It's up how much?

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Submitted by desmond on June 18, 2012 - 9:32am

Forget about "Mira Mesa being on fire" is there another dot com runnup with biotechs? ARIA ARNA are a couple I have, any others?

Submitted by flu on June 18, 2012 - 9:36am.

No startup. But loading up on qualcomm. Assuming they take care of their supply issues.

Submitted by Huckleberry on June 18, 2012 - 9:54am.

flu wrote:
No startup. But loading up on qualcomm. Assuming they take care of their supply issues.

I am also loading up on QCOM. Many analysts state this is a $65 stock by EOY. Trading in mid 50's now is a great discount...

Submitted by flu on June 18, 2012 - 10:03am.

Huckleberry wrote:
flu wrote:
No startup. But loading up on qualcomm. Assuming they take care of their supply issues.

I am also loading up on QCOM. Many analysts state this is a $65 stock by EOY. Trading in mid 50's now is a great discount...

I bit the bullet and bought 2200 shares last week on top of what I purchased the previous week. So yeah, this is going to be an interesting situation in the coming month or so... I'm not greedy, if I can get $60/share in the next 3-6 months, I'm out.
Some of you folks on the board probably work there..So you need to quit posting and worker harder! :)

I'm also loading up again on oil/gas... BP and VLO seems heavily discounted. VLO was near $30 a few months back. I'm back in at $23.

Of course, this means all the afformentioned companies are now going to tank..I pity folks that work in the companies that I own shares in... It's a long long way down :)

Submitted by desmond on June 18, 2012 - 10:04am.

NAVB

Submitted by spdrun on June 18, 2012 - 10:05am.

Don't laugh, but solar stocks are dirt-cheap now. And we'd be stupid not to exploit a basically free energy source in the long run.

Submitted by flu on June 18, 2012 - 10:07am.

desmond wrote:
NAVB

Desmond was so spot on arna.... And dude told me to get in when it was dirt cheap.. I wish I listened...

Unfortunately, biotech/pharma scares the living crap out of me. I don't understand the business.. I wish I had the guts to play. You're probably going to be right on this one too.

Submitted by flu on June 18, 2012 - 10:09am.

spdrun wrote:
Don't laugh, but solar stocks are dirt-cheap now. And we'd be stupid not to exploit a basically free energy source in the long run.

Not laughing because I would agree with the energy source. My only concern is that it seems U.S. companies can't compete. There's so many cheap manufacturers from overseas, and we've seen a bunch of u.s. companies going under recently. Not sure if any of the big overseas players are listing as ADR on the u.s. exchanges.

Submitted by flu on June 18, 2012 - 10:10am.

unrelated topic. Anyone thinking about spain bonds? :)
7%... I know. How does one go about getting a leg in them?

Submitted by spdrun on June 18, 2012 - 10:18am.

Property in many parts of the country can yield 7%+. Why would you bother unless you were masochistically inclined?

Submitted by flu on June 18, 2012 - 10:47am.

spdrun wrote:
Property in many parts of the country can yield 7%+. Why would you bother unless you were masochistically inclined?

I have (a) property that is yielding 7%+ in sd. And other property elsewhere as well and I'm working on more here. Let's just say, I want to spread the risk.

7-10% (depending on how you count) on a rental also has some simplifying assumptions..it doesn't account for possible PITA factors. For instance, depending on how one counts, it may or may not include a cushion for turnover or average expected vacancy for a given location, which can very depending on tenant and location.

A few months back I could probably do 6% on a section 8 in MM, because a few folks asked me a few months back. BUT then again you're kinda stuck in it for a longer time. pus for this first one in San Diego, I kinda want to keep it stupid simple.

but to answer you. If I could consistently get a 7% return on a paper instrument with reasonable risk, I would probably do that more so than doing rental property, a la less PITA factor. People like to advertise they are great guru's when it comes to paper investing. I'm not. For every 25%+ gain in one "investment" I bank, I probably have a -13-25% one as well. So if I average out in a year better than the markets, I feel I'm already doing alright.

Submitted by spdrun on June 18, 2012 - 10:56am.

The Spaniards are more likely to default on their debts than US real estate is to disappear :). 7% ain't worth the risk to me.

Submitted by flu on June 18, 2012 - 10:57am.

spdrun wrote:
The Spaniards are more likely to default on their debts than US real estate is to disappear :). 7% ain't worth the risk to me.

Lol. I know...entertaining isn't it? Well greece is saved (for now :))

Submitted by The-Shoveler on June 18, 2012 - 11:08am.

Having FB and GRPN take the lead today is not inspiring me,

Course I have been out of the market all year so that is not saying much.
I went to the Pechanga Golf course (The Journey at Pechanga) yesterday (father’s day) and the place was deserted.
There is talk of Ferrari owners filling with regular gasoline.
Things are bad I tell you..
IMO,

Submitted by sdrealtor on June 18, 2012 - 11:19am.

