San Diego Housing Bubble News and Analysis

OK, I'll bite. My bet is, no way, unless its inches from th I-5 guard rail, and I wouldn't let my dog sleep in it.

I would agree with JJ... Del Mar/Solana Beach nope... Cardiff east of 5 in the small homes where you can hear the traffic.... maybe so...Encinitas west of 5 I don't see it but ya never know.

SD Realtor

Sounds about right, I doubt you could even find a good one that size for 2x that price. However, west of I-5 is definately the place to be on a nice day. The big downer for me is that it is gloomy and overcast for a big part of the day for 340 days of the year. It sometimes feels pretty chilly there compared to areas further inland.

Ok, how about this? What size home do you think $600K will buy in 2010 in that same area? Thanks. Perhaps I'm a tad too optimistic about home prices taking a deep plunge.

A 2 bedroom condo, built in the 70's or 80's.

Never say never.

Let's see how the credit bubble deflates. Keep your money ready at hand and you might find yourself a great deal.

I'm with Perry, keep your cash at the ready and when you rent, read your lease and make sure you can get out of it without too much in penalties in case the right house comes along. It is too hard to pick a month or a year and say that will be the bottom for a specific area but 2010 is as good a guess as any however 2008 or 2009 might see some interesting events. The problem with what you want is that you have picked one of the most desirable areas (not just in the county but the country if not the world) and you won't be the only one hunting for bargains. The premium areas aren't immune but they tend to dip last and will have more support at lower levels, your window of time of to act will be short. Go to zillow and find properties that you like that sold in 2003 and that will be close to what you can expect in 2009. Even if everything goes to hell, there will still be people with money and that is where they will want to live.

Well, this one is a bit north in the Carlsbad/Oceanside/Vista triangle, east of I5, but @ 3253 sqft & $184/sqft, can't be beat in value for money. May not suit you, but the point is, your dream is not only possible, but very probable. You have to wait only till the trough of the coming recession / stagflation.

http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printa...

Considering there were a lot of homes in La Jolla that sold for less than $400k prior to this last runup, I would think $600k in Encinitas for a reasonable home may very possibly occur by the time it's all over.

Outside of real estate circles, Six-Hundred Thousand Dollars is a lot of money.

I'd be a buyer for that at 700K (heck I'd be a buyer for that at $1M) so you would likely have to step over my dead body to get it. BTW, I'll have cash in hand also.

Yeah, but even you won't pull the trigger unless you think we're getting somewhere reasonably close to the bottom. You'd like it at $700k, but you'd LOVE it at $600k.

Well, hopefully by 2010 nearly everyone will think real estate is a bad investment so that there will be ample opportunities for those with cash-in-hand.

Thanks for the tips. I'll be sure to use them.

For the house you want: 2800 square feet spending 600,000, that 's 215/sf.

For Del mar, I see a range of 400/sqft to 2052 dollar/square feet for 2800 sqft homes.

Footnote: for the 400 dollars/square feet above in del mar, I see that house listing at $1,290,000 now.

There are plenty of rich people. They won't move anywhere so that you and I will be able to move in. The crash will basically affect the upper middle class areas, middle class and poor areas.

I think they'll be PLENTY of em around for that price...and maybe less

All bets are off on this economy with the coming credit crunch, it could get VERY bad out there...I personally think it will get bad....VERY bad.

There 4-5 things I can think of that are pointed DIRECTLY to the heart of this country and or our own and the worlds economy..... NONE of these scenarios end nicely 

Bugs,
I absolutely would pull the trigger at 700K, 800K, 900K or even $1M. It's about finding the right house more than the right price. The former is much more challenging where I am looking. Of course I'd love to pay 600K but I want what I want and will buy when I see it. I've only seen what I want about 2 or 3 times in the last 5 years and one of my clients is in escrow on one of them. I've got about 15 years to find it and will wait until I find what I want which is far more important to me than price.

FYI, you cant get a 2800 sq ft home in Del Mar unless you have a lot over 11,000 sq ft. I'm talking "Del Mar" not San Diego west of I-5 in the 92014 Zip. There is a difference. I wouldnt hold my breathe ever seeing something like that under $1.5M again.

Hope for a nuclear war, that is what it will take for this to happen. Barring that, no chance.