San Diego Housing Market News and Analysis
January 2013 Housing Data Rodeo
Submitted by Rich Toscano on February 18, 2013 - 5:18pm
Home prices pulled back in January, despite increasingly tight inventory and robust sales. Supply and demand will be discussed later; first, some graphs on prices.
The median price per square foot fell on a month-to-month basis by .9% for detached homes, 6.4% for condos, and 2.3% in aggregate. The graph below shows that such huge moves occur somewhat routinely for condos, so as always, it makes more sense to pay attention to the detached home line in blue.
Here's a look at prices starting from the bubble peak:
The Case-Shiller proxy (which uses a 3-month moving average of the single family price per square foot) was up .3% for the month. Here's a chart from the trough, showing that the uptrend that began a year ago thus far remains intact despite last month's weakening of the price per square foot:
Same thing from the bubble peak:
Meanwhile on the supply front, inventory has continued to plummet:
Here's another look at inventory, but separated out by year so you can compare months with like months. Look at that lonely little blue square down there on the left... this is totally unlike what we saw a year ago (down 40%, to be specific).
The difference in active inventory (which excludes contingents, i.e., short sales with offers waiting for bank approval) is even more stark -- down 50% from a year ago!
Meanwhile sales activity was fairly robust, with January actives and pendings higher than in recent years:
And thus did months of inventory continue its plunge into the abyss:
Again, behold the lonely blue square -- this one 43% below its level of a year ago:
Months of inventory is very important in my view, because it seems to drive near-term price movements per this chart that I am always going on and on about:
Well, now we've hit a new post-bubble low in months of inventory. Interesting that prices actually weakened the same month, but I am not making too much of this, because the seasonal tendency is for prices to be weakening now.
In the past, divergences between these two series have resolved themselves in favor of months-of-inventory. If that continues to be the case, and inventory remains this constrained, then we should expect further price gains to come.
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|* Rich Toscano is a registered representative of and offers securities and investment advisory services through Girard Securities, Inc., a registered Broker/Dealer, Registered Investment Advisor, and member FINRA/SIPC. Pacific Capital Associates is not a subsidiary or affiliate of Girard Securities. The views and opinions expressed on this site are not those of Pacific Capital Associates or Girard Securities, Inc. The information on this site should not be construed as investment advice.|