January 2011 Resale Housing Data Rodeo

Submitted by Rich Toscano on February 7, 2011 - 8:44pm

Well, it's 2011, and yet I am still lacking the following:
  • laser eyes
  • hyper-evolved glasses-wearing chimp assistant
  • self-aware email client
  • minotaur
  • huffable bacon
  • tank full of precogs to help me match my outfits
Someone please tell science to get on it.  For now, we'll have to make do with the January resale data.

The median price per square foot took a bit of a beating last month: down 3.0 percent for detached homes, 7.2 percent for condos, and 4.5 percent in aggregate:



The condo series is often all over the place; I prefer to watch the detached series.  But even there it was a pretty big drop, atop an even bigger drop that had taken place in December.  Granted, we are in the weak season for real estate, but these are some fairly sizable declines.

With this, the Case-Shiller proxy predicts a 2.2% decline in the January Case-Shiller index.  That would be a slightly (1.6%) year-over-year decline, which supports the idea that this is more than just seasonal weakness.



Speaking of seasonality, you can try to spot the seasonal patterns in the following crosshatched versions of the above graphs:





The number of closed sales was down for the month (more seasonality) and down 2.8% from a year ago.  (Look for the black dot as the 2011 "line" only consists of one data point thus far):



Pendings increased (yet more seasonality) and were nearly identical to both the January 2009 and January 2010 levels:



Inventory declined (something something seasonality) and, while almost identical to the January 2009 level, was up 21.3% from a year ago.


This left months of inventory also at January 2009 levels but up around 21% from January 2010:


You'll note that after January 2009, months of inventory dropped hard and stayed down until the winter slowdown.  After an initial drop in 2010, though, months of inventory rose for the rest of the year.  Which one will it be this year?  I don't know (though I will note that the tax credit stimulus coincided with the increased activity).  It does seem that inventory is at a level that's putting downward pressure on home prices, so unless sales pick up or inventory declines, we may be in for further price declines.

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Submitted by tdelamater on February 8, 2011 - 2:12pm.
Submitted by Rich Toscano on February 8, 2011 - 2:55pm.

Ha! I actually have some of that in my pantry.

Kind of burny when inhaled though.

Submitted by UCGal on February 8, 2011 - 3:27pm.

huffable bacon? Yikes.

Submitted by poorgradstudent on February 9, 2011 - 12:01am.

Rich, first you say you want huffable bacon. Then you complain when said huffable bacon burns?

Submitted by sdduuuude on February 10, 2011 - 9:09pm.

Interesting uptick in the blue asking price line of the Redfin chart.

Suggests there may be some sort of seasonal Spring bounce.

Submitted by permabear on February 11, 2011 - 11:34am.

sdduuuude wrote:
Interesting uptick in the blue asking price line of the Redfin chart.

Suggests there may be some sort of seasonal Spring bounce.

I dunno, I think it's just sellers being stubborn/unrealistic. Or, they are up against the ropes and have to sell, but "can't afford to sell it for less than $X".

Case in point, this home has been on and off the market for 3 years at more or less the same price:

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Del-Mar/15030-R...

I've been in it twice. The price is too high. The pictures make it look WAY better than it is.

Submitted by CA renter on February 11, 2011 - 11:19pm.

permabear wrote:
sdduuuude wrote:
Interesting uptick in the blue asking price line of the Redfin chart.

Suggests there may be some sort of seasonal Spring bounce.

I dunno, I think it's just sellers being stubborn/unrealistic. Or, they are up against the ropes and have to sell, but "can't afford to sell it for less than $X".

Case in point, this home has been on and off the market for 3 years at more or less the same price:

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Del-Mar/15030-R...

I've been in it twice. The price is too high. The pictures make it look WAY better than it is.

Well, surely you're not expecting them to "give it away." ;)

More excellent data, Rich. Thank you so much for everything you do!

Submitted by barnaby33 on February 14, 2011 - 10:55am.

Still waiting for my 25k inventory bbq. Almost got there 3 years ago, but meh. I'm shocked at the decline in prices, truly shocked. Well that it has taken this long anyway. So this is what the long slow grind to 50% off is like huh?
Josh

Submitted by sdrealtor on February 14, 2011 - 3:11pm.

Lots of areas are already 50% off. Just not where you must be looking. Then again those areas probably didnt run up as much as the ones that have fallen by 50% already.

Forget about the 25K inventory. Make a few nice pulls out of your locker and lets just have a BBQ now:)

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