch between 1.75-1.8M. Finally, seems like alot of comment fields denoting that seller is an agent or related to the owner.

Double Musings...

The owner of the FSBO in Derby Hills called me last week. She is currently in escrow and is looking to buy another home in Santa Luz. She said she did quite well on that and her buyer is a cash buyer. She wants me to show her homes and only called cuz of my rebate. She said she basically wanted someone to get her in the door and she would do the rest. She told me she would not sign a contract with me so basically she wanted me to show her properties with no committment. I actually do work with many people without contracts but there is an element of trust I have developed with them. I may get burned but if so then that is my fault. With her, I guess it was nice of her to be up front about pretty much wasting my time.

Okay update time

3/5/08

46 actives (14 shorts, 2 REO) Most of the SS have offers according to the comments.
9 pendings (4 shorts, 1 REO)

- 7 new actives listed since 2/18
- None of the new actives are shorts or REO!
- 3 new pendings that went pending after 2/18
- 2 of the new pendings are shorts
- 1 of the new pendings is an REO
- 1 expired since 2/18
- 1 cancelled since 2/18 (short sale)
- 1 withdrawn since 2/18
- 2 solds since 2/18 (Neither was a short or REO)
(One of them was 10212 Lone Dove, went for 775k)

*Synopsis...not much... the pendings are slow moving... The active/pending ratio is slowly deteriorating, inventory is moving up slow but steady. Let's see if it is 5 to 1 by my next post in 2 weeks.

****************

3/5/08

92130

148 actives (4 short, 2REO)
52 pendings (2 short 4 REO)
43 new listings since 2/18/08 (WOW!)
1 new listing is short.
26 new pendings since 2/18/08
4 of the new pendings are REO.
6 expireds since 2/18
1 cancelled since 2/18
10 withdrawns since 2/18 (1 short)
14 solds since 2/18. (2 REO)

Musings... Our favorite Caminito Stella sols at 1.625M which was 125k above asking and about 400k below the 2005 sales price, (a nice 20% decline)... Mesa Norte is still pending. There is a HUGE rush of new inventory. Similarly there has been alot of pendings as well. Combine the pendings with the solds, expireds, cancelled and withdrawens and the active/pending ratio is holding strong and even has improved from 2 weeks ago.

Not speculating anything, just stating the facts.

SD Realtor

Okay update time. I am going to cut down on reporting how many new actives/pendings come out and just keep reporting the totals as well as how many of the sales are shorts or REOs. Way to much manual work.

3/26/08

4S Ranch

-43 actives (14 shorts, 4 REO) Most of the SS have offers according to the comments.
-11 pendings (4 shorts)
-3 solds since 3/6/08. None of them were shorts or REO.

active to pending ratio has actually improved slightly since last stats were taken.

****************

3/26/08

92130

173 actives (5 short, 3REO)
43 pendings (3 short 2 REO)
16 solds since 3/7. (1 short, 2 REO)

Musings... Mesa Norte ended up going for 1.775M.

SD Realtor

CV Active/Pending ratio increased from:
2.84-->4.02 just since your last posting
Plus the # of REO/Shorts increased

That is one of the worst deriorations in the CV numbers I've seen yet. Inventory has gone up dramatically (seems more than just the normal seasonal increase). Also starting to see some big losses in CV, such as:

http://www.sdlookup.com/Property-0A6427E...

17% loss ($177K plus selling costs)!

Seems they are starting to head for the exits in CV....could this be an inflection point?