I played there a couple weeks ago. Its a small fortune to play there but we got out with group outing for $80. Its like an amusement park of golf. Would love to play there again.

How did you like the 4th hole and did you play from the way back tees on it?

Submitted by The-Shoveler on June 18, 2012 - 11:28am.

Actually I don’t play golf, we just went there to eat lunch and walk around a little.
Maybe one day I will take it up. Too busy, being an enginanerd I never have any time.

Submitted by flu on June 18, 2012 - 11:44am.

The-Shoveler wrote:
Having FB and GRPN take the lead today is not inspiring me,

Course I have been out of the market all year so that is not saying much.
I went to the Pechanga Golf course (The Journey at Pechanga) yesterday (father’s day) and the place was deserted.
There is talk of Ferrari owners filling with regular gasoline.
Things are bad I tell you..
IMO,

They should just go to costco... Lol....

Anyway, I dropped of my truck at the stealership to install a trailer hitch. Aside from the fact that it was ridiculous $1100 parts and labor bend over job,the BMW stealership was packed for service... Maybe times are tough and the ferrari owners had to downgrade to average person brand???? :)

At the same extreme..took my kid for her first horseback riding lesson...Instructor said she's trying to organize a summer camp, but so far not too many respondents... Guess it depends on what....

Submitted by njtosd on June 18, 2012 - 4:52pm.

Can't imagine another biotech run up. Too expensive to do required clinical trials, too many black box warning requirements, very difficult to get medicare reimbursement. The industry overall is shedding jobs at a huge pace (about 120,000 jobs since 2009). Merck bought Schering a couple years ago and has fired almost all the former Schering employees. Everyone is always hoping for something great to come out of the start ups, but recent blockbusters are few and far between . . . . . Plus, lots of expired patents on big compounds (lipitor etc.) without much new that's exciting. For example, Arena appears to have nothing beyond phase 1 except Lorcaserin (I know, they got good news from the FDA recently) -but they seem to be partnering with Ortho on that one - so Ortho will likely get a big share of potential profits. Plus there are always considerations such as downstream problems with patents or consumer demand. Haven't looked at the patent coverage but there are always generics out there looking for a way to invalidate patents on blockbusters (Prozac, etc.). Just a very risky business -

Submitted by desmond on June 18, 2012 - 5:43pm.

njtosd wrote:
Can't imagine another biotech run up. Too expensive to do required clinical trials, too many black box warning requirements, very difficult to get medicare reimbursement. The industry overall is shedding jobs at a huge pace (about 120,000 jobs since 2009). Merck bought Schering a couple years ago and has fired almost all the former Schering employees. Everyone is always hoping for something great to come out of the start ups, but recent blockbusters are few and far between . . . . . Plus, lots of expired patents on big compounds (lipitor etc.) without much new that's exciting. For example, Arena appears to have nothing beyond phase 1 except Lorcaserin (I know, they got good news from the FDA recently) -but they seem to be partnering with Ortho on that one - so Ortho will likely get a big share of potential profits. Plus there are always considerations such as downstream problems with patents or consumer demand. Haven't looked at the patent coverage but there are always generics out there looking for a way to invalidate patents on blockbusters (Prozac, etc.). Just a very risky business -

Eeyore said the same thing.

Submitted by moneymaker on June 18, 2012 - 8:07pm.

Seeing as Rich hasn't posted in over a month why don't we turn this into a stock forum? I just bought HP, who thinks I'm crazy? After buying them I learned that when a stock has a Q after it, that means they are in bankruptcy, please someone tell me it doesn't apply to HP.

Submitted by flu on June 18, 2012 - 9:13pm.

moneymaker wrote:
Seeing as Rich hasn't posted in over a month why don't we turn this into a stock forum? I just bought HP, who thinks I'm crazy? After buying them I learned that when a stock has a Q after it, that means they are in bankruptcy, please someone tell me it doesn't apply to HP.

HPQ the Q came from old compaq days... HP use to be HP. And Compaq use to be CPQ.

HPQ came as part of the Fiorina compacting..I have very strong opinions about HP.... Imho HP lost it's only chance to survive when it dumped Hurd and he subsequently went to Oracle..

FWIW: http://piggington.com/ot_wow_hp
Stock is trading off more than 50% since it was discussed.

Meg is not going to be able to turn this anchor around... Just look at the numbers. Oracle posted theirs today... Looked great. HP...meh!...

In a few years, Oracle is going to look cheap... They own so much of the backend now, it's not even funny. Part of the reason why I got out of backend enterprise systems development.. I would buy in, if it wasn't for the fact that they kinda torpedoed so many of my colleague's companies.

BTW: if I had to pick between HP of today or Agilent (what was part of HP before), definitely Agilent is the way to go....

