San Diego Housing Bubble News and Analysis

Fed lower rate again? I don't know, big Ben is taking a lot of heat from dollar devaluation.

Nor_LA-Temcu-SD-Guy

wasn't he the one saying to buy (stocks of ) the builders about 6 or 8 months ago ??

anyway they should put him and that ColdWell Banker CEO in the same room with a few feral cats and see what happens.

I'm not defending the guy, but he's a trader, not an investor. By that, he could recommend a stock to get a pop, then recommend a sell on it week later to cash in and get out. He seems rather permabull on the markets, but has been bashing housing stocks for quite a while (months). Like him or hate him, it's nice to see permabulls be negative on housing at least (for those hoping for price declines!).

Prior to Jim's comment about "Don't Buy a House Now!" he also said that prices will break and we will be out of this by this time next year. So, my question to Jim is, how are ordinary buyers supposed to time the market so they know when it hits bottom? I mean, if the majority of buyers heed his advice and stay on the sidelines until he says jump back in, then won't that create a frenzied market again? I'm a Realtor and the majority of "buyers" I talk to are waiting for the bottom. I'm not an economist but it seems to me that if everyone waits and prices plummet, then when everyone jumps in, we will be right back where we were before with escalating prices.

Jim's instincts were on earlier in the year, he could seemingly do no wrong, but of late, the best advice would be to do just the opposite of Cramer's opinions. He's a smart guy, but his instincts are completely scrambled at this point.

For example, he predicted market downturns preceding each of the last 3 weeks. Ouch.

I can't stand this guy, he's gonna have a heart attack.

He's a too-tightly-wound pessimistic cheerleader riding shotgun in the bandwagon of irrational exuberance, panic, euphoria and mindlessness typical of today's volatile markets.

"I'm not an economist but it seems to me that if everyone waits and prices plummet, then when everyone jumps in, we will be right back where we were before with escalating prices."

Not investors. It takes a while to change their psychology, especially if real estate turns out to be a horrible investment like it always has been.

During the boom, non-owner occupied purchases were 48% of the activity. That means half of all purchases were investors/speculators.

Jeeman

@cooprider14

He's a too-tightly-wound pessimistic cheerleader riding shotgun in the bandwagon of irrational exuberance, panic, euphoria and mindlessness typical of today's volatile markets.

Oh, you mean he is seriously bipolar with ADD and hyperactivity disorder?

Isn't there a site where a monkey makes stock picks that beat Cramer?

I agree with your stat about investors making up a huge part of the market in the boom and the fact they are non-existent in this current market, but I've got investor clients chomping at the bit to get back into the game. (I'm one of them also!)

"non-owner occupied purchases were 48%"
How/where do you get these numbers?

While it pains me to say it, he was the only one I read that called the meltdown at Standard Pacific, saying that was the one builder he wouldn't loan money for a cup of coffee to. This was about two months ago and other writers were listing them as one of the builders that would be fine. They went from the 20's to 5 in the time since he said that. I don't like Cramer for a couple of reasons but his advice on the builder stocks in the last few months has been more accurate than any of the prognosticators.

"How/where do you get these numbers?"

I wish I could show you my source, but it was over 2 years ago...probably the Union Tribune. I may be off a percent or two, but it was in the high 40s.

Jeeman

ucodegen -

That was good, I actually laughed at that because I just picture him with a vein about to pop in his head.

Shari points out that there are many who are waiting on the sidelines and wonders if we won't see a second boom when they return. This is a common thinking of people when a bubble first collapses, but almost never proves to hold. Often you get a small correction back up, somewhere around halfway down, but then things turn back to trending down. This is often the case when the stock market drops or commodities drop.

Regardless if it's stocks or real estate the psychology is the same. When the downturn first starts people sense an opportunity. But by the time the market settles at the bottom, people are more scared, having seen others burned and witnessed some having their fingers cut off while trying to catch a falling knife.

If most of the predictions on this board are anywhere near accurate, it will be a year or two before things bottom out. By then the real estate thinking of many of your investors will probably have changed. First off, many people will realize by then that values won't pick up for quite some time. There will be far more understanding that real estate isn't historically a very good investment. Probably lending will not be loose and readily available. Plus, most of the non-investors will have become gun shy. After seeing friends or maybe themselves foreclosed on, the average joe is gonna be a lot less likely to take on a mortgage. So, you maybe be sensing a lot of waiting buyers right now, but the overall number of people willing to plunk down their money is dropping, and will continue to drop. And that's what matters, not the number of people who say they are waiting to buy.

XBoxBoy