San Diego Housing Bubble News and Analysis

I am not very familiar w/Carlsbad. If it were completely built out, are we to assume that no one is ever going to sell their house ever again? I mean, NYC is built out. A lot of major cities are built out. Maybe San Francisco is built out. That doesn't mean people don't move. Prices fluctuate w/whatever goes on in the real estate market, I would think. Some older neighborhoods are built out and then whole neighborhoods get rehabbed.

NYC is hardly built out when Trump can add 2,000 units on a 20,000 square foot lot by going 80 stories high. What the OP is refering to is the General Plan for Carlsbad which designates the areas that are approved for residential development and can only be amended with years of hearings, votes, etc. The last planned development for Carlsbad is Robertson Ranch in the northeastern part of the city. In the south once La Costa Greens and La Costa Ridge sell out there is only one other approved parcel which is for about 50 homes near La Costa Oaks. Obviously restricting supply will help home prices over the long haul. See Del Mar, Solana Beach and Encinitas for verification.

Well, technically, then, no place is built out. You have Trumps money, you can buy a whole city block, mow it down and build whatever you want, permits providing you can, where the money comes in, again.

I also heard that the Carlsbad city council has voted and decided that they aren't going to be making any more land there either.

Well, there you go. Better hurry and buy now. It's your last chance. ;)

Looks like a lot of land to me:

http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&hl=en&ge...

Looks like you could almost build another Carlsbad between Melrose and El Camino.

Another thing to think about is that an area can only support what it can support economically. There is generally going to be a balance between business and residential. If you are completely built out (or too expensive), don't expect business to grow past that point, where would they find employees? On the other hand, if you lose some of your businesses, or business doesn't grow, don't expect residential to hold it's value either as people move out in search of work elsewhere.

That's another good point, doofrat. Perfect example of Temecula, before and after.

Hello all I am a frequent reader but first time poster. I believe that C-Bad is almost built out or at it's numbers of housing stock limited by a growth cap put on back in the 80's. A lot of the land that is open is for Open Space preservation and will not be built on. It doesn't mean that rebuild's will not happen or that prices will go through the roof. It just means that large subdivisions and building tract homes is over. There will always be room for more density and rehab's.

On another note as a renter and a fence sitter I have to compliment you all for your comments and brains. I have found myself citing this site many times. Thanks for all the insite and I will be waiting for those prices to go lower.

Thanks,
PlannerBoy

The City has an updated one of these, but can't seem to locate right now.

http://www.carlsbadca.gov/planning/quadp...

Hi Amy -

To be honest with you, any answer that I would give about whether Carlsbad is fully built out would definitely be speculative. I think that Carlsbad is pretty diverse and the developments you are talking about off of Alga are not going to be affected much at this point regarding further development. As most developers right now are putting the brakes on all activity I kind of think that the point is rather moot for now. I think that the market is depressed enough such that lack of further development will not be able to push pricing up severely.

SD Realtor

There is a tremendous amount of Open land in Carlsbad as you head east. If the city is declared built out, it's because the local people/government would like it that way. If you are traveling the areas mentioned between Melrose and El Camino Real and various other areas, there is a ton of open space. I am also thinking around Faraday/El Camino Real area there is a lot of open space. I took my kid up to the Calavera Hills Park for a Pony game the other day, and took the back way up (Cannon which becomes College) and there was space around that area as well.