San Diego Housing Bubble News and Analysis

Correction:

South Carlsbad had 25 resales detached homes close in January 2006. In January 2007 we already have 26 and with todays EOM closings combined with late reporters volume should be up at least 25% over last year.

What is your view of price changes in those two areas?

Good question. I am wondering if some of these sales were triggered by large price reductions. Would make sense because towards the end of last year we started to see some significsant reductions. Whether this would show up in January's median is anyones guess since we all what a poor measure the median is.

What is your view of price changes in those two areas?
I concur. What's the average/sq-ft and median/sq-ft price this year compare to 2006? That would give a much better pictures. If the price drops, that mean sellers are getting more realistic and buyers are snapping up what perceived to be deals. If the price rises, then I guess those area are immune to the decline so far. That might confirm a theory that decline start w/ cheaper homes and move to more expensive homes.

When I checked at category of homes I am looking at right now for a client here is what I found. I looked at houses built since 1998 with 2800 to 3500 sq ft. It was a pretty small sample for both years both the results are probably fairly indicative here.

Jan 2006 - avg price per sq ft about $315 and nothing under $300.

Jan 2007 - avg price per sq ft about $285 and nothing over $300.

This was easy for me to answer as I had already included this in my research. I'll have to get back to you on the countywide data.

Here are some countywide numbers

Avg price per sq ft January 2006 - $385

Avg price per sq ft January 2007 - $344

In both cases the avg house was comparable in size (2000 to 2050)

How about Santee?

Santee

18 Detached sales in Jan 2006
Avg price per sq ft was $322 for 1551 sq ft home

17 detached sales so far for Jan 2006 (expect a few more to show up)
Avg price per sq ft was $300 for 1487 sq ft home (smaller houses typically sell for higher price per sq ft due to fixed costs so the decline is actually more than it appears)

Thanks sdrealtor you are the bomb!

sdr, I am seeing quite similar numbers in some of the zips off the I15 corridor. I am sure people will interpret the numbers in lots of different ways. My interpretation is that the market is normalizing to the price reductions... at least for now.

SD Realtor

SD R,
I agree. The big question is how much more is coming on the market and what will sellers do when they realize that the comps are lower limiting the price they can get an appraisal for even if they found a buyer willing to pay a higher price.

SDR

So, according to the stats, average price per sq-ft went down about 11% county wide and 10% in the La Costa South Carlsbad area. Seems like it's what we've been expecting to see. sdr, can you give the stats for 92121, 92126, 92129, 92130 if you don't mind. Thanks in advance.

Nor_LA-Temcu-SD-Guy

Just my opinion but I think we are looking at a shelf before the next cliff, kind of like looking down the grand canyon,

cliff - shelf -- next cliff -- next shelf -- next cliff etc..

Anyway, don't see a big run-up in prices at this point, so I will wait and see.

SD Realtor,

I would love to see the same stats for 92037 and 92109 if you have the time.

I would suspect PB to have moved down, and would expect La Jolla to have held tight or moved up a bit.

Big Thanks!

Dead cat bounce ??? More like dead cat convulsing, its yet to die.
Cool.
Cow_tipping.

Wow, this is really great info! Thanks for posting sdrealtor!
Also, can you post price per foot for 2005, and 2004?

I wonder if that drop is the same as what happened in the last local RE cycle? Does anyone have those figures from back then?

Maybe this makes up for the reduction in volume countywide during 3rd Qtr 2005. I ran the numbers last week, and those numbers would have included the late posters from the agents. If memory serves, December 2006 was down 15% from December 2005, and 3Q/2006 was down by over 20% from 3Q/2005.

Everyone,
I will do my best to get to everyone's requests today but am very busy with RE matters as well as the opening of a new unrelated business venture in a couple weeks. It might not be until later tonite.

Glad you find the information useful. it's my pleasure to share.

SDR

Ah, now we know why this particular RE broker isn't such a spinster like the others. :) He isn't so fiscally dependent. Good luck in your new business.

I know this is a micro look at a macro issue, but right in my tiny little townhouse development, I've observed the following recent activity.

Last year my landlord offered to sell me the 1660 sqft unit I rent in LaCosta, for "about $500k". After finding this site, and over several months of contemplating, I declined. During this time, a slightly larger (1800 sqft) unit across the street went on sale for $565K. Not a single look see, it showed like crap, because the owners left it a mess. After about 150 days it dropped to $535K. After about 300 days it dropped to $500K. So the bigger unit will now sell for less than my smaller one was thought to be worth a year ago, essentially on the same street.

In December, an identical unit to mine, except much more nicely upgraded, with granite, stainless, etc, went on the market for $470K. That unit sold in ~45 days, at $450K.

So the volume is there, so long as the pricing is realistic. Overprice a dump, it will sit forever. Price a nice property with realistic expectations, and it will sell. Looks like quite a few sellers in January understood this concept.

But the bottom line is, where my owner once expected $500K a year ago, he'll now be lucky to get $435K for it. About 10% more and I might be tempted to reconsider:)

AN,
My pleasure.

92121 (3 sales last year, 2 this year) Not enough data and avg home size to different to interpret anything meaningful

92126 (volume down, hard to tell what's happened with price)
19 Detached sales in Jan 2006
Avg price per sq ft was $365 for 1372 sq ft home

25 detached sales so far for Jan 2007
Avg price per sq ft was $332 for 1461 sq ft home (bigger homes sell for less per sq ft so decline overstated)

92129 (volume down, price down 7%)
27 Detached sales in Jan 2006
Avg price per sq ft was $318 for 2180 sq ft home

19 detached sales so far for Jan 2007
Avg price per sq ft was $296 for 2176 sq ft home

92130 (The big hurt! Volume down, price down 16%)
32 Detached sales in Jan 2006
Avg price per sq ft was $394 for 3258 sq ft home

27 detached sales so far for Jan 2007
Avg price per sq ft was $340 for 3203 sq ft home

sdr, thanks again for the info. It seems like the area hurting the most are the area with new homes. Since builders are much more willing to be realistic to move inventory quickly.

92037
24 Detached sales in Jan 2006
Avg price per sq ft was $646 for 2486 sq ft home

13 detached sales so far for Jan 2007
Avg price per sq ft was $801 for 3221 sq ft home

La Jolla is a tough one because of the uniqueness of each home in so many respects (size, design, view, location etc.). The mix of homes can lead to HUGE swings. With that said volume is waaaaaaay down.

92109
5 Detached sales in Jan 2006
Avg price per sq ft was $578 for 1078 sq ft home

7 detached sales so far for Jan 2007
Avg price per sq ft was $580 for 1446 sq ft home

Not enough data to say much of anything.

Lindi,
Here are some countywide numbers (looks like there is a corrected figure for Jan 2006). I also threw in some numbers to show you what happened during the peak off the frenzy in Spring 2004. Bear in mind that January 2004 sales actually went into escrow in Nov/Dec 2003 before things really got nuts!

Avg price per sq ft January 2004 - $302 (avg = 1973 sq ft)
Avg price per sq ft April 2004 - $321 (avg = 2001 sq ft)
Avg price per sq ft June 2004 - $342 (avg = 2003 sq ft)

Avg price per sq ft January 2005 - $352 (avg = 1958 sq ft)

Avg price per sq ft January 2006 - $362 (avg = 2019 sq ft)

Avg price per sq ft January 2007 - $344 (avg = 2040 sq ft)

In both cases the avg house was comparable in size (2000 to 2050)