Submitted by njtosd on June 18, 2012 - 9:37pm.

desmond wrote:
njtosd wrote:
Can't imagine another biotech run up. Too expensive to do required clinical trials, too many black box warning requirements, very difficult to get medicare reimbursement. The industry overall is shedding jobs at a huge pace (about 120,000 jobs since 2009). Merck bought Schering a couple years ago and has fired almost all the former Schering employees. Everyone is always hoping for something great to come out of the start ups, but recent blockbusters are few and far between . . . . . Plus, lots of expired patents on big compounds (lipitor etc.) without much new that's exciting. For example, Arena appears to have nothing beyond phase 1 except Lorcaserin (I know, they got good news from the FDA recently) -but they seem to be partnering with Ortho on that one - so Ortho will likely get a big share of potential profits. Plus there are always considerations such as downstream problems with patents or consumer demand. Haven't looked at the patent coverage but there are always generics out there looking for a way to invalidate patents on blockbusters (Prozac, etc.). Just a very risky business -

Eeyore said the same thing.

Sorry - I wish I saw it differently. Both my husband and I have spent our working years as patent attorneys for biotech companies (very large to very small). It was exciting in the late 80s and 90s, but there doesn't seem to be much going on anymore.

Submitted by flu on June 19, 2012 - 9:06pm.

Me thinks tomorrow the Fed is going to disappoint...

Submitted by flu on June 19, 2012 - 9:08pm.

Hey, Autotrader.com is going public.
LOL... That's going to be a fun one to watch...

Submitted by spdrun on June 19, 2012 - 9:12pm.

flu wrote:
Me thinks tomorrow the Fed is going to disappoint...

Everytime Ben has opened the hole under his nose, prices of necessities have gone up, acting as an anti-stimulus. Maybe if he were smart enough to keep his maw zipped, the economy would actually be closer to recovery.

Submitted by desmond on June 20, 2012 - 2:56pm.

njtosd wrote:
desmond wrote:
njtosd wrote:
For example, Arena appears to have nothing beyond phase 1 except Lorcaserin (I know, they got good news from the FDA recently) -but they seem to be partnering with Ortho on that one - so Ortho will likely get a big share of potential profits.

Eeyore said the same thing.

Sorry - I wish I saw it differently. Both my husband and I have spent our working years as patent attorneys for biotech companies (very large to very small). It was exciting in the late 80s and 90s, but there doesn't seem to be much going on anymore.

Arena is up 35% in the last 5 days and 405% ytd, it must take quite a bit to get you excited, for me not much................

Submitted by njtosd on June 20, 2012 - 4:00pm.

desmond wrote:
njtosd wrote:
desmond wrote:
njtosd wrote:
For example, Arena appears to have nothing beyond phase 1 except Lorcaserin (I know, they got good news from the FDA recently) -but they seem to be partnering with Ortho on that one - so Ortho will likely get a big share of potential profits.

Eeyore said the same thing.

Sorry - I wish I saw it differently. Both my husband and I have spent our working years as patent attorneys for biotech companies (very large to very small). It was exciting in the late 80s and 90s, but there doesn't seem to be much going on anymore.

Arena is up 35% in the last 5 days and 405% ytd, it must take quite a bit to get you excited, for me not much................

Your original post asked whether people expected a dot com style run up in biotech. My opinion is still - no. Will there be compounds that look promising? Absolutely.
Here's my question to you: what portion of the proceeds from Lorcaserin will Arena keep? It's supposed to manufacture for Eisai (sorry, the previous collaboration with Ortho was terminated), a Japanese company that will actually do the selling, and will get a portion of the proceeds (roughly 30-35%). And how will proceeds be calculated? If it was a great deal for Arena I think we'd know more about it . . . .

Submitted by desmond on June 20, 2012 - 5:02pm.

Never mind.

Submitted by desmond on June 21, 2012 - 2:35pm.

ARNA up over 11% today:

Arena Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:ARNA): Only eight days remain until Arena Pharmaceuticals’ FDA PDUFA date for its potentially huge obesity drug, Lorcaserin, possibly causing investors to feel more confident that a delay lasting 3-6 months. It should be noted that the company’s rival, Vivus, Inc.(NASDAQ:VVUS), announced a three month PDUFA delay for its drug Qnexa only eight days before its scheduled PDUFA date.

Submitted by flu on June 21, 2012 - 2:43pm.

desmond wrote:
ARNA up over 11% today:

Arena Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:ARNA): Only eight days remain until Arena Pharmaceuticals’ FDA PDUFA date for its potentially huge obesity drug, Lorcaserin, possibly causing investors to feel more confident that a delay lasting 3-6 months. It should be noted that the company’s rival, Vivus, Inc.(NASDAQ:VVUS), announced a three month PDUFA delay for its drug Qnexa only eight days before its scheduled PDUFA date.

I hope for your sake desmond everything goes as planned with the FDA...This was one of the best calls you made.... definitely. Should have listened to you.

Submitted by desmond on June 21, 2012 - 3:05pm.

Trigger finger.

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